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Pirates Morning Report: What’s Next

The playoffs are in full swing, so we are not officially into the off season quite yet, but it is not too early to speculate and dream. The Pirates usually spend the off season signing low to mid-level free agents to fill in some gaps until prospects come up. The regular season was barely put to bed, when contending for the playoffs was bandied about. Since it is so early, let’s look at two things that are very unlikely to happen. The Pirates make no moves, or they make a big splash free agent signing. What would the 2024 Pirates look like if they went with just the players they have now.

As far as the position players are concerned, which normally number 13, there would be 7 players that would be locks to be on the team next year. Ke’Bryan Hayes, Bryan Reynolds, Jack Suwinski, Oneil Cruz, Henry Davis, Endy Rodriguez, and Jared Triolo. Triolo’s strong finish, where he showed he might have some power potential, and his solid play at first base, easily puts him on this team at the moment. Triolo ended the season with an OPS+ of 116, higher than any other Pirate regular. That leaves 6 spots for the remaining players on the 40-man roster. They are Jason Delay, Ji Hwan Bae, Vinny Capra, Nick Gonzales, Tucupita Marcano, Liover Peguero, Alphonso Rivas, Alika Williams, Miguel Andujar, Connor Joe, Josh Palacios, Canaan Smith-Njigba, and last but certainly not least Andrew McCutchen. Vinny Capra and Alika Williams can be eliminated for obvious reasons which puts us down to 11 players. If the Pirates sign McCutchen, which is not a given, he will be on the team. I always felt they should have signed McCutchen beginning in 2021. I will admit I’m not too sure if it is the best move now, even if he comes on the cheap. I know all the positives of signing him, but they are all on the subjective side. I don’t know how much that is going to win you ball games. If they do sign him to a 1-year deal, I would not be upset or critical. I could say the same thing if they do not sign him. For the sake of argument, I will assume they sign him, and he takes the 8th spot on the roster. Next, we have the trio Gonzales, Marcano, and Peguero. All can play 2nd base, Marcano is the only glove man and the other 2 have some defensive issues but supposedly are better hitters. So far, Peguero and Gonzales have not shown they are major league hitters yet. Gonzales has had a smaller sample size, but it is underwhelming so far. Marcano has shown for sure he cannot hit big league pitching. All three will not be on the roster. I do not know if even 2 should be on the roster, but I am going with Peguero and Gonzales because of more potential and the Pirates need bats. Marcano is a good glove man, but he is not elite. That leaves 3 spots. I do not see Alphonso Rivas or Connor Joe being on this team next year. They are league average hitters, but their defense leaves a lot to be desired. Connor Joe is over 30 and Rivas is going on 28 these are not players that are going to put you in the playoffs. That leaves Jason Delay, Ji Hwan Bae, Miguel Andujar, Josh Palacios, Canaan Smith-Njigba, for the final 3 spots. During the final game of the season, the Pirate broadcast booth said that the Pirates are going to let Henry Davis catch in 2024. Even if this is true, I do not think this eliminates Jason Delay from the team. This can increase the flexibility of the Pirate lineup with 3 potential catchers. I am going to put him on the team. The final two spots go to Ji Hwan Bae and Miguel Andujar. Bae because of his potential. If he can walk like he did in AAA, then he will be an asset. I do not care if he ever bunts. He has got to be able to do the process that he incorporated in AAA to get more walks. If he can’t do this then back to the minors he goes. Even though I picked Andujar, I feel it is a tossup on all 3 players. One of the biggest disappointments in 2023 was Smith-Njigba. He did get hot at the end of 2023 in AAA, but will that ever happen at the next level. He is heading into his age 25 season, so you have to figure it is now or never in 2024. Then there is the curious case of Josh Palacios. Here are the cold hard facts on Palacious. He is heading into his age 29 season. In 264 plate appearances his slash line reads, .239/.279/.413, for an OPS+ of 86. His WAR was -0.2. He is a below average fielder in every defensive metric. However, he always seemed to find himself in big situations and he came through many times to get a lot of big hits. Even though I favored Andujar I am still not sure you can put much stock in his good September. What all this is telling you is that the Pirates need an outfielder.

What better way to fill that need than to make the splash signing of Cory Bellinger. Bellinger had the very nice bounce back year with the Cubs having an OPS+ of 133, way above what any Pirate did this year. Very solid indeed, but he did not approach his MVP season. There is no question he will be a highly sought after free agent, but I do not think he will bring one of those mega deals. I think he is a 200-million-dollar man but not a 300-million-dollar man. The Pirates could certainly pull this off if they wanted to. Not a likely happening but if you’re not going to dream now, you will never have a chance.

The other interesting thing about 2024 will be what will the Pirates do with Oneil Cruz. They have a plethora of middle infielders, so would they consider making him the right fielder, much like the Padres did with Fernando Tatis. Would they move him to 1st base? No matter what, the major factor is that Cruz needs to make a full recovery from his broken leg/ankle.

On the pitching side of the ledger what would the starting rotation and the bullpen look like in 2024 if the Pirates made no moves. The rotation would set up like this. Mitch Keller, Max Kranick, Luis Ortiz, Quinn Priester, and Johann Oviedo. If Roansy Contreras can regain his old form, then he might get back into the rotation. J. T. Brubaker should be ready to pitch sometime in June. First round pick Paul Skenes seems pretty determined to make the club right from spring training. Despite his determination that would be shocking. However, it is not unfathomable that he may be pitching for the Pirates in June. The rotation does not look as bleak as you might have thought, and the bullpen is very solid. Just to list the 8 guys I would put in the bullpen, they are David Bednar, Colin Holderman, Andre Jackson, Carmen Mlodzinski, Dauri Moreta, Kyle Nicolas and rounding out with the left handers Ryan Borucki and Bailey Falter. My pick of Nicolas may surprise some but after that horrible debut he pitched 5 innings gave up 1 run, 4 hits, striking out 7 and his stuff looked awesome. Cody Bolton and Hunter Stratton are good options if any of the above falter or get injured. Will the previous mentioned Jarlin Garcia ever pitch again? Who knows? Only the Shelton knows. There are some big-time pitchers that are becoming free agents, but I do not think the Pirates will try to sign any of them. As much as I would like to see the Pirates sign Bellinger, I am not expecting that either.

Could this be the first off season where the Pirates sign a free agent that will get the fans excited. Like every off season, there will be plenty of names out there, both position players and pitchers. Would the Pirates make a trade to upgrade the team. Right now, they do have this overflow of middle infielders, especially if they decide to leave Cruz at shortstop. I do not see this happening, but it opens up all kinds of possibilities to improve the team. Looking at the team right now, I think there are three things that need to happen if the Pirates are going to jump to 85 to 92 wins which usually gets you in the playoffs. This year it took 84 in the National League and 89 in the American League. Ji Hwan Bae needs to become the AAA hitter he is, in the Major Leagues. If he could post an on base percentage of .360 or better the Pirates would have a great 1-2 punch at the top of the order with him and McCutchen, if he is signed. Oneil Cruz needs to put in a full season and have a 4 WAR year. The pitching has to make a comeback. Despite all the injuries the Pirates have an amazing number of young arms. Even more than what we named earlier. There could be a pitcher in AA and AAA that could be the big surprise in 2024. The offseason is always a fluid situation and right now we have no idea what kind of moves the Pirates will or won’t do. No matter what they do, it will still be one of the most interesting off seasons the Pirates have had in a long long time.

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Pirates Morning Report: 2023 Season Wrap Up

The Pirates won 76 games in 2023, a 14-game improvement over 2022. They wound up being tied for 21st place in a 30-team league. What is rather remarkable, is that they are about in the same place, in what I believe are the most important categories. In other words, all phases of their game need to improve equally. Looking on the offensive side, they are 22nd in runs per game with 4.27, 21st in On Base Percentage with .315, and 23rd in the comparison stat OPS+ with 92, where 100 is league average. Pitching, the Pirates are 22nd in preventing runs, giving up 4.88 per game, Fielding Independent Pitching 21st, with 4.40, and 22nd in the comparison stat, ERA+ at 97, with 100 league average. Nothing surprising here, with the both the batting and pitching being below league average. The Pirates did improve their fielding, finishing 18th in the Baseball Reference stat, Defensive Efficiency, compared to 27th last year. According to Wins Above Replacement (WAR) the Pirates worst 2 positions were catching and right field both ranking 29th. It is obvious that catching should improve overall next year. Coming in at 28th were 2nd and shortstop, somewhat surprising in my mind but those positions have a lot of elite players. Coming in at 24th were the starting pitchers and centerfield. Jack Suwinski and Ji Hwan Bae were the 2 who played that position the most. The Pirates were the 23rd best pinch-hitting club in baseball. The bullpen came in 18th in WAR. The first position to be in the upper half of the league Bryan Reynolds in left field at 14th. DH was next at 13th, where Andrew McCutchen had the most plate appearances by a wide margin over Bryan Reynolds. Thanks to Carlos Santana, who is no longer a Pirate, 1st base came in 12th. According to WAR Ke’Bryan Hayes was the big factor in putting 3rd base in the number 2 position. It certainly looks like Hayes will pick up his first Gold Glove. It is obvious where the Pirates need help, and I will get into that when we look at what the Pirates may or may not do going forward to the 2024 season.

I wrote about a week ago, that despite the Pirates winning 14 more games, the season was a disappointment. Losing Oneil Cruz for the season in mid April was a huge loss. The other injury, that was more or less swept under the rug, was the strange nerve problem of left hand reliever Jarlin Garcia, who the Pirates signed as a free agent over the previous winter. He had pitched in 285 games over the past 6 seasons with an ERA+ of 112. He would have helped the bullpen immensely, but instead never threw one pitch. I thought the Pirates would win around 80 to 85 games with the pitching being the main strength of the team. That’s where I was wrong. The pitching took a major step backward in 2023 and none more so than Roansy Contreras and Luis Ortiz. Let’s just look at the run prevention stat of ERA+, from one year to the next. Contreras’s ERA+ in 2022, 107 and in 2023, 67. He goes from being solidly above league average to way below league average with no physical problems. Luis Ortiz had an ERA+ essentially the same for both years at 92 and 93 respectively but he had one horrendous start at the end of 2022 that brought this number down. Both he and Contreras had huge drops in velocity at around 3 MPH less than they were throwing in 2023. Mitch Keller even though he did not regress never really made any big improvement. In 2022, he had an ERA+ of 104, 2023 ERA+ 105. Johan Oviedo in 2022 with both the Cardinals and the Pirates had an ERA+ of 126 in 21 games. This year, in 32 games his ERA+ was 103. Colin Holderman has digressed since coming from the Mets. They had better find a new coaching philosophy if this type of regression is going to stop. Then there is Robert Stephenson who the Pirates traded to Tampa Bay. With the Pirates, 111 batters faced, ERA+ 102. With the Rays, 140 batters faced, ERA+ 179. Are the Pirates really looking at these guys? The pitching which looked so good going into 2023 now looks like it could be a major concern.

With the stats, it is obvious where the Pirates need help. They need a right fielder. They need some stability at short and 2nd base. They now need some starting pitching because of injury and poor performances. What will the Pirates do in the coming off season? Who knows? What should they do in the coming off season? The subject of the next blog.

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Details of Your Life

What details of your life could you pay more attention to?

Another question that is difficult to totally comprehend. First the wording. I admit, I did read some of the answers, and almost everyone answered with details that they should pay attention to. The question was, could you pay attention to. This question implies that there are details in your life that you are completely ignoring, or simply don’t care. There is the issue of what exactly are the details of your life? Is your soulmate a detail of your life? Are there moments of the day when your life has no details? Are details classified? We all know the saying don’t sweat the small stuff. I am going to reword the the question. What is the most important detail of your life that you SHOULD pay more attention to? For me, as an ever growing older senior citizen the answer is very simple. When I am about to pass gas, making sure, that is all I do. It definitely makes my world a better place.

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Pirates Morning Report: The Final Game

Final Score: Pirates 3. Marlins 0

Why The Pirates Won: A dominant performance by the Pirates bullpen led the Pirates to victory in the final game of the season. They gave up only 3 hits and walked 1. The Marlins had one at bat with runners in scoring position. Jackson, Bido, Nicolas, Moreta, and Bednar, all pitched well striking out 11 Marlins. For the 4th consecutive game the Pirates scored 3 runs and this time waited until the bottom of the 8th to do it. They only had 6 hits but walked 5 times. Lots of traffic but few runs for the 4th time. Yesterday it was more than enough with such a great pitching performance. When you hold the opponent scoreless you usually win.

The Key Moment Of The Game: The breakthrough inning for the Pirates that produced the 3 runs in the bottom of the eighth. After one out, Conner Joe doubled down the left field line. Jared Triola walked. Miguel Andujar doubled to left to drive in Joe and send Triola to third. What is ironic, that may have been the last at bats for Joe and Andujar in a Pirates uniform. Jack Suwinski doubled, again down the left field line and the Pirates had a 3-0 lead, that they protected easily in the top of the 9th inning.

Next Game: March 28, Marlins in Miami. Yes the Pirates open against the team they finished with, the Marlins. I will be doing an in depth look at this season and looking into the future to see what the Pirates might do in the 2024 season. They wound up improving 14 games from last year with a final record of 76-86. When the season started the Pirates had only two position players from their 2022 opening day team, Bryan Reynolds and Ke’Bryan Hayes. Next season you can add the name Jack Suwinski and that may be it. More on that later in the week.

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Pirates Morning Report: Same Pattern, Another Loss

Final Score: Pirates 3. Marlins 7

Why The Pirates Lost: For the third consecutive game, the Pirates had lots of hits and base runners, but few runs to show for it. In this game they were even worse than the previous two. They had 12 hits and a walk but could only score 3 runs. They were 2 for 14 with runners in scoring position and left 12 men on base. Quinn Priester pitched ok, going 5 and 1/3 innings, being charged with 4 runs on 10 hits, walking 1, striking out 3, while throwing 98 pitches. He had a particularly hard luck 6th inning. The bullpen pretty much stunk giving up 3 runs over the last 3 innings so the Marlins could clinch the playoffs rather easily.

Key Moment Of The Game: The score was tied 2-2 going into the top of the 6th inning. This was the inning that showed how a playoff bound team takes advantage of breaks and manufactures runs. They opened the inning with a walk on a 3-2 pitch that should have been called a strike. A bunt base hit put runners on 1st and 2nd with no outs. A sacrificed bunt moved the runners to 2nd and 3rd. From there the Marlins pushed 2 runs across on a ground ball that beat the throw home, and a sacrifice fly to take a 4-2 lead. From there, thanks to the Pirate bullpen they coasted to a 7-3 win.

Final Game: This afternoon, Marlins in Pittsburgh. The Pirates will put a cap on the 2023 season today. They will have improved their record by either 13 or 14 games depending on the outcome of todays game. In my view despite the improvement and more than their share of injuries, this season has been a bit of a disappointment. I will be coming home from San Diego on Tuesday and delve into the 2023 season then.

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The Valuable Trait

What’s the trait you value most about yourself?

The one thing my father instilled in me during my childhood was the work ethic. In order to achieve anything in life, you had to be willing to work for it. It is one of many things that he taught me and to this day he was my best teacher. It is the highest compliment I can pay my father because I spent spent 19 years going to school and obviously had many teachers over this period of time, but he was by far the best. I was never afraid to put the hours in to get the job done. Things came to me easier than most, but I had to put in long hours to get good grades and build a business. Thanks to my Dad I loved every minute of it. The work ethic is the trait I have carried through my entire life and is by far my most valuable trait.

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Pirates Morning Report: This Time It Cost Them

Final Score: Pirates 3. Marlins 4

Why The Pirates Lost: For the 2nd game in a row the Pirates had a similar offensive performance, but this time it cost them. The Pirates could only score 3 runs, even though they had 9 hits and 4 walks. They were only 2 for 13 with runners in scoring position and left 9 men on base again. The bullpen game was going along quite nicely until Colin Shelby came into the game with one out and nobody on in the top of the 8th, with the Pirates leading 3-0. Nineteen pitches and five batters later the score was tied 3-3 with runners on 1st and 3rd and still only one out. Shelby had not retired a batter. A sacrifice fly and the Marlins had a 4-3 lead that they protected over the last 2 innings. The Pirates did not put up much of a fight getting only one man on base.

The Key Moment Of The Game: When Colin Shelby came into the came and was allowed to pitch to 5 batters without gettin an out. Oscar Marin made his usual worthless trip out to the mound but the Pirates did not get the bullpen up until it was too late and Shelby left the game with a nice fat round ERA of 9. The Marlins apparently voted him a share if they make the playoffs, so all was not lost for Shelby.

Next Game: Tonight, Marlins in Pittsburgh. So much for the Pirates being spoilers as their ineptitude allowed the Marlins to come within one game of clinching the last playoff birth. Quinn Priester is going for the Pirates. Can he have two good starts in a row? He better because Shelton won’t be taking him out until he gives up 8 runs, minimum.

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Jobs

List three jobs you’d consider pursuing if money didn’t matter.

If I was pursuing jobs, which I’m not, I would do something in baseball, golf, or cooking. Baseball I could do something on the managing, coaching, front office side or announcing. I have always loved baseball and working inside the game would have been fun. Golf, I have worked in, teaching only briefly, but it would have been better if I had gone in early and worked my way up as a PGA professional. I am fascinated by the game and if I had pursued it full time early in my life, maybe I would have figured it out, but that is doubtful since it is something I have just about done 24/7 anyway, failing miserably. I took up cooking in my early 60’s and I think I wouldn’t mind preparing meals for a living. Something as a younger person I would have never dreamed of pursuing. There are plenty of fantasy jobs out there that I have thought about but those three are something that I could have actually done but did not. No regrets because I was lucky enough to do something I loved and was able to do it pretty much my way.

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Pirates Morning Report: Winning A Nail Biter For No. 75

Final Score: Pirates 3. Phillies 2

Why The Pirates Won: Some two out hitting and an overall solid pitching performance allowed the Pirates to salvage the 3rd game of the series, picking up their 75th win of the season and finishing the road trip 5-4. After getting off to a slow start,allowing the the first 3 batters to get on base, Luis Ortiz gave up only 2 hits and a walk over the next 15 outs. The bullpen gave up only 1 run on 1 hit over the last 4 innings. On the other side of the coin the Pirate offensive stats looked like this should have been a blowout. Despite getting some big 2 out hits, the Pirates could only muster 3 runs on 11 hits and 2 walks. They were 3 for 8 with runners in scoring position but still managed to leave 9 men on base for the game. If they would have lost this game it would have really been a hard one to swallow. When you win, everything is fine.

Key Moments Of The Game: In the first inning Luis Ortiz started the game by giving up a home run, double, and a walk to make the score 1-0 with runners on first and second nobody out. The next batter for the Phillies hit a sinking line drive to center field that Jack Suwinski made a “routine” grab right off his shoe tops. Even the umpires weren’t sure he caught it but he did. From that point on Ortiz was in control. The score was tied 1-1 in the top of the 5th with 2 outs and nobody on. Bryan Reynolds hit a ground ball that just got by the shortstop for a single to left. Jared Triola hit a shot into the right center field gap to bring Reynolds home. Suwinski followed up with a sinking line drive to center, similar to the one he caught, but this one fell in for him, giving the Pirates a 3-1 lead they never relinquished.

Next Game: Tonight, Marlins in Pittsburgh. The Marlins at the moment have the inside track for the final wild card spot over the oil spilling mismanaged Cubs. After last nights suspended game the Marlins have a half game lead and the tie breaker over the Cubs. That’s not too say that the young Bucs can’t make life pretty miserable for the Fish. It should be a fun weekend to close out the season.

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Pirates Morning Report: Bad Oviedo

Final Score: Pirates 6. Phillies 7

Why The Pirates Lost: After being staked to a 5 run lead Johan Oviedo couldn’t keep his act together turning into bad Oviedo after 3 innings. Oviedo was allowed to pitch 5 innings giving up 6 runs, 7 hits, walking 2, striking out 6 while throwing 91 pitches. After the game Oviedo said he needs to be more mean. Is that consistent in another language? It’s too bad he did not get taken out of the game sooner or the Pirates might have won the game. The bats came alive, well at least 6 of them did, putting up 6 runs on 11 hits and 4 walks. The lower third of the order went 0 for 11 with 1 walk. It was the Pirates 2nd one run loss to the Phillies and their 3rd loss in a row. It was a disappointing loss with the Pirates blowing a 5 run lead thanks to the inconsistent but overly nice Johan Oviedo. By the way Robbie, Mike Shit is one of my favorite players, too.

Key Moment Of The Game: This is an easy one. The very nice Johan Oviedo serving up a 95 MPH fastball right over the middle of the plate letter high to Garrett Stubbs allowing him to hit a 2 out 3 run home run to cut the Pirates’ lead to 5-4. It was his 1st homer of the season. He is now slugging .283. Oviedo felt sorry for him and thought what the hell let’s give him a chance. It got the Phillies back in the game and they went on to win 7-6.

Next Game: Tonight, Phillies in Philadelphia. The road trip now stands at 4-4, which is still one game better than I thought they would do. It would be nice to see them have a 5-4 road trip. Last nights game was the one they should have probably won. They are going up against Zach Wheeler, but stranger things have happened, so they may get a win tonight but I’m not optimistic.