Tomorrow the Pirates start the 2026 season against the New York Mets. This has been their busiest offseason this century. Optimism is high that the Pirates can make the playoffs. I have written about this before, but the Pirates have to do three things in order to make the playoffs. They have to pitch like they did last year. They need to be an average offensive team. This would be a gigantic improvement over last year’s league-worst offense. They were a better-than-average defensive team last year. There will be some drop-off in that performance this year, but as long as they remain around an average defensive team, they should be fine. How do the Pirates go about achieving those goals, thus contending for a playoff spot?
Let’s do the easy one first, the pitching. The Pirates should pitch at least as well as they did last year and maybe even better. Everyone seems to love the new pitching coach, and the Pirates have lots of young arms ready to take the mound. As well as the Pirates pitched last year, there is room for improvement. They were 7th in ERA. They were 5th in runs allowed. They were 3rd in Fielding Independent Pitching, FIP. All good numbers to be sure, but it is not inconceivable to think they could be the top pitching staff in all of baseball. As long as the injury bug does not get them, they should be a very reliable group. The challenge for the Pirates will be how to go about limiting the innings of Bubba Chandler and Braxton Ashcraft. According to reports, they want to keep them right around 150 innings for the season. This is where Hunter Barco, Jose Urquidy, and the return of Jared Jones should help. The bullpen looks stronger than it was last year at this time. The other good news is that there are lots of arms in AAA that can come up if needed. The Pirates should be able to survive if there are some minor injuries along the way. The one man that needs to stay healthy is Paul Skenes. If everything goes well, it looks like he will be throwing a 200-inning season. If everyone stays relatively healthy, this will easily remain the strongest part of this team.
The offense is another story. Can they become average? It may not be as easy as you think, despite the acquisitions over the off season. The Pirates added Brandon Lowe, Ryan O’ Hearn and Marcel Ozuna as big bats. Add that to Spencer Horwitz, Oneil Cruz, and Bryan Reynolds and you have a formidable front 6 to the batting order. The last 3 not so much. Jared Triolo and Henry Davis/ Joey Bart are pretty pathetic. Nick Gonzales could be a sleeper here. He seemed to be making progress through the 2024 season. Somehow to start the 2025 season the Pirates allowed him to play about 6 spring and regular season games on a broken foot and ankle. Great medical staff there. In my view I do not know if he truly ever recovered from the injury. If he can become an average major league hitter or better then it will be a bonus for this team. The other thing that has to happen is Oneil Cruz needs to have a bounce back year at the plate. He seems to have had a good spring and looked pretty good in the World Baseball Classic in a limited capacity. The media like to say that Brian Reynolds needs to have a bounce back season. I think he just needs to hit like he did after the All Star break last year. For 63 games he slashed .276/.364/.453 for an OPS of .816, which is pretty darn good. If he can continue to do that and Cruz is able to become an all around good hitter, then this will be a much improved lineup even with Triolo and the catchers. The other good news is there are plenty of bats to replace these guys. The bench I feel is solid and there are guys in AAA that are just itching to get to the show. That’s not to say there are not potential problems. Lowe may not be able to stay on the field. Ozuna is 35 years old. O’Hearn is not a very good outfielder. I feel that most of these potential issues can be dealt with if the Pirates move to deal with them. That is main reason that I think there is real reason for hope. This is by far the most depth the Pirates have ever had at the Major League Level. There was a time not long ago, like last year, that you could say the only reason that this guy is in the big leagues is because he is playing for the Pirates. That statement is no longer true, not even close.
I really did not delve deeply into the defense because that can be such a subjective part of the game. I have always used Baseball Reference’s defensive metrics not because I think they are the best but just to be consistent. There is no question that the defense is going to suffer just a bit, but the key will be how much. I still feel it will not be significant. So, how do I think this team is going to do? I think if they stay healthy and Konner Griffin eventually makes a big contribution to this team; I can see them winning over 90 games. Even if things do go a little haywire, I feel they can right the ship and at least play over .500 ball and have a chance at the playoffs. I was very pessimistic going into last season, and I was right. This year I may be overly optimistic, but here is the final reason I feel the Pirates have a real chance. The manager’s name is not Shelton. I do not know how good a manager Don Kelly will finally be, but you can tell this team feels really good that he is the manager. Speaking of shocks, I still cannot believe that The Shadow got another managerial job with the Twins. I send all my condolences to the Twins faithful. The adventure begins tomorrow. I am gearing up for a wild ride.
The Goofy Game of Golf/Life Searching for the Answer 