Pirates Morning Report: The Blake Snell Signing, High Risk But What Kind Of Reward.

The Dodgers signed Blake Snell to a 5 year contract that will pay him about 36 million a year for the next 5 years. Blake Snell was a high risk signing. He has played in the majors for 9 seasons. In only 2 of those seasons has he pitched in over 30 games. He has had 2 outstanding seasons which has netted him 2 Cy Young awards. Besides not coming to the post all that often his overall numbers are not that impressive. His career OPS+, the comparison stat where 100 is league average, is 128. Simply put, over the past 9 years he has pitched better than 28% of major league pitchers. Max Fried of the Braves is a free agent also this year. His career OPS+ over 8 years is 140. He has had his share of injuries, even more so than Snell. He has averaged 21 starts per year whereas Snell has averaged close to 24 starts. Snell’s biggest problem is his control. Even his Cy Young year with the Padres he averaged 5 walks per 9 innings. Until Snell threw his no hitter this year where he went 9 innings, he had never had a complete game. Let that one sink in for a while. Naturally when the Dodgers signed Snell all of the media was moaning and complaining that the system is broken, blah blah blah. The idea that only about 5 or 6 teams could afford Snell is ridiculous. Even the Pirates could afford Snell even though they would never admit it. However, what teams like the Pirates cannot do is take the risk of Snell having a mediocre year which he did for 3 of those 9 years. They also cannot take the risk of him taking the mound only 24 times or less which he did 5 out of 9 seasons. The Dodgers can take that risk and are taking that risk. In my view it is a big risk. The Dodgers have one of the strongest stables of starting pitching in all of baseball. The question will be how many of them will be able to come to the post. Not many did last year for various reasons. Despite all of this the Dodgers did manage to win the World Series. They still have the big three, Betts, Ohtani, and Freeman, who combined for 15 WAR last year. The starting 9 for the Pirates had a combined WAR of 8. This was not a player that the Pirates needed to or should have signed. It is obvious they need position players. Even for the Dodgers the Blake Snell signing is a burden for their payroll. It is very likely a signing that they will regret.