Month: October 2026

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Pirates Morning Report: Third Base

The Pirates had the 23rd ranked third baseman in baseball this year, a position that contributed significantly to the team’s overall performance. Nick Gonzales had the most plate appearances at that position, which highlights the team’s reliance on him despite some glaring issues. Gonzales had his best year at the plate with a commendable slash line of .303/.367/.388, showcasing his ability to make consistent contact and get on base. However, his lack of power severely limited his potential, leading to an OPS+ of 107, which means he is just 7% above a league average hitter. This highlights the need for an improved power hitter at that position. Where Gonzales falters is in the field, a crucial aspect of his position. He was the worst fielding third baseman in the league, marked by a disappointing defensive runs saved of -15, which contributed to the team’s defensive struggles. He made 11 of his 15 errors at third base, a statistic that raises concerns about his defensive consistency and reliability. This is another corner infield position that has very poor fielding skills that the bat does not quite make up for. The Pirates do have Ryan O’Hearn, who can play first base, providing some flexibility, but they have no one that would be an adequate replacement at third base for the moment. If they are not going to sign Brandon Lowe during the off-season, that should be the Pirates’ number one priority, as solidifying the third base position is essential for improving both the batting lineup and the overall defensive integrity of the team moving forward.

As far as Gonzales is concerned, a move to second base would not only be good for him but also significantly benefit the team. He is only just a little below league average there at a -2 defensive runs saved, which indicates that while there is room for improvement, he shows potential to excel in this position. As a versatile player, Gonzales would be a great candidate to DH once in a while, allowing him to contribute offensively while minimizing the strain of fielding. Over the last three years, Nick Gonzales has made slow but steady progress as a hitter, showcasing flashes of brilliance that suggest he could develop into a reliable presence in the lineup. Injuries may be another factor that has slowed him down somewhat, causing intermittent setbacks in his development, but he has remained resilient and focused on improvement. Regardless of the challenges he has faced, he should definitely be on the team next year. Hopefully, he will never touch third base again, allowing him to fully embrace his role at second base where he can thrive.

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Pirates Morning Report: Second Base

The Pirates had the 2nd best second baseman in baseball, only behind Brice Turang of the Milwaukee Brewers. Of course, Brandon Lowe was responsible for that ranking. Brandon Lowe had a spectacular offensive season by Pirate standards, with a slash line of .260/.331/.493 for an OPS+ of 121. Defense was supposedly his Achilles’ heel, but it wasn’t this year. He was an outstanding +13 in defensive runs saved, by far the best defensive player the Pirates had this season. The only other complaint about Lowe was that he had trouble staying on the field. From 2022 to 2024, he never played in more than 109 games in a season, and in 2022, he appeared in only 65 games. However, he seems to have solved that problem, as in 2025, he played in 134 games, and this year with the Pirates, he played in 150 games. Coming off the year Lowe had, should the Pirates make a real effort to sign him to a long-term deal? Let’s take a dive in.

The first question to answer is whether the Pirates should make Lowe a qualifying offer. I believe it would be around 23 million dollars. The answer is an emphatic yes. First, there is about a zero chance that he would accept it. This would allow the Pirates to receive compensation when he signs with somebody else. Lowe will be heading into his age 33 season, turning 33 right in the middle of the 2027 season. He is approaching his declining years. Despite the fact that he has essentially stayed healthy the last 2 years, it is far from a guarantee that he will remain on the field for the next 3 or 4 years. The real question is what he will bring on the open market. There is a lot of negative history concerning teams signing free agents in their 30s. One of the big negatives for the Pirates is that Tremar Johnson, the so called second baseman of the future, did not have a very good year in AAA, and then seriously injured his knee. I am sure Lowe is looking for a 4-year deal. If he were to settle for a 3-year deal, I think 90 million or 30 million a year would be something the Pirates could manage. There always seems to be somebody willing to overpay these players. So, let’s assume that the Pirates are unable to keep Lowe, which I think is a pretty good assumption. I think this would put Nick Gonzales back at second base. He is close to league average when he plays second. At third base, he is horrible. To me, signing Brandon Lowe is a difficult call despite a lot of people clamoring for him to be signed. I think he will probably get a 4 or even 5-year deal, which the Pirates cannot afford. There are other younger players that the Pirates will need to sign. Who knows what the new labor agreement will eventually bring, but it won’t be so different that the Pirates would have a better chance to sign Lowe.

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Pirates Morning Report: The First Basemen

I am now glad that I am doing the position evaluations at the end of the season. Even with only 7 days to go in the season the catching position went from 19th to 15th in the league. That didn’t change my mind on what to do with the position but the catching position is now in the top half of the league. Unfortunately you cannot say the same thing about first base. I don’t know what it is about 1st base and the Pirates. They just cannot seem to find a really good one. The Pirates first basemen this year were ranked 27th in the league.

First base was held down for most of the season by Spencer Horwitz. He had to go on the IL at the end of June, came back the beginning of August and quite frankly never seemed to be right. In those last 39 games he appeared in, he only had 2 hits in 5 games. His slash line for the period was .180/.263/.201. He did not hit a home run. It’s hard to say if the injury was still bugging him or what. The bottom line is the Pirates were getting zero production from one of the offensive positions. Horwitz wound up the season with a minus 2 defensive runs saved. In other words this is not what you want at first base a way below average hitter (94 OPS+) and a below average fielder.

The Pirates need to find a new home for Horwitz even if it was a nagging injury that contributed to his bad 2nd half. Ryan O Hearn should be the main first basemen in 2027. Horwitz won’t bring much on the trade market but maybe the Pirates will luck out and a get a bullpen piece for him. If he is on the team next year this is not a good sign.

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Pirates Morning Report: Two Stats That Sum Up The Season

It is rare that you can look at a season and boil it down to two crucial stats where, if the team had just performed at the league average, they would undoubtedly be in the playoffs. The first stat has some speculation tied to it. This inefficiency in converting chances into runs not only highlights the team’s inconsistency at the plate but also serves as a reminder of missed opportunities that could have changed the course of their games. Conversely, the second stat presents a more straightforward narrative, as it illustrates a pitching failure that stands out starkly against league averages. The lack of effectiveness from key pitchers not only put additional pressure on the bullpen but also allowed too many runs to score, ultimately bridging the gap between a respectable season and one that could have seen the team competing in the postseason.

Even though the Pirates were a solid run-scoring team that wound up 6th in the league in runs scored, they were shut out 15 times. There were 3 teams that were shut out just as many times: the Mets, the Mariners, and the Angels. The Guardians were shut out 16 times, and the Reds 17 times. There were 7 teams in baseball that were shut out 8 or 9 times, which put them in the 10th through 16th positions in the league. The Pirates had 6 games where they lost 2 or 3 to nothing. I do not think it is much of a stretch to say that if the Pirates had scored some runs in those games, they could have won half of them. That would have added 3 wins to their total. Granted, just because you are not shut out does not mean you are going to win the game, but it at least gives you a chance. The Cubs had the number 1 offense in the league, and they were shut out 14 times. Other than that, all the other bottom 10 teams in terms of being shut out had much worse offenses than the Pirates. Of the teams that were tied or worse than the Pirates, the highest-ranked offense was the Mets at 19th in the league. We are speculating on the possible extra wins here; we could be off in either direction. The next stat we do not have to speculate on to know that this alone cost the Pirates a spot in the postseason.

In games where the Pirates scored 7 runs or more, they unfortunately lost 10 of those contests, highlighting a troubling trend in their performance. The only team worse in the league than the Pirates was the lowly Colorado Rockies, who suffered a staggering 12 losses under similar circumstances. Overall, the Rockies ended up losing 104 games during the season, underscoring their struggles. In striking contrast, two teams, the Mets and the Red Sox, showcased remarkable consistency, failing to lose a single game throughout the year whenever they managed to score 7 runs. Additionally, there were 4 teams that only lost one game in these high-scoring scenarios, while another 4 teams faced defeat just twice. Remarkably, a total of 18 teams only lost 4 games when scoring 7 runs or more, yet it’s worth noting that half of these teams did not secure a spot in the playoffs. If the Pirates had merely performed at or slightly above league average, it’s entirely possible they could have added an extra 10 to 12 wins to their season total. Such an improvement would have effectively catapulted them into playoff contention. The reality is, the Pirates essentially gave away far too many games throughout the season. This sense of disappointment and unfulfilled potential will inevitably make this winter seem even longer as the team evaluates their performance and prepares for the challenges ahead.

Speaking of the playoffs they are about ready to move into the division series. The White Sox, Yankees and Padres have won the Wild Card series 2-0 to advance. The Braves and Phillies play an elimination game tonight. The visiting teams have a chance to go 2-2. Stay tuned.