Everyone has just about conceded another championship to the Los Angeles Dodgers with all the free agent and spending moves they have made. This despite the fact that the Mets continue to spend wild amounts of money and got the no.1 free agent Juan Soto. The Yankees have just about been named the other sure-fire participant in this upcoming World Series with all the moves they have made, particularly when it comes to pitching. Even though these teams especially the Dodgers, have made the most noise and spent the most money this off season, they all have some potential problems that could derail their trip to the playoffs and the World Series. Let’s look at the team that everyone thinks is going to have no problem repeating as World Series champions, even though no one has done that in baseball this century. More on that later.
Even though the Dodgers have spent a ton of money this off season, they do have 2 things that could be cause for concern. The Dodger position players are starting to get baseball old. Max Muncy 34, Teoscar Hernadez 32, Miguel Rojas 36, Will Smith 30, Freddie Freeman 35, Mookie Betts 32, Shohei Ohtani 30, turning 31 in midseason, Jason Heyward 35, Tommy Edman 30, and Chris Taylor 34. It would be ridiculous to think that all of these players are going to have age related down years. It would not be surprising to see 2 or 3 of them not repeat their 2024 season. My prime candidates would be Rojas who had a 3.5 WAR season with a 113 OPS+, Freddie Freeman with a 143 OPS+ and Teoscar Hernandez with a 4.3 WAR and 137 OPS+. It could happen to any of the 30 something Dodger position players. The thing about age decline it comes quickly and without warning. The 30 something group can become more injury prone also. The second issue is, that even though the Dodger starting rotation is deep, they may to have to be deep, in order to survive. This has to be most the injury prone starting rotation in baseball, and they haven’t even signed Kershaw yet. Tyler Glasnow in 9yrs. has only throw over 120 innings once and that was last year but was not available for the post season. Tony Gonsolin has only thrown more than 120 innings once in 5 years. Blake Snell has only thrown over 130 innings twice in 9 seasons. Yoshinobu Yamamoto threw only 90 innings last year. Roki Sasaki has never thrown over 130 innings in his Japanese career. Then you have Ohtani wanting to pitch again. You have to wonder how that might affect his overall play. Even the Dodger bullpen is gray in the beard with 2 members over 35. As far as I am concerned the Dodgers are far from a lead pipe cinch with the issues they have. The team that is supposed to give them their biggest competition the New York Mets have problems of their own.
The Mets starting rotation seems to be mediocre at best. As soon as they acquired Clay Holmes, they put him in the rotation. He has only started 4 games in his 7 year career. He has had his ups and downs but overall was a very solid reliever for the Yankees. He had 74 saves and a 146 ERA+ for the last 3 years. With the importance of bullpens, you have to wonder what the Mets are thinking? With the exception of Sean Manaea, the rest of the rotation looks like either they have not pitched much in 2024 or when they have pitched, have not been very good. It certainly seems they need to make a trade. Edwin Diaz is coming off a so so year and the rest of the bullpen is below average. The did pick up lefty A. J. Minter who has been solid for the Braves over the years, but he only pitched 34 innings last year. Of course, the Mets picked up the free agent prize in Juan Soto. Soto was built for Yankee Stadium. I am not so sure about Citi Field. He is going to a park that is 7% less friendly to hitters. His fielding is ok, but he is a horrible baserunner. With the Yankees he had a 178 OPS+. I am not too sure he will approach this with the Mets. He may have to if the Mets are going to make the playoffs. The Mets did resign Pete Alonso, and they have one of the best players in the game in Francisco Lindor. The rest of their starters have an average WAR of about 2 which is just barely a Major League starter. This team made the playoffs on the last day of the season. I do not think they will be that lucky this year.
Then we have the Yankees, the team that could not keep the man that was built for Yankee Stadium. This may go down as their biggest failing as a franchise. They essentially replaced him with Cody Bellinger. Bellinger’s is considered an excellent fielder but the numbers do not support that. The last 3 years he has just been average. Like the rest of his game, it has declined also. He still is a good baserunner, but he will turn 30 this mid-season and for whatever reason he seems like an old 30. It will be interesting how he holds up playing in New York City. They haven’t done much else to fill the huge void left by Soto but maybe they feel they do not have to because they may have the best rotation in baseball, to go along with a very strong bullpen thanks to acquiring Max Fried and Devin Williams. Their pitching staff may be able to carry them to the playoffs but but even that is doubtful. The health of any pitching staff is always tenuous especially when they are showing a bit of age like the Yankee staff with most of their pitchers over 30. Even though he has come to the post often 3 out of the last 4 years Aaron Judge’s health can always be a little tenuous also. He is going into his age 33 season which could mean less than 120 games which would be disastrous for the Yankees. The Yankees have two X factors that are going against them, also. First they play in the toughest division in baseball and none of their competition have been standing pat. The Blue Jays, Rays, Red Sox and Orioles are all getting stronger. No one is getting ready to concede the division title to the Yankees. Second they have the Derek Shelton of the American League in Aaron Boone. He is one of the worst managers in baseball. You have to wonder what the Yankees do in spring training as their fundamentals are the worst in baseball. Boone’s in game decisions with the exception of Derek The Shadow Shelton are some of the worst I have ever seen. In case you have not figured it out I do not believe the Mets or the Yankees will be in the post season this year. The big spenders are going to have a short season.
This brings us back to the salary cap. Baseball is the only professional sport that does not have one. It has been quoted in the media that the Dodgers are ruining baseball by spending so much money. Despite all this crap about how a salary cap is needed baseball has shown that it is the most competitive of the four sports. There has not been a repeat champion in baseball since 2000. The other 3 sports cannot say that. Basketball has had two threepeats and in one stretch the Golden State Warriors and Cleveland Cavaliers played in four straight NBA finals. Baseball has had the greatest number of teams to win a championship with 16 different teams winning a World Series since 2000. Hockey is next with 14, Football with 13, and Basketball 12. This is not a huge difference, but if the salary cap was so good for a sport and allowed more teams to have a chance at winning, then baseball should be at the bottom of the list not at the top of a 24 year sample. Last year the two big spenders made it to the World Series for the first time. The way things look for those big spenders right now, I don’t see it happening again for a long time.
The Goofy Game of Golf/Life Searching for the Answer 