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Pirates Morning Report: The Current Pitching Staff

The Pirates last year had one of the best pitching staffs in all of baseball. That is the key phrase, one of the best. They had THE WORST OFFENSE in all of baseball, 2nd to none. This stat sums it up best. The Pirate pitchers had the 7th best ERA in baseball. Every team that had a worse ERA than the Pirates had a better record except for 4 teams. The Chicago White Sox 20th, the Minnesota Twins 24th, the Washington Nationals 29th and the Colorado Rockies 30th. The Pirates led the league in shutouts last year throwing 19. Twenty seven per cent of their wins were by shutout, the highest percentage in the league. The Pirates have lost 2 pitchers Johan Oviedo and Mike Burrows in exchange for more offense. Even though I have a sinking feeling that the Burrow loss may come back to haunt them, I do not criticize the trade. The Pirates had to do something. The staff looks still very strong. I will look at who I think should be there on opening day with the current crop of pitchers on the 40 man roster. That leaves Jared Jones off this list, but you know he will be returning sometime this year. We will include Jose Urquidy who is now on the 40 man roster.

I am going to do this a little differently. Instead of looking at the rotation and then the bullpen, I am just going to go down the list of players and decide where they will fit in and how likely that is to happen. Most likely, the Pirates will take 13 pitchers north when camp breaks. Who will those 13 be? Keeper No. 1, Braxton Ashcraft will be in the starting rotation. As long as he can avoid having control issues, he will probably be considered the no. 3 starter. Keeper no. 2, Hunter Barco, in my view, is the best candidate to hold down the 5th spot in the rotation. That could change if the Pirates add a veteran lefty. Even if that happens, I would keep him in the bullpen. Brandan Bidois had a great minor league run last year coming out of the bullpen. Not that likely to make the team, but he will be a great depth addition if injuries do come up. He was protected from the Rule 5 draft. Keeper No.3, Bubba Chandler will be in the starting rotation. Expect him to be the no. 2 starter. When he finally made it to the majors, he was spectacular. Wilber Dotel, another young strong arm for the Pirates, was protected from the Rule 5 draft. Again, nice depth, will start in the minors. Ryan Harbin, another Rule 5 protection, will start the season in AAA. Thomas Harrington had a rough 2025. He had a brief look at the MLB level and got knocked around pretty good. Unless there are injuries or he has a spectacular spring, he will start in AAA. He does have starter potential. Keeper No.4, Mitch Keller will be in the starting rotation. There is always hope that Keller will pitch as well as the Pirate broadcast booth says he pitches. They make him out to be another Walter Johnson. Even though he is not close to that, he is a solid average Major League starter, and that is nothing to sneeze at. He had the worst run support of any pitcher. Antwone Kelly, another young arm the Pirates have. He will start in the minors. Keeper No. 5, Justin Lawrence will be a solid bullpen member. In his first season, he had an injury that limited his innings. Hopefully, that is just a fluke. If he remains healthy, he will be a great high-leverage guy. Keeper no. 6, Isaac Mattson had a breakout year last year. Even if this was a fluke, there are plenty of arms to replace him, but I feel he is the real deal. Keeper no. 7, Carmen Mlodzinski. This is simple: bullpen yes, starting rotation no. Keeper no.8, Mason Montgomery. Left-handed bullpen addition. If the Pirates can get his control issues fixed, he will be awesome. Keeper no.9, Kyle Nicolas. Another pitcher who has great stuff, but location is a problem. If that is corrected he will be excellent. Yohan Ramirez. Simply no. I don’t know why they signed him. Even if there are injuries, I would choose the young guys before I would let him on the field. Cam Sanders and Evan Sisk are two left-handers who have been replaced. Keeper No.10, Dennis Santana. This is one of those guys who just goes along and quietly does his job. It is hard to say what the Pirates will do when it comes to closing. I would hope that they do it by committee. I feel that way is the best way. Having said that, I still will not mind it if the closer turns out to be Santana. Keeper no. 11, Paul Skenes, simply the ace of the United States. Keeper no. 12, Gregory Soto, the other lefty acquisition that should be a big upgrade coming out of the bullpen. Keeper no. 13, Jose Urquidy, certainly adds versatility to the staff. I see him coming out of the bullpen and making spot starts.

The wild card in all of this is the new pirate pitching coach, Bill Murphy. He comes from the pitching guru Houston Astros. He has been a big part of the pitching philosophy since 2017. Hopefully, he brings this successful philosophy with him. There is no question the 13 pitchers that are most likely to make this team have elite stuff. The issue has been putting that stuff where they want it. His 3 big projects should be Kyle Nicolas, Mason Montgomery, and the veteran Justin Lawrence. Believe it or not, Nicolas is the best of the group with a walk rate of 10.8%. Montgomery is at 12.9% and Lawrence is at 12.4%. If this pitching coach can find a way for these guys to get down to about 7 or 8%, this bullpen is going to be first-class. This is what makes Bubba Chandler so good. His walk rate is an amazing 3.2%. He is better than Skenes in that department, who has a 5.7% walk rate. Even though I think these are the 13 pitchers that will make the team at the moment, there is little room for error for this group. The young arms the Pirates have are chomping at the bit. The Pirates are not deep enough that they could absorb a slew of injuries, but they could weather a moderate storm for sure. Despite the upgrade on offense, the pitching is where this team is as strong as any in baseball. They will be even stronger when Jones returns. Their offense was solidly entrenched in 30th place last year. There was not another offense that was close to being as bad as they were. If they can improve to 16th to 19th, just below average, they will have a shot at the division.

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Pirates Morning Report: How Much Have The Pirates Improved

The Pirates have had their most active off-season in about 10 years. They will open the season with new players at 5 positions. Some of those players will be in-house, but nonetheless, they are not the players that played those positions on opening day. Their last acquisition, Marcell Ozuna, changed the whole dynamic of the team. Before this signing, I felt that the DH role would be pretty much by committee. It is a moot point now because Ozuna will be the full-time DH, if for no other reason than by default. This eliminates any possibility that the Pirates will sign McCutchen. All we can do is look at this team in its present state as spring training opens. In order to see how much the Pirates have improved, we will use one raw stat, OPS. This is the combination of on-base percentage added to the slugging percentage. This gives the total picture of how somebody is contributing to the offense of the team. I am not going to get into the comparison stat of OPS+. This takes in a lot of factors that could be argued. It is time to look at just the numbers. Let us see how this current Pirate team stacks up at the moment.

The players that are going to be playing the same position as they did last year will be the catching tandem of Joey Bart and Henry Davis. The other three will be Oneil Cruz CF, Bryan Reynolds RF, and Spencer Horwitz 1st base. Brandon Lowe will be the 2nd baseman. He will replace Nick Gonzales. Lowe’s OPS was .784 in 2025, compared to Gonzales’ at .661, an improvement of 123 points. Jared Triolo is set to start at 3rd base, replacing Ke’Bryan Hayes. Believe it or not, this will also be quite the upgrade. Triolo is at .667, while Hayes, when he was with the Pirates, was a pathetic .569, a 98-point improvement. At shortstop will be Gonzales. Gonzales will be a slight upgrade from Isiah Kiner-Falefa. Kiner-Falefa, despite the propaganda from the Pirate booth, was not all that productive with an OPS of .632. Neither one is anything to write home about, but the fact remains that Gonzales is a slight upgrade. In left field will be Ryan O’Hearn. He is replacing Tommy Pham. O’Hearn tops Pham .803 to .700, a 103-point increase. Last but certainly not least, Marcell Ozuna will be replacing Andrew McCutchen at the DH slot. Ozuna is a moderate upgrade from McCutchen with an OPS of .756 to McCutchen’s .700. There will be some that argue the Pirates are sacrificing defense for this decided upgrade in offense. A closer inspection shows that 2nd base, 3rd base, and shortstop grade out about the same between the players. The big difference is in left field, where Pham was a Gold Glove finalist, and O’Hearn is a decidedly below-average defender in left field. He is a very good fielding 1st baseman. The other caveat here is that these players have to at least repeat their offensive production of 2025. Although that is not a given, they could also improve upon their 2025 season. I really think that it is a flip of the coin which will happen. It will certainly determine how successful this 2026 season will be.

The Pirates can still make some moves. There are certain players that are expendable. The Pirates have prospects that teams should have an interest in. The other thing that the Ozuna signing did was practically guarantee that Rafael Flores will not go north with the team. Flores was the main piece in the David Bednar trade with the Yankees. He can play 1st base and catcher. This makes him, Bart, Davis, and Horwitz all expendable. The next expendable group would be Triolo, Gonzales, and Reynolds. Konnor Griffin and Password make them expendable. If the Pirates really wanted to make a bold move, they could move Oneil Cruz. Any of the above should bring in a good offensive 3rd baseman. What will the Pirates finally wind up doing with Jack Suwinski and Endy Rodriguez? Acquiring Ozuna took a lot of the flexibility out of the Pirate lineup. We will see if that turns out to be a good or a bad thing. The Pirates must feel that DH should be a full-time position. I must say that they may be right, but there is not a lot of data on that. Their lack of lineup flexibility does give them a lot of trade flexibility. Only time will tell, but it certainly looks like the Pirates have one or two more moves to make. We can only hope that they will be good ones.

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Sports: Super Bowl Wrap Up

I was right about this one for a change. The Seattle Seahawks dominated the New England Patriots, defeating them 29-13. The score and even the stats do tell the story of how bad the Seahawks made the Patriots look. Most of the stats were about the same for both teams. There were only 3 that gave any indication of how much of a blowout this was: the 3-0 turnover advantage the Seahawks had, the Seahawks sacked Drake Maye 6 times, and the Seahawks’ time of possession was 33:11 to 26:49 for the Patriots. The Patriots had a lot of garbage stats that made the game appear closer than it really was. The Patriots, for whatever reason, did not stick with their running game. They ran the ball 18 times for the game and had a 4.4 average per play. The Seahawks, on the other hand, ran the ball 32 times for exactly the same average. This is a legitimate stat because once the Patriots fell behind in the 4th quarter, they threw on almost every down. When the game was still in doubt, the Pats ran the ball fairly effectively, but did not push the issue. Drake Maye, who played more like Elly May, hardly ran at all. He did not seem to have much pocket presence. This is a player who during the regular season used his legs to win many a game, running for 38 first downs, second on the team. You had this sinking feeling that Seattle was going to let this one slip away at one point. New England was going to get the ball with just under 11 minutes to go in the game, and the score was 19-7. The Patriots had just pulled off a nice 3-play, 65-yard drive. The Seahawks punted the ball, and the Patriots’ deep man failed to catch it, allowing the ball to be downed on the 4-yard line. It cost the Pats at least 10 to 15 yards. Then Maye went into desperate pass mode for no reason. He got away with the first one, which allowed the Patriots to move from their own 4 to the 44. Then he threw desperate pass no. 2 and was not so lucky. This one was intercepted, and the game was essentially over. The stage was just a little too big for the 23-year-old. This Super Bowl is not going to make any top 10 lists, that is for sure. The Seahawks would have covered even with my spread of about 10 points. Pro football season is finally over. Congrats to the Seahawks. Let the baseball games begin.

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Sports: NFL Championship Game

This is going to be a brief blog. Tomorrow night the Seattle Seahawks will play the New England Patriots for the NFL Championship. I refuse to call this the Super Bowl because you all know how I feel about that. This is not going to be some in-depth analysis of the game. I am just surprised about the overall take on this game. The Seahawks are only 4.5 point favorites. There are many in the media that are picking the Patriots to win. Now I admit I have only seen the Patriots play 3 games this year: the regular season game against the Steelers and their 2 playoff games. They were awful against the Steelers, turning the ball over 5 times. They were very fortunate in both playoff games. C. J. Stroud personally handed the divisional round game to them. Denver lost their starting QB for the AFC Championship game. I guess one way you could look at this is to say New England may be a team of destiny. Anything can happen in a Championship decided by one game. This week you will not hear the famous NFL saying, “On any given Sunday, any team in the NFL can beat any other team.” That may be true, but I will be shocked if New England wins this Championship game. I will be surprised if Seattle does not cover. I expect this game to go the way it went when Seattle won their first and only NFL Championship. It was a 43-8 blowout win over the Denver Broncos. Is this just a ploy to get the New England fan base not to bet on their beloved Patriots? If I was a betting man, which I am too smart to be one, I would bet the house on the Seahawks. I am not advising anyone to do this, believe me. Betting is a fool’s game. The whole take on this game has my interest piqued. My own take on the game is that Seattle should be at least a 9 to 11 point favorite. I usually do not do a follow-up blog on this game. For this one, I will make an exception. I will be interested to see just how far off I am on this game or how far off the media is.

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Golf: Waiting For The Thaw

It has been another rough winter in Pittsburgh for golf. Last year I played 4 rounds in December, 0 rounds in January, and 2 rounds in February. This year I played 0 rounds in December, 2 rounds in January, and 0 rounds so far this month. We have had years when I played a decent amount of winter golf. In December 22 and January, February 23, I played 10 rounds. From December 23 through February 24, I played 16 rounds. The last two years have not come close. It becomes a challenge to get through the winter. I do write some blogs on other subjects. The Pirates have been a little more active in the off-season, so I have been able to write about that. I have two Momentus golf swing trainers that are only a little over 2 feet long that I swing in the house. One is an 8 lb. weight trainer, and the other is just a normal short club. I swing these about 20 to 30 times per day. This keeps the golf muscles in shape. It is hard to fill the rest of the day when you do something almost every day that takes 5 to 7 hours out of the day. Fortunately or unfortunately, I am old; just sitting and staring into space is considered normal for old people, so I do that and nobody bothers me.

I do get on YouTube a lot. I watch a lot of golf swings, both good and bad, and some old golf matches. I check out instruction to see what misinformation is out there. I have subscribed to four sites that I have found entertaining and helpful for my golf game. The first one is the Golf Ball Addict. He tests golf balls and recommends balls for the average golfer. It is an in-depth testing process, and it has definitely changed the way I think about golf balls. Even if I did not think this guy was correct in his testing, he is a very entertaining fellow. That’s the bonus; he knows what he is doing and is entertaining. If you want to play the right golf ball and save a ton of money, check the Golf Ball Addict out. Next, we have Black and White Golf. Why they call it Black and White Golf, I have no idea. It is about 2 guys playing various courses in West Virginia and they play various formats. In a nutshell, they stink at the game. They know this, so it’s cool. One is a little better than the other. One has a full beard, and the one with the full beard aims so far right that the only way he can get a ball in play is to hit these huge pull hooks. He pulls this shot off about three times per round. Sometimes they both hit trees and buildings more often than they do the fairway. The bearded one did make a hole in one. They are fun to watch, and I think someday they will play better. The third site is Mr. Short Game Golf. This guy has by far the most followers. I have just been watching him now for about three weeks. I like his style, and the instruction is fine. The only thing I get a big kick out of is that it’s like everything he tells you is a big secret. When he gets to the key point of the instruction, he lowers his voice just a little. It is like he is only telling you, and nobody else will find out. It is actually a little bit of his appeal. Then the final site is a typical good-looking female golfer who has a fair game of golf. In this case, her name is Karin Hart. As she tells you, her first name is pronounced like “Car.” What is best about her is that most of her videos are short and make no sense, but she is great to look at and does not have a bad swing. I can think of worse ways to pass the time.

Right now, I would not even begin to hazard a guess when I may be setting foot on a golf course. I would say the earliest would be around February 25th. We have a lot of snow on the ground. I would love to see the Pirates make some kind of news, even if it is some kind of dumb signing or trade. All I know is the thaw cannot come fast enough. This is the 2nd winter in a row like this. It makes me think that next year I will be planning a winter trip. I am going to Phoenix in March to see my youngest grandson play in a Little League tournament. I may be checking out possibilities for next year. Even the South is cold right now. There is a little more daylight now, and that has helped. Thank God February is only 28 days. Too bad June and July can’t have 45 days.

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Pirate Morning Report: Who Would McCutchen Replace

There has been a lot of support for the Pirates to sign Andrew McCutchen. It gained some momentum when he was not at the recent Pirate Fest. I was hoping to write this blog after the Pirates made a move to upgrade 3rd base. That still could happen any day now, but I want to put my 2 cents in before this “sign McCutchen” rally gets any more ridiculous. Both social media and the local sports media have been really pushing this. If the Pirates were to sign McCutchen, it would show that they have fallen prey to sentimental slop rather than trying to win games. Let’s make a 13-man roster just for fun. This roster would not contain Konner Griffin, who I think has a good chance to make the team, but it would be unusual for the Pirates to make such a bold move even if he has a great spring training. We will make this roster very basic and then look at who McCutchen would replace on this roster if they signed him. The proponents of signing McCutchen point to the fact that the Pirates had a lot of players not having an OPS over .650, and adding McCutchen would make the team better. Have they not looked? We have a new team. I will pick 13 players to make the team with their 2025 OPS next to their name. McCutchen could have been an asset if he played 3rd base or catcher. He claims that he can still play the outfield, but the Pirates must not feel that way because they rarely put him in the field. In 2025, he played 7 games in the field and only played the entire game out in the field in 4 of them. Let’s look at a possible 13-man roster.

Things could change. Players could be traded. Another free agent could be signed making this even more crowded. Here are the 13 players that could make the team. Where noted I have put some players AAA OPS because of so few appearances in the Major Leagues. Joey Bart .696. Henry Davis .512 Nick Gonzales .661 Spencer Horwitz .787 Oneil Cruz .676 Bryan Reynolds .720 Brandon Lowe .785 Ryan O’ Hearn .803 Jake Mangum .698 Jared Triolo . 667 Jhostynxon Garcia .833 (AAA) Nick Yorke .825 (AAA) Rafael Flores .791 (AAA) The league average for OPS last year was .719. Naturally the Pirates were last with .655. McCutchen had an OPS of .700 last year, which is below league average. I would assume that this is not what you want from your DH. This 13 man roster does not include Jack Suwinski who the Pirates signed for 1 year and could make the team. It also does not include Endy Rodriquez whose short career has been marred by injuries. If he looks good this spring, could he make the team. As mentioned before this does not include Konner Griffin. Do you think he will stay down in AAA for the entire season, very unlikely.

This brings us back to the initial question. If the Pirates sign McCutchen, whose spot on the 13-man active roster is he going to take? Are you again going to stop the development of Nick Yorke, Password, or Rafael Flores for a below-average DH just because he is a franchise icon? All three of these players have spent 4 to 5 seasons at the minor league level. In my view, it’s time to put up or shut up. It is time for the youth movement to begin. The Pirates could swing some kind of trade that may open up some spots. If they sign Eugenio Suarez, the roster will tighten up even more. This is a good thing if, AND THAT IS A BIG IF, the Pirates make the right decisions when it comes to roster construction. Performance during spring training will have some impact on all of these decisions. We all know that spring training performance does not necessarily translate into regular season performance in both ways. At the present moment, the Pirates need to make a few more moves to make this team into a contender. Signing McCutchen is not one of them.

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Prompt: Family Traditions

Write about a few of your favorite family traditions.

The prompt is making quite an assumption there by asking for a few family traditions. With my grandparents I guess one tradition could be surviving the depression. I really did not think we had any family traditions. I ask my new friend ChatGPT what a family tradition is? It gave quite a broad answer. Not only that, it gave me suggestions for me to start my own family traditions. With such a broad definition I guess my Mom and Dad and I did do some things on a regular basis. During the winter we went bowling every Saturday night. During the summer my Dad and I went golfing almost every weekend. My Mother and I went to Sunday school almost every week. That had such a positive effect on me that I never go to church as an adult. I feel my life is much better off and more fulfilled because of that. I think my Dad the atheist influenced me there. There were lots of things my parents and I did on a regular basis but I never looked at them as family traditions. Thanks AI for opening my eyes. We are snowed in here in Pittsburgh with frigid temperatures predicted forever. I will be responding to all the prompts no matter how silly I think they are over the next week or two. I will be writing other blogs here and there. Right now I am going to start a new family tradition. I am going to start shoveling snow. I am going to take my time since I am old and feeble. I should be done by Easter. That reminds me of another family tradition. Being pissed off about a holiday being on Sunday.

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Sports: Championship Sunday

A lot of people like the first round of the playoffs in the NFL. You will hear them say it is their favorite week of pro football. My favorite week of pro football is Championship Sunday. Maybe because of the 8 or 9 years I watched pro football and the last game of the year was called the NFL or AFL Championship game. It could be because about 90% of the time these two games are better than the Super Bowl. When the Super Bowl gets closer I will probably reblog my feelings on the Super Bowl. I feel that it is the most disgusting event in the history of sports. Getting back to the task at hand discussing the two championship games today. It is a bit of a unique Championship Sunday because for the first time in 7 years the Kansas City Chiefs will not be playing. The Denver Broncos will not have their starting quarterback. Denver and Seattle will be making their first appearance in the Championship game in about 10 and 11 years, respectively. It’s hard to believe but New England has not been to a Championship Game since 2019. The Los Angeles Rams have the most recent success, winning the Super Bowl of the 2021 football season. We have two veteran quarterbacks for the Rams and Seahawks. New England has a young quarterback, and as mentioned, the Broncos have no quarterback. Not really, but Jarret Stidham is 29 years old, has not started a game since 2023, and did not have a meaningful play in 2025. This situation harkens back memories to 1965 when another team, the Baltimore Colts, had their quarterbacks decimated by injury going into a playoff game against the Green Bay Packers to settle who won the Western Conference.

Back in those days, since there were only 14 teams, if there were any ties, they were played off on the field. The Packers had beaten the Colts twice during the regular season, and they did get home field advantage. Not only did the Packers get home field, but the Colts were without Johnny Unitas and their 2nd-string QB Gary Cuozzo due to injuries. They wound up starting Tom Matte, a former Ohio State quarterback under Woody Hayes. He had played running back for the last 5 years for the Colts. You can imagine how little he threw the ball in a Woody Hayes offense in the early 60s. The Packers went into the game as solid favorites. On the first series of the game, odds changed dramatically. Bart Starr threw a pass in flat about 7 yards down the field to tight end Bill Anderson. He turned and was hit immediately by the Baltimore defender. The ball popped out and was picked up by a Baltimore player who returned it for a touchdown. What I find interesting about the play is that under today’s rules, the pass may have been ruled incomplete. Not only did the Colts jump out to a 7-0 lead, but Bart Starr was injured on the play while trying to make the tackle. The Packers were down to their 2nd-string QB Zeke Bratkowski. The Packers were able to move the ball most of the day but kept making mistakes, and the Colts had a big goal-line stand in the 1st half. The Colts managed to kick a field goal and had a 10-0 lead at the half. The Packers continued to move the ball and finally scored late in the 3rd quarter. The Colts were holding on and looked like they might pull off the big upset. With about 2 minutes to go, Don Chandler had a short 22-yard field goal to tie the game. It carried right over the left upright, and many thought it was no good, but the officials called it good to tie the game. Like everything else, the NFL waited about 3 to 4 years so it would not be obvious, but this was the impetus to make the goalposts longer so it would be easier to tell if the kick was good or not. The game went into overtime, and after two exchanges on offense, the Packers, on their 3rd possession in overtime, drove down the field, and Chandler won the game on a similar length field goal. This one was right down the middle, and the Packers escaped with a 13-10 overtime win.

Will we see an unknown backup send the Denver Broncos to the Super Bowl? I have a feeling we will. Denver does have the home-field advantage. The high altitude may affect the Patriots more than the Broncos. The Broncos had a thrilling overtime win against the Buffalo Bills. The Patriots were practically handed their victory on a silver platter by C.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans. Even as inexperienced as the Bronco QB is, I do not see him playing as badly as Stroud. Drake Maye, the young QB for the Patriots, has a tendency to fumble a lot. This game will boil down to who runs the ball better. Yes, turnovers can be a factor, as they are in any game. Even with their QB, I think Denver has what it takes to pull this one out. In the NFC, the Seattle Seahawks have been dominant. Eleven of their fifteen wins were by 8 points or more. Their 3 losses were by a total of 9 points. They have won 8 in a row. The two games with the Rams have been close, hard-fought games. In the 2nd meeting, Seattle made an unbelievable comeback, scoring 16 points in the 4th quarter to wipe out a 30-14 deficit. The game went into overtime, with the Rams scoring a touchdown. Seattle scored a touchdown and then made their 3rd straight 2-point conversion to pull it out 38-37. The Rams have had 2 hard-fought playoff wins. Will that take it out of them or make them tournament tough? Again, I think home field will be a factor, and Seattle will pull out the win. Either way, I know I will be watching because, in my view, this is the last week of the professional football season.

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Sports: College Football Playoffs: Championship Game

Tomorrow night the college football season will end with Indiana and Miami facing off in the 2nd 12-team playoff championship game. Indiana has been very impressive with 2 blowout wins against Alabama and Oregon. Miami had to play a first-round game, which was a tough defensive struggle against Texas A&M, winning 10-3. They shut down Ohio State in the first half, and the defense added a pick-six to build a 14-0 halftime lead. Ohio State tried to come back, but the Miami offense was able to move the ball in the 4th quarter to pull out a 24-14 win. Against Mississippi, the Miami defense went into more of a bend-but-don’t-break mode, keeping them out of the end zone 4 times, limiting them to field goals each time. It was the difference in their last-minute win, 31-27. Indiana is the favorite, and rightfully so. They have been as impressive as any team could be in their first 2 playoff wins. Fernando Mendoza has had the hot hand in both of their wins. For the two games, he is 31 for 36, gaining 369 yards. That is an 86% completion rate. He has 8 touchdown passes and 0 interceptions. I have been split every round with my predictions. I also think Indiana will win the championship game. I do not see how you can go against them. Will I be shocked or even surprised if Miami pulls off the upset? Absolutely not. Here is what they have to do.

They need to keep Indiana out of the end zone just like they did against Mississippi. Can they eke out a turnover? This is not easy to do against a team that really protects the ball. In the last 3 games, they have turned the ball over only once on an interception against Ohio State. That was late in the 1st quarter of the Big Ten Championship game. Indiana has not turned the ball over for 11 quarters. The Miami offense has to avoid the 3-and-outs. They need at least to get a 1st down or two on every possession. Indiana’s defense is the best unit that Miami has faced. Special teams are good for both teams, but again Miami needs something to happen in that area if they are going to have a chance. Something negative for Indiana or positive for Miami. Both head coaches are intense. The Miami coach has been quite animated in the previous playoff games. If things do not go well for the Hurricanes in this game, he literally may not survive it. If Indiana wins convincingly, it should go down as one of the greatest seasons in college football history because of the playoff format now in effect. I would love to see an exciting down-to-the-wire championship game. Miami needs a lot to happen to make that possible. Their offense is the key to victory. They are hot right now. My guess is that Indiana’s defense will cool them off. However, if they do not, then it should be a great Monday night of college football.