Month: February 2025

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Pirate Morning Report: The Andrew Hearney Signing, What Does It Mean

This week the Pirates signed Andrew Heaney to a one year contract. This added to the strongest part of the team. What this boils down to is that it creates three possibilities. Let’s take a look at those possibilities, starting from what I consider the least desirable to the most desirable scenario. Knowing the Pirates like we do, they will probably do the first one.

If the Pirates follow traditional lines, they will use a 5-man rotation. In that case, Bubba Chandler will not be on the opening day roster, a decision that many fans and analysts may find perplexing. This will be yet another tactic by the Pirates. Their intention is to delay a player from becoming arbitration eligible. Such a practice can have long-term implications for both the player and the organization. Chandler is only 22 years old. He has shown immense potential. He deserves to be on the team at the start of the season. He pitched 26 games in the minors last year, posting impressive numbers that caught the attention of scouts and coaches alike. His merged AA and AAA stats were 10-7, which is commendable for a young pitcher facing various levels of competition. His ERA was 3.08 with a WHIP of 1.02, indicating that he was efficient and effective on the mound. In an impressive feat, he struck out 148 batters in just 119 innings. This showcases his ability to get hitters out. It demonstrates his capacity to dominate games. What makes his performance even more remarkable is his improvement. He was better in AAA than in AA. This is a clear sign of his ability to adapt and improve. If anybody needs to be in the rotation, it is Chandler, as his skills and performance significantly contribute to the team’s success.

The Pirates decide that they will go with a 6-man starting rotation, a strategic approach that is gaining traction in the league. With 3 young arms under the age of 25, it would be a great way to limit their innings for the year, ensuring that these promising talents are developed carefully without overexerting them. Each of the 6 pitchers has proven they can start and be effective. The only negative would be that this decision only leaves 7 in the bullpen, which poses certain challenges as the season progresses. With the way that The Shadow manages a bullpen, that could be a real problem, especially during high-stakes games when fatigue and injuries can easily arise. One thing that can help offset that would be to allow the starters to go deeper into games, counteracting the reliance on a short bullpen. The Pirates would consider letting the pitchers routinely throw around 110 pitches per game. The extra day of rest would help. This approach maximizes their contributions and provides more stability to the team’s overall pitching strategy. This would not only enhance the performance of the starters but also preserve the strength of the bullpen over the long haul, fostering a more resilient team throughout the grueling season.

The final scenario would be for the Pirates to trade somebody in the rotation. You would have to figure the young starters would be untouchable. Yet, depending on the return, I could see Chandler being dealt, as his performance might attract some interest from other teams. The three most likely trade candidates would be Mitch Keller, Barry Falter, and even though just acquired, Heaney. I mean, Heaney and Falter are practically clones in terms of their pitching style and capabilities, making them highly valuable assets if the right offers come along. It has been done in the past that a team signs a player and then trades him shortly after, often as part of a larger strategy to boost the team’s competitiveness. The Pirates still need bullpen help and shortstop depth or an upgrade, which could influence their decisions as they navigate potential trades. Ke’Bryan Hayes and IKF would be tradable as far as I am concerned, especially if the front office wants to shake things up and infuse fresh talent into the roster. I feel that the likelihood of a trade is small, yet you never know. The Pirates may finally try and really improve this team in a significant way. Certainly, starting pitching is the only real strength of this team, and any changes made will need to preserve that foundation. Everyone knows the baseball axiom that you can’t have enough starting pitching, and with what they have in the minors and their 40-man roster, the Pirates will put that statement to the test if they stand pat. Right now, this is an offense that does not have a lot of power or speed, and addressing this deficiency should be a priority in the coming weeks. Does anybody know the record for the longest stretch without scoring a run? I just looked it up. It is 48 innings, set by two teams. The Philadelphia A’s did it in 1906. The Chicago Cubs accomplished the same feat in 1968, the year of the pitcher. This Pirate team as it now stands, has a real chance of breaking that record. See Pirate fans, you thought you had nothing to look forward to.

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Pirates Morning Report: Tommy Pham

When the Pirates signed Tommy Pham, I reacted like most fans and media. I pretty much ridiculed the signing. This was another mediocre signing. The player is going to turn 37 in a couple of weeks. He looks to be on the downside of an average baseball career. When I thought of doing this blog, I could not wait to get to baseball reference. I wanted to crunch the numbers. I aimed to shoot holes in Ben Cherington’s statement that this would be a big upgrade for the Pirates. After reviewing the numbers of Pham’s 11 year career, I am about to change my mind. I also read about some of his off the field experiences. At least I am going to give this signing the benefit of the doubt. Even Cherington’s statement has some merit, only because the corner outfield position for the Pirates has been so terrible. As you will see Pham is pretty much an average major league player. In the case of the Pirates, this is a huge upgrade. I admit, I did not think the Pirates signed Pham to turn him into an everyday player. At the very least Pham is an interesting signing on many fronts. Let’s dig in on Tommy Pham.

The biggest negative about Tommy Pham is his age as he heads into his age 37 season. Andrew McCutchen is 38 years old. The Pirates are asking Pham to be their everyday left fielder, which is something they never required of McCutchen. He doesn’t have a history of playing many games in a season. In his 11-year career, he has only played over 140 games 3 times. One of these occasions was as recent as 2022. Yet, he did not have a great year, as he finished with a slash line of .236/.312/.374 for an 89 OPS+. Still a lot better than any corner outfielder the Pirates had last year. You have to question his durability at this stage of his career. Last year he had a 91 OPS+ over 116 games with 3 different teams. What makes Pham interesting is that despite his overall numbers, he has had some good stretches. He has also seen a lot of action in the postseason and performed well on the big stage. Last year with the Chicago White Sox he had a 104 OPS+ over 70 games. The Sox then traded him to the Cardinals where he had some history. He did not do well with them. They released him. He was then picked up by the Kansas City Royals. He continued to struggle but in the post season he batted .455 in the division series against the Yankees. In his career, he has played in 37 postseason games with a slash line of .315/.351./.492. The Pirates will be his 9th team that he will have played for. He was a late bloomer not having a full MLB season until he was 29 years old. He had a great year that year with the Cardinals. The next year he got into a contract dispute with them. The issue never really resolved, and it caused the Cardinals to trade him to the Tampa Bay Rays. He gave Tampa Bay a solid year and a half. As Tampa often does, they traded him to the Padres. While with the Padres he was stabbed on October 11, 2020, while leaving a strip club. The wound was serious enough to need surgery. When the Padres tried to downplay the incident, Pham decided to take legal action. He sued the club for various damages resulting from the stabbing. Despite all of this, he had a pretty decent year for the Padres in 2021. He played in 155 games and wound up with a 103 OPS+. He had another strange incident at the start of 2022. Before a game with the Giants, he slapped Joc Peterson over a fantasy league dispute. He was suspended for 3 games. Since then, he has had his ups and downs. He struggled during 22 and 24. Still, in 23, he had an OPS+ of 111. He greatly helped the Diamondbacks in the playoffs, helping them reach the World Series. He is an average fielder in left field. Still, for whatever reason, he is horrible in right field. This is the obvious reason the Pirates are moving him to left.

Certainly, Tommy Pham is not anywhere close to being considered a splash free agent signing. Still, he is not as bad of a signing, in my view, as it first appeared to be. The big question will be: can he stand up to being an everyday left fielder at the age of 37? If he can, there is no question that he can execute at the average big league level. The Pirates only have four other position players with similar performance. One of these players, Ke’Bryan Hayes, is more fragile than Pham. Certainly, until they acquired Pham, they did not have anybody even close to approaching that as a third outfielder. So, Cherrington is right when he says that Pham is a big upgrade. What he neglected to mention is that Pham is only a big upgrade because the Pirates are so pathetic. Pham has a certain amount of feistiness that is lacking on the Pirates. For whatever reason, Pham seems to help get teams into the playoffs. If he can just help the Pirates play meaningful games in September, he will be worth the signing. I think there is a better chance of that happening now, after taking a closer look at Tommy Pham.

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Golf: Chipping, Going Against The Grain.

I usually have more experience with a method before I write about it, but we are having a more normal winter here in Western Pennsylvania and playing golf is definitely on the backburner. At the end of February last year, I had played 10 rounds of golf. In 2023 I played 8 rounds. So far this year I have played 9 holes, and it does not look like I will be playing the rest of this month. I started using this method toward the end of last year, so I think I have been doing this for about 5 rounds. I have battled the chip yips for about 5 years with having good spells and bad spells but mostly bad spells. This change in chipping is not so much a change in technique but a change in chipping philosophy which goes against the grain of most chipping instruction. The basic philosophy of chipping has always been minimum air time and maximum ground time. All the great short game players have advocated this method.

One of the debates in chipping has been whether to use different clubs depending on the shot you are trying to hit or use just one club like a lob or sand wedge, manipulating the head open or closed and changing ball position, depending on the type of shot you are trying to hit. I use strictly my sand wedge now for all chip shots. However, I do not manipulate the club, because I hit every shot the same, no matter what the situation. The one exception is if I have to hit a really high shot, I will open the face to increase the loft of the club. I would have to do this eventually if I used a lob wedge instead. With the 56-degree sand wedge I hit every chip shot basically the same which is high. If I have a chip shot that is just off the green 3 or 4 yards and I have a lot of green to work with I do not hit the low chip that just lands on the green and runs up to hole. Using the sand wedge’s normal loft, I will hit a high shot short of the pin and let it roll from this point. I see many advantages of using the high method even when it is not necessary. You are hitting one type of shot for every chip. The technique is the same for every shot. The difference is how hard are you going to hit the ball to fly to a spot short of the hole. The other advantage on longer chips, where the ball is off the green by 5 to 10 yards and you have more than 50 feet of green to work with is you do not have to be reading the green for all that roll. I can’t tell you how many times that I have hit a long chip, and the ball has gone in a different direction than I thought it would because I read the green wrong. By hitting a high chip, you only have to know what the ball is going to do about 15 to 20 feet short of the hole depending on the conditions of the green. This has simplified my process greatly. In the world of riding cart golf, I always take the same club out of my bag for every shot around the green. By sticking to the same technique, at least so far, I have not had near the problems with the yips, and if I do yip, the shot still turns out better than my old yip chips. This method particular helps in longer grass around the green where a less lofted club may have a tendency to get caught up in the rough.

I have not used this method for that many rounds and eventually it may go by the wayside by the 9th or 10th round this year. Even though this is a small sample size I feel it has helped me shoot better scores. If your short game is solid then naturally I would continue what you are doing. If you are having problems even if it is not the chip yips but just not getting it up a down that often when just off the green, then I would give the high shot method a try. As we finally get into the golf season I will keep you posted on how I am doing around the greens.

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Pirates Morning Report: Dodgers, Yankees, and Mets, They May Have More Problems Than You Think

Everyone has just about conceded another championship to the Los Angeles Dodgers with all the free agent and spending moves they have made. This despite the fact that the Mets continue to spend wild amounts of money and got the no.1 free agent Juan Soto. The Yankees have just about been named the other sure-fire participant in this upcoming World Series with all the moves they have made, particularly when it comes to pitching. Even though these teams especially the Dodgers, have made the most noise and spent the most money this off season, they all have some potential problems that could derail their trip to the playoffs and the World Series. Let’s look at the team that everyone thinks is going to have no problem repeating as World Series champions, even though no one has done that in baseball this century. More on that later.

Even though the Dodgers have spent a ton of money this off season, they do have 2 things that could be cause for concern. The Dodger position players are starting to get baseball old. Max Muncy 34, Teoscar Hernadez 32, Miguel Rojas 36, Will Smith 30, Freddie Freeman 35, Mookie Betts 32, Shohei Ohtani 30, turning 31 in midseason, Jason Heyward 35, Tommy Edman 30, and Chris Taylor 34. It would be ridiculous to think that all of these players are going to have age related down years. It would not be surprising to see 2 or 3 of them not repeat their 2024 season. My prime candidates would be Rojas who had a 3.5 WAR season with a 113 OPS+, Freddie Freeman with a 143 OPS+ and Teoscar Hernandez with a 4.3 WAR and 137 OPS+. It could happen to any of the 30 something Dodger position players. The thing about age decline it comes quickly and without warning. The 30 something group can become more injury prone also. The second issue is, that even though the Dodger starting rotation is deep, they may to have to be deep, in order to survive. This has to be most the injury prone starting rotation in baseball, and they haven’t even signed Kershaw yet. Tyler Glasnow in 9yrs. has only throw over 120 innings once and that was last year but was not available for the post season. Tony Gonsolin has only thrown more than 120 innings once in 5 years. Blake Snell has only thrown over 130 innings twice in 9 seasons. Yoshinobu Yamamoto threw only 90 innings last year. Roki Sasaki has never thrown over 130 innings in his Japanese career. Then you have Ohtani wanting to pitch again. You have to wonder how that might affect his overall play. Even the Dodger bullpen is gray in the beard with 2 members over 35. As far as I am concerned the Dodgers are far from a lead pipe cinch with the issues they have. The team that is supposed to give them their biggest competition the New York Mets have problems of their own.

The Mets starting rotation seems to be mediocre at best. As soon as they acquired Clay Holmes, they put him in the rotation. He has only started 4 games in his 7 year career. He has had his ups and downs but overall was a very solid reliever for the Yankees. He had 74 saves and a 146 ERA+ for the last 3 years. With the importance of bullpens, you have to wonder what the Mets are thinking? With the exception of Sean Manaea, the rest of the rotation looks like either they have not pitched much in 2024 or when they have pitched, have not been very good. It certainly seems they need to make a trade. Edwin Diaz is coming off a so so year and the rest of the bullpen is below average. The did pick up lefty A. J. Minter who has been solid for the Braves over the years, but he only pitched 34 innings last year. Of course, the Mets picked up the free agent prize in Juan Soto. Soto was built for Yankee Stadium. I am not so sure about Citi Field. He is going to a park that is 7% less friendly to hitters. His fielding is ok, but he is a horrible baserunner. With the Yankees he had a 178 OPS+. I am not too sure he will approach this with the Mets. He may have to if the Mets are going to make the playoffs. The Mets did resign Pete Alonso, and they have one of the best players in the game in Francisco Lindor. The rest of their starters have an average WAR of about 2 which is just barely a Major League starter. This team made the playoffs on the last day of the season. I do not think they will be that lucky this year.

Then we have the Yankees, the team that could not keep the man that was built for Yankee Stadium. This may go down as their biggest failing as a franchise. They essentially replaced him with Cody Bellinger. Bellinger’s is considered an excellent fielder but the numbers do not support that. The last 3 years he has just been average. Like the rest of his game, it has declined also. He still is a good baserunner, but he will turn 30 this mid-season and for whatever reason he seems like an old 30. It will be interesting how he holds up playing in New York City. They haven’t done much else to fill the huge void left by Soto but maybe they feel they do not have to because they may have the best rotation in baseball, to go along with a very strong bullpen thanks to acquiring Max Fried and Devin Williams. Their pitching staff may be able to carry them to the playoffs but but even that is doubtful. The health of any pitching staff is always tenuous especially when they are showing a bit of age like the Yankee staff with most of their pitchers over 30. Even though he has come to the post often 3 out of the last 4 years Aaron Judge’s health can always be a little tenuous also. He is going into his age 33 season which could mean less than 120 games which would be disastrous for the Yankees. The Yankees have two X factors that are going against them, also. First they play in the toughest division in baseball and none of their competition have been standing pat. The Blue Jays, Rays, Red Sox and Orioles are all getting stronger. No one is getting ready to concede the division title to the Yankees. Second they have the Derek Shelton of the American League in Aaron Boone. He is one of the worst managers in baseball. You have to wonder what the Yankees do in spring training as their fundamentals are the worst in baseball. Boone’s in game decisions with the exception of Derek The Shadow Shelton are some of the worst I have ever seen. In case you have not figured it out I do not believe the Mets or the Yankees will be in the post season this year. The big spenders are going to have a short season.

This brings us back to the salary cap. Baseball is the only professional sport that does not have one. It has been quoted in the media that the Dodgers are ruining baseball by spending so much money. Despite all this crap about how a salary cap is needed baseball has shown that it is the most competitive of the four sports. There has not been a repeat champion in baseball since 2000. The other 3 sports cannot say that. Basketball has had two threepeats and in one stretch the Golden State Warriors and Cleveland Cavaliers played in four straight NBA finals. Baseball has had the greatest number of teams to win a championship with 16 different teams winning a World Series since 2000. Hockey is next with 14, Football with 13, and Basketball 12. This is not a huge difference, but if the salary cap was so good for a sport and allowed more teams to have a chance at winning, then baseball should be at the bottom of the list not at the top of a 24 year sample. Last year the two big spenders made it to the World Series for the first time. The way things look for those big spenders right now, I don’t see it happening again for a long time.

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Pirates Morning Report: Looking At The Young Inexperienced Pirates

With the addition of Adam Frazier, the Pirates have 7 players on their 40 man roster that have over 1000 Major League plate appearances. In the last blog I discussed what I called 4 intriguing players that might help the Pirates. That leaves 11 players that have little or no experience in the Major Leagues. I will list them in the order I think that they will have the best chance of making a positive impact on the season. To show what dour straits the Pirates are in, Jack Suwinski comes in 5th on this list. At the end I will mention a couple of other players, one who better not be given the opportunity to have an impact on the season and another who needs to find himself this year.

  1. Joey Bart, 28 years old. Bart was the most pleasant surprise of the season. In 2024 he slashed .265/.337/.446 which was a big improvement over his previous numbers. His defensive metrics were just slightly below average but he established himself behind the plate as the Pirates starting catcher for 2025. It would be great to see him continue to improve but if he can just maintain those numbers it would be a huge boon for the Pirates at the catching position.
  2. Nick Gonzales, 26 years old in May. Gonzales may not have been great, but he had a decent year at the plate, raising his OPS+ from 66 to 96 in 2024 with 100 being league average. Gonzales is a below average fielder at the moment but that can always improve. Right now, he is essentially the Pirates starting 2nd baseman and they could do a lot worse. His other positive is that he may bring something of value in a trade. There are not many Pirates on this team that can say that.
  3. Spencer Horwitz, 27 years old. The new first baseman. In 425 plate appearances he slashed .264/355/428 for an OPS+ 123 which is better than any Pirate did last year. He is an average glove at first base which is ok. He will have an opportunity to play an entire season this year and if he can just maintain those numbers, he will be another huge upgrade at the position.
  4. Jarod Triolo, 27 years old. Triolo after showing promise in 2023 had a very disappointing 2024. His OPS+ plummeted from 114 in 23 to 71 in 24. He did not have a bad last 30 games but overall his offense was horrendous. He is by far the best glove man of the group with a +8 in DRS over all positions. It would be nice to see him settle in at 3rd base if the Pirates trade Hayes and IKF.
  5. Jack Suwinski, 27 years old in July. Yes, there he is with still a chance to start in right field. As bad as he looked last year, his career stat line is not bad for a Pirate. In 1183 plate appearances his slash line is .207/309/409 for a 97 OPS+. His first two years were better, with last year being a disaster. I think the Pirates messed him up by trying to turn him into Kyle Schwarber by having him lead off for an extended period in 2023. He seemed to never recover from that. On top of all that he is a horrible fielder with a defensive runs saved of -15. I bet you can’ wait for the final 6.
  6. Emanuel Valdez, 26 years old. In 372 plate appearances his slash line is .235/.286/400 for an OPS+ 86. Another below average fielder with a DRS of -5. Why they acquired him I have no idea other than to continue the pattern of having below average hitters and fielders.
  7. Liovar Peguero, 24 years old. He has 227 plate appearances with a slash line of .237/.280/.370 for a 75 OPS+. He has been an average fielder. Expected to contend for a roster spot in 2024 he took a step backward in AAA, where he put up mediocre numbers. He will need to find something this year to stay in the organization.
  8. Jason Delay, 30 years old in March. Delay is a bit of a mystery man. The Pirates have not given him much opportunity and he has not really lit it up, but at times as shown some promise. I would assume somebody needs a backup catcher that they would be able to give a mid level prospect for. Delay is average behind the plate and in 373 plate appearances has a 70 OPS+
  9. Alika Williams, 26 years old in March. Williams has the rep of being a very good glove, but the metrics don’t support that with his DRS being 0 which is average. If he was an average hitter that would be great, but he is not close with a horrible OPS+ of 46. If he is on the opening day roster again, say goodbye to the season.
  10. Henry Davis, 26 years old. Maybe the new hitting coach will perform a miracle with Davis. His AAA numbers have been good to excellent. His Major League numbers have been awful. They are too embarrassing to print. I will be rooting for the guy but I think it is pretty much hopeless
  11. Tsung Che Cheng, 23 years old. He has not played in the majors yet and hasn’t done a whole lot at the minor league level, but for whatever reason the Pirates have him on the 40 man roster. I assume he will spend the season at AAA.

That leaves us two players that are at opposite ends of the spectrum. Josh Palacios who will turn 29 years old in July. He did not see a lot of action last year but did not disappoint. He continued to hit at below league average. If he sees any action this year the Pirates are in big trouble. Finally, we have former no.1 pick Termarr Johnson who will be 21 years old in June. This fall, when you looked at the Pirate prospects, it was projected that he would be brought up most likely in 2025. Now it looks like 2026. He had a good spring training last year but got off to a slow start in the minors, recovered somewhat, but did not really make any strong impressions. With a small sample size, he had a pretty good fall league experience. In 54 plate appearances he slashed .250/.444/.475. Hopefully he won’t become Henry Davis Jr. He will have to take a big step forward if he is going to make the Pirates this year. When you think about trades at the present moment, the two names that are at the top of the list are Ke’Bryan Hayes, who supposedly requested to be traded and Isiah Kiner-Falefa. Possibly Nick Gonzales and/or Jason Delay could be thrown into the mix. When the season ended and for most of the winter, there was talk of the Pirates trading for a right fielder. However, when you look at this 40 man roster, the position players are so weak that the Pirates are in desperate need of high level prospects that are very close to being ready to play at the major league level. This has never been made clearer by the fact if you just go on past performance, then the opening day right fielder should be Jack Suwinski. That is how sad of a state the Pirates are in at the present moment, unless you think that Adam Frazier is going to come to the rescue.