After the Pirates great walk off win on Wednesday there was much hyperbole in the local media. There were headlines that read that this walk off win may have saved the Pirate season. It reminded me some of the exaggerated excitement when the Pirates swept the Brewers in Pittsburgh right before the All Star break. It was like a 3 game sweep of the Brewers could make up for 94 games of mediocre play and many games just given away by bad baseball and horrendous bullpen work. The Pirates have put themselves in a position where they will not only have to play at a winning pace, they have not come close to playing all year, but it will require two of three teams to play mediocre to bad baseball. The Pirates have 33 games to play. The three teams in question the Padres, Diamondbacks, and Phillies have 34 games to play. Here are how the numbers have to play out for the Pirates just to get into a 4 way tie for the wild card spot. I do not have any idea how the tie breakers would work out so the Pirates may have to do even better than that.
Once this road trip is over the Pirates play 15 of their last 24 games at home. If the Pirates can go 6-3 on this road trip and 17-7 in September, they would finish the season with a record of 86-76. In their last 33 games they would have to play at a .697 winning percentage pace. If the Pirates could do this the Phillies would need to go 16-18, the Padres would need to go 18-16 and the Diamondbacks would go 19-15 for them all to finish with the same record of 86-76. This is the main reason that Baseball Reference puts the Pirates chances of getting into the postseason at 2.2%. The Pirate have to play their best baseball of the season and get some big time help from at least 2 other teams. This does not even take into account the Marlins and the Cardinals who are 1.5 and 2 games ahead of the Pirates. Can the Pirates even get on this hot of a streak? Does management even know how to go about making something like this even possible? That is the bigger question. My answer is they do not. Hopefully for the last time this season I will show what the Pirates should do, but we know they won’t, to have any chance of making the playoffs.
First thing they need to do is come up with a plan for the 5th starter. I would do the opener for Carmen Mlodzinski and see what happens. I would never let him start a game again. They do have a left hander down at Indianapolis, Connor Wietgrefe, who has started 10 games and has not done too badly. He has not set the world on fire but has had some solid outings, including an 8 inning stint giving up no runs. It would finally put a lefty in the rotation. He has pitched 3 years in the minors and has a 3.15 ERA in 53 starts. It would be a bold move that the Pirates would never make but anything has to be better than the way Mlodzinski is pitching. They need to get Ronny Simon back up. He is not that great but anything is better than Billy Cook. Finally, down the stretch they need to go with one lineup. If we are not down to the nitty gritty now, I do not know when that will be. Rafael Flores needs to catch everyday including day games after night games. Jared Triolo needs to move to shortstop every day, a major defensive position. Reynolds or Mangum need to DH. That leaves Horwitz, Lowe, Valdez, Gonzales, and Cruz to fill out the rest of the lineup. They need to play every day, no matter who the pitcher is, lefty or righty. Hopefully Griffin will come back on September 4th, and it will not be too late. Anything is possible in the world of sports. Over the next 2 weeks we should see if the season was saved by that walk off win on Wednesday. I would love for that to be true and see the Pirates make a real run at the playoffs. This Pirate coaching and managerial staff are just not capable of making the moves that could make it happen. Stay tuned.
