There is no question the Pirates have played better under Don Kelly. They have stayed pretty much right around .500. They are 17-18 since Kelly took over. Despite what you hear in the Pirates broadcast booth, the improved record is due to the Pirates’ pitching staff. They have performed even better under Kelly. The offense is not getting better, despite what you hear in the broadcast booth. The pitching staff is 9th in ERA+. That is up 6 spots since Kelly took over. The rotation is ranked 5th in baseball. The bullpen has seen the most improvement. They have gone from being the 20th-ranked bullpen all the way up to 9th. In part, this is due to the way Kelly manages the bullpen. The other surprise here is the Pirates are presently ranked the 4th best fielding team in baseball. This has to be their highest ranking since they started expanding the defensive metrics. It is obvious that the position players, and more particularly the offense, are holding the Pirates back. Let’s look at the main culprits.
Ke’Bryan Hayes is having his worst season as a pro. Thanks to his glove, he has always been around a 3.0 WAR player. In other words, a solid starter. Injury has been his big problem. This year, he has played in 67 of the Pirates’ 73 games. His offensive performance has been awful. His OPS+ is 60. Among players with at least 60 games for the Pirates this year, he is the worst hitter. At least Hayes has a positive WAR. Bryan Reynolds is even having a worse year. His WAR is negative 0.7. His OPS+ is next worst at 83. Top that off with the fact that he is a negative fielder in right field. Then there are the obvious problems: Tommy Pham, Jared Triolo, and Alexander Canario. They all hit worse than Hayes. Spencer Horwitz has only played 25 games, but he is certainly not lighting it up. To show you how bad this team is, Henry Davis is the 4th best position player on the team. I will pause here to allow everybody to go and throw up.
The trade deadline is about a month away. The Pirates need to cut ties with both Reynolds and Hayes. I don’t think they will get much for them, especially Hayes. There may be teams at the trade deadline that are desperate for a defensive 3rd baseman. Both have appealing contracts, and teams have big enough egos that they think they can “fix” players. The other players I think the Pirates should move, in the order that I think will result in the best return, are Mitch Keller, David Bednar, Andrew Heaney, and Isiah Kiner-Falefa. Heaney and IKF would be just rentals, becoming free agents at the end of the season. I think they should not wait until the trade deadline to unload Bednar. He is pitching well now but could go south again at any moment. If the return would be right, I could see them trading Joey Bart or Henry Davis. If the price is right, I could see them trading anyone except Cruz and Skenes. What the Pirates need is offense, and more specifically, power. They have lots of trade bait out there because teams are desperate for pitching. The question is, do the Pirates know this? I doubt it.
The Goofy Game of Golf/Life Searching for the Answer 