Month: October 2024

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Pirate Morning Report: 2024 Season Wrap Up, The Players

Sit back, relax, have a vomit bag by your side, as we go through the Pirate roster and how they performed in 2024. I will discuss whether they should be on the team next year and at the end of this blog write about what the Pirates will need if they are to be successful next year. We are going to look at what each player’s wins above replacement is. Those not familiar with WAR, it is a way of evaluating a player’s overall performance. The way he bats, fields, pitches, and runs the bases. It is simply a number. A number 0 or less says he belongs in the minors. 0-2 he is a good bench player. 2-4 is a starter. 5+ is an All Star. If you reach 8, it means you are an MVP. Trust me you are not going to see any position players for the Pirates over 5. I will admit WAR is not perfect but all in all it is a very good way to evaluate players. We will discuss other aspects of a player’s year when needed. We will look at the comparison stat of OPS+ for hitters and ERA+ for pitchers. Again, this is simply a number with 100 meaning you are league average. Don’t expect to see many Pirates even at this level. To give some perspective Aaron Judge who will most likely be the MVP in the American League has a WAR 10.8 and an OPS+ 223. Pirate faithful can only dream about having such a player. Without further ado here are your 2024 Pirate player performances taking them in the order that you find them on Baseball Reference.

Yasnani Grandal: WAR 0.6 OPS+ 95 Grandal perked up some toward the end of the season but given his age and injury history he should not be back next year. Endy Rodriguez will be returning and I am satisfied with Jason Delay as a backup catcher. The most surprising thing about Grandal is, he graded out an average defensive catcher. I thought he was much worse than that. Regardless he is gone.

Rowdy Tellez: WAR minus O.4 OPS+ 91 Even though Tellez is already off the team there were some out there that thought he should be resigned for the same price. You have got to be kidding. He is a below average fielder and basically a terrible player. Glad he did not get that bonus. Hopefully never to be seen again on any team but I doubt it.

Nick Gonzales: WAR 0.9 OPS+ 96 Gonzales did show big improvement over his smaller sample size 2023, but he is still a below average hitter but not by much. He is an average defender which is not bad. For a free swinger he did not hit many home runs and slugged only .398. Hopefully he will continue to make progress. Most likely will be starting in the infield. Player no. 1 to be back.

Oneil Cruz: WAR 2.4 OPS+113 Cruz is the first Pirate listed that deserves to start in the major leagues. His WAR would be higher if he was not such a horrible defender. Cruz has an unlimited ceiling and coming off his ankle injury, his season was a definite success. He finished poorly at the plate, hitting only .167 over the last 15 games. With a spring training under his belt next year in centerfield let’s hope he gets comfortable out there. A big year from Cruz will go a long way toward making the Pirates contenders next year. Player no. 2.

Ke’Bryan Hayes: WAR 0.8 OPS+ 61 I thought Hayes would be one of the keys to the season and I was right. He never came remotely close to performing the way he did in the last 2 months of 2023. It could have been his back but who knows. There is no question he is an elite defender. His contract is very club friendly. Despite all of that I think the Pirates should cut ties and hope to get a couple of mid prospects. He might be part of a bigger trade but in my mind unlikely.

Bryan Reynolds: WAR 3.7 OPS+ 119 Reynolds had a solid year in 2024 ending a downward slide since 2021. The fact remains he did not approach his 2021 season. It is probably unlikely that he ever will. There is talk of moving him to first base. I don’t have a big problem with that. He is still not a player who is going to put a club on his back and carry it for a couple of weeks. Player no. 3.

Michael Taylor: WAR 0.9 OPS+ 51 Michael Taylor had a bad year at the bat even for him, Still an elite fielder but not enough to compensate for a very weak bat in 2024. Should not be back.

Bryan De La Cruz: A trade deadline pick up that needs to be just thrown away. WAR negative 1.8 OPS+ 77. Those were his numbers for the year. He was even worse than that with Pirates. A negative fielder, I see no plus side to Cruz and he should be dropped like a hot potato.

Andrew McCutchen: WAR 0.8 OPS+ 105 The Pirates had the 20th best DH in baseball. McCutchen took the majority of bats at DH by far. I do not know if the Pirates will resign him. I was ambivalent last year on whether the Pirates should have signed him. This year if this team is really going to improve then he should not be signed. We will see what happens.

Jared Triolo: WAR 1.3 OPS + 71 Another one of the big disappointments this year. He digressed greatly in every offensive area. Batting average dropped 82 points. On base percentage dropped 92 points! Slugging dropped 83 points. He did perk up a bit at the end of the year but he did that last year for a longer period of time. You know that old saying fool me once. Despite that I am willing to give Triolo one more shot because of his versatility, especially if they get rid of Hayes. Player no. 4

Connor Joe: WAR 0.6 OPS+ 92 I did not like that they signed him last year. He got off to a hot start and I felt like I had to eat some crow. His last 30 games his batting average was .167. He should not be on team next year. If he is then 2025 is another loser.

Joey Bart: WAR 2.0 OPS+ 120. Bart had never hit this well in the past but maybe he found something. Regardless he should be the no.1 catcher next year. Player no.5

Jack Suwinski WAR Negative 1.8 OPS+ 63. Another reason the Pirates did not make a run. His production was off by 50%. Didn’t even do that well in AAA with slash line of .239/307/444. Also a negative defender big time. Time to cut him loose.

Isiah Kiner-Falefa: His Pirate numbers. WAR .4 OPS+63 The Pirates insisted in using him as a lead off hitter which is the best way to kill an offense that is close to death anyway. Needs to settle into one position with my preference being 3rd base where he won a gold glove. Player no.6.

Henry Davis: WAR Negative .7 OPS+28. Yikes. Did impress in AAA 307/401/555. I don’t think you can give up on Davis quite yet. Player no.7 if he has a good spring.

Ji Hwan Bae. The mystery man of 2024. His AAA Slash line 342/433/504. Why he can’t come close to those numbers in the majors may be one of the big failings of the Pirates. He is one of the fastest men in baseball and an average fielding outfielder. With his tools you would think he would be an asset. A new hitting coach may help both he and Davis. Player no.8

Nick Yorke and Billy Cook: Two late season call ups that seem to have potential. Yorke is only 22 and Cook is 25. They both had their moments but nothing spectacular but it was a very small sample size. One or both could be on the team next year especially if the Pirates trade Triolo.

Before we go to the pitchers it is obvious what the Pirates need. A corner outfielder and a first basemen. Endy Rodriguez if healthy will be player no.9. If they sign McCutchen he will make 10. 3 players need to be obtained by trade or free agency, depending on what they do with the last two young players mentioned and McCutchen. If Reynolds does move to 1st base then 2 corner outfielders will be needed. Now to the pitchers.

Mitch Keller: WAR 2.0 ERA+99. Keller is Keller, a solid mid-rotation starter. Like any mid-rotation starter he is going to have his ups and downs. The only problem with Keller is the Pirate broadcast booth trying to make him into one of the best pitchers in baseball, which he is not. However, a definite asset and pitcher no. 1, rotation.

Bailey Falter: WAR 1.7 ERA+95. After that horrendous 1st start I thought he should never take the mound again. I was wrong on that one as Falter had a very good season considering he had a lot of hard luck, not a lot of run support and most of the time was going up against the other teams best pitcher. All in all he held his own. Pitcher no 2, should be considered for the bullpen with all the help they need.

Paul Skenes: WAR 6.0 ERA+214. What can you say except the Pirates better lock him up on a long term deal. Some people think 25 mil. for 6 years but frankly that is not enough. I think you have to go 30. Do one thing right management, for a change. Pitcher no. 3, rotation ace. Opening day starter.

Jared Jones: WAR 1.8 ERA+101 Jones definitely has the tools. His Achilles heel was the long ball. Had an injury that set him back but unlimited potential here. Pitcher no.4, rotation but could he be the future closer. A novel idea that is way too out of the box for the Pirate brain duds.

Luis Ortiz: WAR 3.1 ERA+126 Many people are saying that Ortiz should be used in a trade to get a bat. No way. Had a great turn around year and needs to stay on this team. Pitcher no.5, rotation but again what better way to shore up the bullpen than using Ortiz as a high leverage set up man.

David Bednar: WAR negative 0.9 ERA+73 By far the most disappointing year of any of the pitchers. His problem was easy to see but evidently hard to fix. Ever since the All Star break of 2023 he has lost command of his secondary stuff. In the first 90 games of 2023 he walked 2 batters and one of those was intentional. Ever since, he walks almost one every outing. You’re not going to get rid of Bednar just because of one bad year. Pitcher no.6, bullpen but what role hard to tell.

Aroldis Chapman: WAR 0.4 ERA+111. Chapman still has the velocity at age 36. The only question with Chapman is would he even want to resign with the Pirates after watching the debacle of this past season. If yes, should the Pirates try to resign him. Short answer, no.

Kyle Nicolas: WAR: 0.2 ERA+106. Nicolas has great stuff but control is the issue. Hopefully someone will finally teach these guys to get the ball over the plate. Pitcher no.7, bullpen.

Colin Holderman: WAR 0.7 ERA+133. Mr. Colin Holderman, I create my own jams and most of the time I get out of them. Had the mysterious wrist injury coinciding with a period of ineffectiveness. I unenthusiastically keep him on the team. Maybe a new bullpen coach helps him. Pitcher no. 8, bullpen.

Carmen Mlodzinski: WAR 0.8 ERA+125. Not quite as effective as he was in 2023, but still solid none the less. Hopefully can stay healthy next year. Pitcher no. 9

Dennis Santana: WAR 1.3 ERA+173. Santana had the best stretch of his career once he got with the Pirates. Whatever he or the coaching staff found let’s hope it lasts. Pitcher no. 10, bullpen

Jalen Beeks and Ryan Borucki: I put these guys together because neither one should be on the team next year. I will admit Beeks’s stats are not that bad but most of those were obtain in low leverage situations. As far as Borucki is concerned he has had physical issues almost every season. He has only appeared in 30 games twice in 7 seasons.

The Pirates should have 2 additions to their staff to start the season Bubba Chandler to move into the rotation and Johan Oviedo coming off Tommy John surgery possibly starting him in the bullpen before easing him in the rotation. That makes 12 pitchers with one more to obtain through trade or free agency. I would not rule out getting a starter by that method. I still think the best way to improve the bullpen is to consider putting Falter, Ortiz, and Oviedo there. Remember no matter how good your starting rotation is, in this day and age it only gets you through 2/3 of the game most of the time. You have to have a good bullpen if you are going to win. The rotation could look like this, Skenes, Jones, Keller, Chandler, New Player with eventually Oviedo starting in case of injury. Ortiz and Falter could move in to start if needed for the same reason.

There you have it, the pathetic 2024 Pittsburgh Pirates. For this team to move out of this mode they will need to add 3 to 4 additional position players, depending if they sign McCutchen, and to add one solid pitcher, whether it be a starter or reliever. To me this is a very tall order for this regime and all of this still does not eliminate Derek The Fox, who will personally lose at least 5 games on his own no matter who is on the field.

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Pirates Morning Report: Division Series Brief

Both lower seeds in the National League are on the verge of going to the League Championship Series. Last night the Padres and the Dodgers played one of the oddest games in playoff history. The Padres scored 6 runs in the 2nd thanks to some cagey running by Manny Machado, a routine ground ball where the Dodgers got no one out,and capped off by a Fernando Tatis 2 run homer. The Dodgers came right back with 4 runs in the top of the 3rd on a grand slam home run by Teoscar Hernandez, with one out to make the score 6-5 Padres. For the next 6 and 2/3 innings there were only 4 batters that got on base. Three for the Padres, one being immediately erased on a double play and another was intentionally walked. The Dodgers got a lone single in the 8th. Talk about pitching taking over a ballgame. The Mets beat the Phillies 6-2 to take a 2-1 lead in their series. The National League still has the potential to send the 6th seed to the World Series for the 3rd consecutive year. Oh my! MLB welcome to playoff baseball. On the American League side both series are tied at one game apiece. The Yankees had the audacity to call the Royals lucky when they lost to them 4-2 in game 2. This from a team that received 8 walks in game 1 and could only manage to win 6-5. We will all see how lucky the Royals are over the next two days. The Tigers evened their series with the Guardians by hitting a 3 run homer in the top of the 9th off Emmanuel Clase who in 74 games had an ERA of 0.61. Frankly I am not expecting this but it could be an all wild card final series in both leagues. Wow!

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Pirate Morning Report: Playoff Briefing Day 3

There was only one playoff game last night, but it was a doozy. Pete Alonzon hit a huge 3 run home run in the top of the 9th with one out to propel the Mets to a 3-2 lead. They added an insurance run and won the game 4-2 to move on to the division series to face the Philadelphia Phillies. Sometimes the cookbook method does not work. Freddy Peralta the top starter for the Brewers came in to pitch the top of the 8th and mowed the Mets down in order on just 13 pitches. I thought they would just stay with him to pitch the 9th. Instead, it was cookbook closer time and Devin Williams. He is an elite closer, but there were two things. He had not pitched that much this year due to injury and he had a less than stellar playoff history. Needless to say, he got ripped pretty good and was even left in the game after the home run, which allowed the Mets to get a big insurance run. It’s called cookbook strategy, rather than seeing what is happening in the moment. Looks like the Brewers manager may get manager of the year. He certainly wasn’t last night. During the inning the Mets got two gift runners via the walk and hit by pitch. Both runners scored. The visiting team won 3 out of the 4 wild card series for the second consecutive year. Will there be a format change. I think there should be.

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Pirate Morning Report: Playoff Briefing Day 2

Three of the four Wild Card series are over. The Royals beat the Orioles 2-1 with the Orioles matching the Rays last year by scoring one run in the two games. The Tigers upset the Astros winning the second game 5-2 as the Astros could only muster 3 runs in the 2 games. The Padres scored 5 runs in the second inning after 2 were out and the bases empty, barely making it stand up, eking out a 5-4 win to take the series with the Braves. We will get one elimination game this year as the Brewers beat the Mets 5-3 to even the series. MLB will be rooting for the Brewers because if the Mets win, which I expect they will, it will mean in 3 years that only two division champions have made it into the division series. So far, the visiting team has won 8 out of the 11 series. It looks obvious right now, that getting home field advantage is not enough of a reward after playing 162 games. If the Mets win you may see a change in the playoff format. My suggestion is to go back to the old wild card games of one and done. Have the 5th and 6th seeds play and the winner plays the 4th seed with the winner moving on to the division series. Either that or shorten the season but you know that is not going to happen. If you lead your division over 162 games, you should at least be into the quarter finals. No other professional league has a season that is even close to playing that many games. If the Brewers win today which is certainly a possibility, you will hear a big sigh of relief from MLB hoping again that next year the highest seeds will do better in the wild card round.

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Pirates Morning Report: Playoff Briefing

The four wild card playoff series opened yesterday, and the results have the powers to be in MLB shaking their heads. The visiting team won 3 or the 4 games and the games had that same feel as last year’s first round. The teams that lost just could not score runs. The Astros scored one run, and the Braves and Orioles were shut out. Even the Brewers who scored 4 runs did not get a runner on base the last 5 and 1/3 innings. Last year all 4 series were 2 game sweeps. In fact, in last year’s playoffs there was not an elimination game until the championship series. If all 4 series are sweeps today you can bet that MLB will be taking a hard look at this playoff format. It is only one game, but the Mets are sure looking like they may be the 3rd 6th seed in a row to make the World Series in the National League. Of course, that can all change if 3 of the 4 series go to 3 games. MLB will breathe a big sigh of relief if at least 3 of the 4 home teams can pull out the series win. One thing is for sure, yesterday’s losing teams better find some way to score runs. If they don’t if may be back to the drawing board for Major League Baseball.

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Pirates Morning Report: 2024 Season Wrap Up, Team

The Pirates finished 23rd in baseball overall with their 76-86 record. All phases of their game were mostly in the bottom of the statistics. I am going to hit the same basic stats that I went through at various times during the season plus look at some additional stats. According to baseball reference the Pirates were the 7th luckiest team in baseball. They were fortunate to win 76 games with the way they played. The cold hard statistics will bear that out. The overall problem with this team is that they were never a very aggressive bunch. Let’s get to the data.

The offense was pretty much nonexistent all year. They finished 24th in runs scored with 4.1 runs per game. There were only 3 teams in baseball that struck out more than the Pirates. The Pirates struck out a whopping 1,506 times. That is an average of a little over 9 times per game. They finished 17th in walks with 485 for an average of just under 3 per game. The tradeoff for strikeouts is supposed to be home runs. That is the new baseball philosophy to swing for the fences despite striking out a lot. This did not work out for the Pirates. They hit only 160 home runs to place 25th in baseball. Wouldn’t you think management might figure this out and try to stress making more contact. Apparently not. The Pirates were 27th in on base percentage at .301 when the league average is .312. The Diamondbacks led all of baseball with .337. Seven of the top eight on base percentage teams are in the playoffs and the Diamondbacks just missed. In the league comparison stat of OPS+ the Pirates rank 28th with 87 where the league average is 100. One area where the Pirates did well but did not do it often enough was in stealing bases. They stole 106 bases ranking them 16th with an 85% success rate. With that much success, where 75% is considered very good, the Pirates should have been trying to steal more bases. Another management failure. Another indication of the overall lack of aggression with this team. The team needs to find a new identity. I wonder if anyone in the Pirate organization knows this. This is not a power laden team despite what they say in the broadcast booth. This team needs to start making more contact and be more aggressive on the bases to increase the run total next year.

The pitching was better than the offense but not by much. They were 21st in runs allowed. In fielding independent pitching the Pirates had one of their highest rankings coming in at 13th. Overall, they had a league average pitching staff with an ERA+ 101. The starting pitching ranked 7th and the bullpen ranked 21st. The pitching staff gave up 515 walks which was the 11th most in baseball. The bullpen seemed worse losing many games in the late innings. The bullpen will need to be revamped but more on that when I go through the players. A little better year for the pitching staff and at least something to build on.

When the Pirates are evaluated position by position with the rest of the league, they do not come out all that well. The highest ranked position is left field and that is 15th. The rest of their positions are ranked from 18th down to having the worst right fielder in baseball. Their pinch hitters were ranked 27th. On the defensive side of the ball the Pirates were really bad. Their defensive efficiency rating was 24th in the league.

It is obvious by now that the Pirates will need a lot of help if they are going to improve in 2025. This organization is one of the worst in baseball. Since 2000 the Pirates have only had 4 seasons where they won 80 or more games. The next closest to that mark are Colorado and Cincinnati with 6 seasons. There is one team in the American League with 7 and the rest of the teams have a lot more seasons with 80 wins. Bob Nutting has been the owner since 2007. Will he ever loosen the purse strings. With a couple of good free agent signings and building a bullpen the Pirates could go right to the top. They have a good but not great young core. When I evaluate the players in the next blog, you will see that most of the players on the Pirates are overrated thanks to the hyperbole in the Pirate broadcast booth. If you just listened to them and knew nothing else, you would have thought the Pirates won the division by 10 games. I do not see that much hope for the coming year unless Shelton and the coaches are gone. I think it would be really interesting if they gave the players a vote. As long as it would be secret ballot, he would be gone. It is this team’s only hope.