Month: October 2021

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Sports: The World Series

The World Series starts tomorrow in Houston, with the Astros taking on the Atlanta Braves. Thank God, the Braves were able to beat the L. A. Dodgers, or what a World Series that would have been. I was already to write about the series between the highest payroll team vs. the cheaters. Who would you want to win that one, like nobody. Even with the one feel good story, of Dusty Baker, having the chance to cap off a great managerial career, with his first World Series Championship, is not enough to keep one from hoping, that the Astros get destroyed. Atlanta is an easy team to root for, with all the things, that they have had to overcome, to get to the World Series. By playing the Astros, they will have a vast majority of baseball fans pulling for them. Houston will be favored, and has the home field advantage, but Atlanta definitely has what it takes, to pull off one more upset. What does Atlanta have to do in order to win the series. This is by far one of the easiest series to analyze.

The Houston Astros have played 10 post seasons games. There has been only one game, where they did not score at least 5 runs, and in that game they scored 3. There were 7 games that they got 10 or more hits. Contrast that with the Braves who in 10 games, only scored 5 or more runs 4 times with 3 of those games being 5 on the number. They only got double digit hits in 4 games. The Astro lineup has been hitting throughout the playoffs. The simple key to this World Series, will the Astros keep on hitting. As was proven in the post season, hitting can quickly come and go. This post season has been highlighted by teams crushing the ball for one or two games, and then seeing their bats go south, for the next game or two. The only consistent hitting team, up to this point, is those cheatin Houston Astros. The Atlanta bullpen has been superb, but will it run out of gas, the way Tampa Bays did, in last years World Series. The Braves hitting has been up and down all year, but should be able to have a good DH in Jorge Soler, who does seem to be hot right now. From a statistical point of view the matchup is very even except in one area. Defensive efficiency rating, The Astros were .713, the Braves .708, a dead heat. In OPS+ the Astros were 2nd in all of baseball with 113, while the Braves were 96 which placed them 15th, giving a big edge to the Astros. In ERA+ both teams are exactly the same at 114. It is those Astros bats at the basic statistical level, that make them the favorite to win it all. During the regular season, the Astros had one stretch of 7 games where they did not score more than 4 runs per game, and once they were shut out 2 games in a row. It will boil down to how long the Astros can keep on hitting, and whether or not Atlanta can stretch the series to go 6 to 7 games, which will increase the chances, of the Astros bats, cooling off. Let’s hope the Braves can do it, to make things right in the world again. Well, I don’t know if that will make everything right in the world, but I would like to see it happen, anyway.

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Sports: Baseball, The Final Four

After a long season, we are down to the final four teams in baseball. Three of the four were there last year, after the biggest playoff, in baseball history. The new team to the party is the Boston Red Sox, who upset the Tampa Bay Rays in 4 games, to play the losers of last year’s championship final, the Houston Astro’s. The National League final will be a rematch, between the L. A. Dodgers and the Atlanta Braves, with only difference being, the Braves will have the home field for 4 of a possible 7 games. We all know what happened in the division series, with the 5th game of the Dodger-Giant series being marred by a horrible check swing call. The first base umpire wasn’t the only one to have a bad night, as the home plate umpire made some very bad balls and strikes calls, that probably affected the outcome of game. Umpiring over the last 5 years, has deteriorated to the point of being barely competent. If the umpires ever go on strike again, the scabs will be an improvement. Last nights home plate umpire, should be the poster child for the electronic strike zone. Enough about the past, let’s get to the future.

There is no doubt that the most hated team in all of sports, at the moment, is the Houston Astro’s. The fact that the fans cheer, when a Houston player gets hit by a pitch, leaves no doubt. Even getting Dusty Baker his first World Series Championship, to put a big exclamation point, on a long and illustrious managerial career, won’t be enough to quell the venom that every fan base feels against the Astro’s. Of course on the other side, you have Alex Cora, the manager of the Red Sox, the supposed brains of the sign stealing method that the Astro’s used. No matter who wins this series, the National League representative will have the overall fan base behind them, even if it is the Dodgers. There is no doubt, that at the moment Houston is swinging the bat better than any of the other 3 teams. If they can continue to do so, then I see no stopping them from getting into the World Series. But hitting can disappear faster than a magicians assistant and if by some pitching magic, the Red Sox can hold the Astro’s to 4 runs or under per game then they may have a fighting chance.

In the National League Championship Series unless the bats of both teams wake up, then runs are going to be hard to come by. All of these games should be close, hard fought games. The Dodgers will be the favorites, but what is interesting about the Braves is, that this is their 4th consecutive year in the playoffs, and they have improved their performance in each of the 3 previous years. The only way they can improve their performance this year, is by going to the World Series. There is no doubt that this is a playoff hardened team. To have gotten this far as been amazing, since they lost Ron Acuna Jr. to injury, and Marcell Orzuna to legal problems, for most of the season. As stated before, they will have the home field for this series, but will that be enough. This time it will depend on the Dodger bats. Will they remain asleep, or will the Dodger offense start to wake up, and score a slew of runs. Only time will tell. I am looking forward to a great week of baseball. Now, if we can only find some competent umpires.

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Sports: Pirates, The Season is Over

The Pirate season came to a merciful end yesterday, with a 6-3 loss to the Cincinnati Reds. The Pirates failed to get a series sweep the entire year, which marks the first time in baseball history, that a team went the season, failing to do so. We all know that this team was bad, despite what the shills in the broadcast booth say. Here are a few of things that the shills said in order to get you to believe, that there was something positive about the way the Pirates played baseball. The Pirates have improved their defense greatly. Well, if you improve from 30th, which is dead last, to 24th in the defensive efficiency stat, that is an improvement, but is that really significant. The Pirates are still in the bottom third, when it comes to fielding. They actually declined, from last years short season, when they were 15th. In the booth, they rave about Kevin Newman’s fielding. He is not that great a fielder. In all the comprehensive defensive stats, when it comes to shortstops, he is just in the middle of the pack. The idea, that the Pirates have major league players on their team, is another example of trying to hoodwink the fans. Let’s take a look at that claim from a statistical point of view, without the shill bias. There are statistics that give you an overview of a player’s value. Wins Above Replacement (WAR) is an overall value stat of a player. It includes all facets of a players game, which includes, batting, fielding, and baserunning, and the volume of playing time. A major league player should have a WAR of 2.0 to be considered a big league player and a contributor to the team. The other two stats that tell you if you are an average major league player is is ERA+ for starting pitchers and OPS+ for batters. This rates the overall performance of a pitcher and a batter with 100 being an average major league player. Being an average major league player means you are pretty damn good. Just ask the Pirates, who have very few. So who are these elite Pirates?

Starting at the top of course, is Bryan Reynolds, with a WAR of 6.0 and an OPS+ of 146. These are all star quality numbers. He is a good fielding center fielder but not an elite fielder, that the shills would have you believe. However, he is a top 20 major league player. . Next is Jacob Stallings with a WAR of 3.0. He is one of the best defensive catchers in baseball, and is a solid contender for a gold glove. His OPS+ is 92 which is below league average, but his defense more than makes up for this. Some people feel, that he will be the next to go in the Pirate rebuild, but I hope that is not true. His value behind the plate will only magnify, by mentoring both the young pitching staff, and the young catchers that will be coming up. Next on the list, is Ke’Bryan Hayes with a WAR of 2.4. His defense at 3rd is second to none, and you have to hope that his hitting decline was due to the injured wrist, that never quite healed, which led to a very disappointing OPS+ of 89. Even with that defense, his hitting has to improve next year. The last major leaguer the Pirates have is relief pitcher David Bednar with a WAR of 2.1 and an ERA+ of 190. He was about as solid as a pitcher could be, coming out of the bullpen. His FIP was 2.69 and WHIP under 1. That is the end of the list. Now, as stated previously WAR is a volume stat, and there were some Pirates, who did perform at an above average major league level, but did not get enough playing time to get that high of a WAR number, or were just really bad in one area of the game, which caused them to have a WAR under 2. So who should, or could, be on the team next year and contribute to a successful season.

First, let’s get out of the way, the list, that if this regime is serious, should not be on the team next season, for various reasons: Cole Tucker, Kevin Newman, Colin Moran,(even if the NL goes to a DH), Michael Perez, Wilmer Difo, and Phillip Evans. I don’t know if anybody in the starting rotation, should be back, but somebody has to pitch. I suppose you have to give Mitch Keller, one more chance. The two late season acquisitions, Bryce Wilson and Dillon Peters, might be worth a second look. There is always hope, that J. T. Brubaker, might find his previous form. There were some young spot starters, that showed some potential, but everyone of them at some point, got rocked. In a nutshell, the starting rotation is just plain pathetic. In the bullpen, there were two, that did perform at an above average level, with a decent volume of work. Chris Stratton and Chasen Shreve each had ERA+ over the 100 mark at 116 and 132, respectively. Are there any other Pirates that deserve another look? Not many, but here is the list. Anthony Alford, because he did look better the second time around, compared to that awful way he started the season. He wound up with a .4 WAR and an OPS+ of 94. Compare that, with the shill’s favorite player, Kevin Newman’s WAR of .7 and an OPS+ of, are you ready, 56, ouch. Then there is Yoshi Tsutsugo, who as a Pirate had an OPS+ of 136, but he was a major liability in the field. If the NL goes to the DH, then he is a keeper. Even if they don’t, just put him at first base to replace the stoic Moran ,who is just horrible in the field. That just about rounds it out, so the Pirates have lots of places to fill.

I know, that most of what I am going to write in this paragraph is not going to happen, but some of it might, depending on what happens with the new collective bargaining agreement. I am not going into any details, but how rookies are perceived for their first year of service, and when free agent eligibility happens, could change the basic philosophy of major league teams. On opening day, the shortstop and second basemen for the Pirates should be named Cruz and Castro. Brian Reynolds should be flanked by at least one new outfielder, if not two. The starting rotation should have at least 2 new members and both should be 24 years or younger. Even if the results are not perfect, let’s hope we see an influx of new talent come up to the major league level, right at the start of the season. Let’s hope that this bodes well for the future, because it is essentially, here now. Hopefully, the Pirate fans will not have to endure another season like this, where the team plays just bad baseball, and never wins more than 3 games in a row. This great city deserves so much more.

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