Tag: college football playoffs

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Sports: College Football Playoffs, Semifinals

The bye teams took it on the chin again in the 2nd year of the 12-team format of the college football playoffs. Last year all 4 bye teams lost. This year only Indiana won as they easily disposed of Alabama 38-3. The bye teams’ failures were led by Ohio State, who lost to Miami 24-14. Miami jumped out to a 14-0 halftime lead thanks to a pick-6 in the 2nd quarter. This was the first time Ohio State trailed by 14 all season, and it showed. One of the hallmarks of the Ohio State offense is that they took their time, ate up a lot of clock, and scored. They ran the fewest plays of almost any team in college football. This is all well and good when you are in the lead or the game is close. Despite the fact that they trailed by 14, they came out with no sense of urgency in the 2nd half. They scored on their first two drives of the 2nd half. They only got the ball one more time when the game mattered and could not cash in. Their vaunted defense could not get off the field, and Miami put 10 points on the board that sealed the deal. Oregon completely stifled the Texas Tech offense, and if they had taken advantage of all their opportunities, would have probably won the game 45-0. As it was, they easily won 23-0. In the 4th and final game, Mississippi continued to roll and upset Georgia 39-35. The key play of this game was when Kirby Smart decided to go for it on 4th and 2 on Georgia’s own 33-yard line. There was just under 10 minutes to go in the game, and Georgia trailed 27-24. The play was a disaster that resulted in a 10-yard sack and fumble. Mississippi wasted no time, scoring in just 2 plays and 29 seconds to take a 34 to 24 lead. Even though Georgia did come back and tie the game, we will never know if the outcome would have been different if Georgia had punted. One thing is for sure: the outcome could not have come out any worse. The bye teams are now 1 win and 7 losses in the playoffs. The obvious reason for this is the long layoff that these teams have to take. In the past, with 2-team and 4-team playoffs, the teams’ layoffs were equal. Now that we have this first-round game, the longest the 5 through 12 have off is about 9 to 10 days. The sample size is small, but if this trend continues, there will need to be changes. There are two easy solutions: go to a 16-team format, which would have no byes then, or start the playoffs the week after the field is set and play every week after that. At that schedule, the championship game would be played around January 1, with the pro playoffs not even starting. Let’s take a look at the semifinals.

There is no question Indiana looks poised to bring home the National Championship. They were most impressive in their drubbing of Alabama. They have a defense that nobody really seems to talk about much, and when the chips are down, the offense seems to come through. They will play Oregon on Friday night in Atlanta. Just like in the quarterfinals, they will not be able to mail it in, but with Curt Cignetti coaching, you just do not see that happening. I think Oregon has a chance, but they can’t squander the opportunities like they did against Texas Tech. The key will be, can Oregon slow down the Indiana offense? Both special teams seem to be solid. Of course, turnovers always play a role. Indiana is good at taking care of the ball. Oregon will have to be firing on all cylinders if they are going to pull off the upset. The first game has the two surprise teams: the Miami Hurricanes vs. the Old Miss Rebels. Miami’s defense has been the reason this team is in the semifinals. In the first 6 quarters of playoff football, they gave up only 3 points. No question, Ohio State moved the ball on them in the 2nd half. Maybe they knew that Ohio State did not like to play fast for whatever reason. When the game was on the line and Ohio State had the ball with a chance to tie or win the game, the Miami defense came through to stop the Buckeyes. Mississippi, on the other hand, has been an offensive juggernaut. They have never scored less than 24 points in a game all season. Miami’s offense has come alive somewhat at the end of the season. You get the feeling that if Mississippi can play their offensive game, then Miami just will not be able to keep up. My fearless prediction: Mississippi and Indiana for the title.

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Sports: College Football Playoffs, Quarterfinals

The first round of the College Football Playoff had no major surprises. Oregon and Mississippi destroyed both teams that had no business being in the playoffs. In the two competitive games I was wrong on both games which is no surprise either. Oklahoma jumped out to a 17-0 lead on Alabama. Then Oklahoma started to give the game away. A punter that couldn’t punt and a pick 6 at the end of the half enabled Alabama to tie the game and completely turned the game around. It seemed to deflate the Oklahoma defense and a rejuvenated Alabama offense took over the game. There was no rejuvenating the Texas A&M offense. For the second straight game it really could do nothing. Field goal failures continued to plaque them. A late drive to tie the game ended in an interception and Miami pulled out the 10-3 win. The quarterfinals start on New Years Eve night.

Ohio State and Miami kick things off on Wednesday night. Then there is a triple header on Thursday starting with Oregon and Texas Tech in the Orange Bowl. That is followed by Alabama and Indiana in the Rose Bowl. The last game of the day should be the most intriguing with Mississippi playing Georgia in the Sugar Bowl. To cut to the chase I think the 3 Big Ten teams will win and Georgia. Having said that, I think all the games will be competitive and all 4 picks will have to be on their game to win. There will be no gimme’s in this round. I think this will be the lowest scoring playoffs in history. These are very elite defenses with the final 8. The rematch between Mississippi and Georgia is by far the most interesting. They played a very strange game when they met earlier this year. Georgia scored a touchdown or field goal on every possession they had. There was no cheapies involved. The drives were all over 70 yards. Mississippi did the same thing until their first drive of the 4th quarter. This was when Georgia took their first lead of the game. I will be shocked if this rematch follows the same pattern. I expect all the games to be hard fought defensive games. Turnovers and special teams will be the keys to victory in all four games. A college football fans dream come true will start on New Year’s Eve.

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Sports: College Football Semifinals

We are down to a final 4 in college football, Penn St. Ohio St. Notre Dame and Texas. To me the most surprising game was the way Ohio St. handled Oregon. In fact, Ohio St. was the only winner to have a statistical edge. Let’s face it Buckeye fans, which I am a proud member, this football team looked like it was doing it with mirrors all season. They habitually got off to slow starts and trailed such teams as Northwestern, Akron, Indiana, only scoring 7 first half points against Iowa, almost losing to Nebraska at home, and finally ending the season with that abysmal performance against Michigan. That loss to Michigan must have woken up the entire team and coaching staff because this looks like an entirely different team in the playoffs. The key to their success is they have used the passing game to set up the running game rather than the usual reverse. They have started both games on fire, leading Tennessee by 21-0 and Oregon by a whopping 34-0 before the first half ended. I wasn’t a believer after the Tennessee game because Tennessee had many key injuries, but after this game Ohio St. is the odds-on favorite to go all the way. My second biggest surprise was the way Georgia shut down the Notre Dame running game. Neither offense shined but Georgia outgained Notre Dame 296 to 240. The two turnovers for Georgia and the opening half kickoff return for a touchdown by Notre Dame to take a 20-3 lead were the keys to victory. Although no surprise to me but I think this was lost on the media, was the way Arizona St. totally dominated Texas, but lost because of ineptitude in Texas territory and one of the worst non targeting calls in the history of college football. Arizona St had drives that reached the Texas 25, 34, 19, and 2 yard lines and walked away with no points. The drive that ended on the 2 did eventually give ASU a safety, but at a minimum they left 16 points on the field which would have won the ball game easily. ASU out gained Texas 510 to 375, made 29 first downs to 17 for Texas and controlled the ball for almost 38 minutes of the game. Arizona St. was clearly the better team, but the inconsistent Texas offense came up with enough big plays and returned a punt for a touchdown to pull out the win. Boise St. put up a game fight against Penn St. even outgaining them 412 to 387. Four turnovers and a critical hands to the face penalty nullifying a 20 yard pass and run touchdown which would have made the score 24-21 with 30 seconds remaining in the 3rd quarter were the things that sealed the victory for Penn St. Both of these controversial 3rd and 4th seeded teams put up competitive games, but we may still see a new way to seed teams’ next season. On to the semifinals.

The first game will pit Notre Dame against the Penn St. Nittany Lions and their disgusting incompetent coach James Franklin. Notre Dame should win this game on that fact alone. Despite not being able to run the ball in their normal fashion Notre Dame played about as complete of a game as possible. They played great defense, scored a special teams’ touchdown and quickly scored when Georgia turned the ball over deep in their own territory. Georgia never really threatened to make a game of it thanks to the Notre Dame defense. Many people felt that Penn St. had the easiest road to the semifinals because of the way the committee seeded the teams. I disagree. SMU for whatever reason just could not get out of the gate in their last 2 games of the season. Whether it was the pressure who knows. Boise St. played a good game and could have beaten Penn St. The Nittany lion defense has played well the whole playoffs. This game is going to come down to who can run the ball better. I think Notre Dame has two other advantages. They have the better coach by far and Notre Dame’s quarterback, Riley Leonard seems to be able to improvise better than his Penn St. counterpart. It should be a good game but I think Notre Dame prevails.

The second game will see the red hot Ohio State Buckeyes go up against the Texas Longhorns. The Texas offense will be the key to this game. I do not think they can go 42 minutes without scoring against Ohio State and win this game. When the Texas offense is on, they are explosive and pretty much unstoppable. The two overtime periods showed how this offense is so inconsistent. In the first overtime it took a 4th and 15 30 yard touchdown pass to save the day for Texas. In the 2nd overtime they scored on one play. Their defense will have their hands full with the Ohio St. offense. The Texas offense needs to control the clock and score points in the process. Texas has had offensive inconsistencies all year. It is unlikely that they are going to find that consistency one game down the road. If OSU gets out of the gate fast for the third straight game, Texas is going to be victim no. 3.

We should see Ohio St. and Notre Dame in the championship game. I called the Penn St and Notre Dame game correct in the quarter finals but missed with the Buckeyes. I should have had the big upset pick, but Arizona St. couldn’t turn total domination into a win. The pressure will really be amping up and it will be fun to see how each team responds. Even though it has had its ups and downs it has been a great playoff season so far for College Football. The only question remains is what took you so long to do this NCAA College Football. It is a shame that this has not been going on for 50 years. See you after the semi finals.

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Sports: Only in NCAA College Football

Tonight, starts the Championship weekend in college football, when Oregon plays Utah in the Pac 12 Championship game. There are 4 other Power 5 Championship games and the AAC Championship game between the Cincinnati Bearcats and the Houston Cougars, which has playoff significance. Before we get to the, only in NCAA football, part of this blog, let’s look at the current playoff standings. The top ten from top to bottom are Georgia, Michigan, Alabama, Cincinnati, Oklahoma State, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Mississippi, Baylor, and Oregon. Ohio State and Mississippi do not play this weekend and have little or no chance of getting into the top four. Notre Dame does not play either this weekend, but could move into the top four, depending on the outcomes of the championship games. It basically boils down to 8 teams for 4 spots. From here on in we will refer to this happening only in college football, leaving out the NCAA part, even though we know this is all their responsibility.

Only in college football would a major conference champion not have a shot at the national title. There are no Atlantic Coast Conference teams in the top 10 with Pitt being the highest ranked at no.15. There is no scenario that will put either Pitt or Wake Forest in the final four. It is very possible that as many as 3 conference champions will not have a chance at a national championship and remote possibility that only one conference champion will be in the top 4. If Alabama beats Georgia, and all the underdogs win, Alabama will most likely be the only conference champion in. College football really knows how to devalue a conference championship. Even if Oregon would win big against Utah, they have only a very slim chance of getting into the playoffs. At minimum two conference champions will not get in.

When it gets down to playoff time, other sports love the saying, it’s time to win or go home. Only in college football does that saying get changed to win and go home. This could easily happen to the Cincinnati Bearcats. If they have a real nail biter against Houston and win, and Oklahoma State wins big against Baylor, they could easily move up to the fourth spot, and push Cincinnati right out the door. Let’s face it, the pressure on Cincinnati this week is enormous on all fronts. To make the final four would be historic for a non-Power 5 Conference team. Their coach, Luke Fickell is being considered for many top coaching jobs, and there can be no movement on that until Cincinnati is out of playoff contention. It would be one of the great coaching accomplishments of all time, if Cincinnati wins the National Championship. Let’s hope if they win, they’re in, will come true. I am not too sure in the crazy college football world, that this is going to happen. On the other side of the coin, Georgia can lose, and still be in the top 4. I do not even think there is a number they could lose by, that would throw them out of the playoffs, even though I think there should be. If Alabama wins by 21 or more, which is highly unlikely, would that be enough to make the SEC prejudiced committee, remove them from the top 4. My guess is no.

Only in college football could not playing to make the playoffs be a good thing. Notre Dame, who refuses to join a football conference, does not need to have many things go right for them to make the playoffs. If Alabama loses that may be all that is needed. If Cincinnati and Oklahoma State do not look good winning, and again you could only write something like this when discussing college football, this would only solidify their position. The final four would then be Georgia Michigan Notre Dame and the toss up would be between Oklahoma State and Cincinnati, instead of Notre Dame being in the toss up equation. All Notre Dame is going to do this weekend, is to watch football just like I am. Unless there is total chaos, Notre Dame chances of playing for a title should be as remote as the other teams not playing this weekend.

Only in college football would people wonder, what is going to happen if there is total chaos. In any other sport, Iowa, Baylor, Oregon and Pitt/Wake Forest would be in the playoffs and playing for a national title if they won this weekend. The only team that might sneak in, would be Oregon, with other three teams having no chance at all. If that scenario happens then Alabama might lose and still get in, with the way the committee thinks. The above results are very unlikely to happen, but if by some chance it does, the four teams that do get in, will only get in, because it can only happen in college football. It’s a shame, because college football is one of the most entertaining team sports to watch. it is much more fun to watch than the pro game. It is a shame that the NCAA does nothing to help it out and makes a mockery of the playoff system. It is a sad commentary when the best thing you can say about the college football playoff system is that it is better than nothing. Despite that, I will enjoy the games this weekend, with a secret hope for chaos, just to see what happens in the goofy world of committee football.