Tag: opening day

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Pirates Morning Report: Opening Day, Optimism Rampant

The Pirates open the 2024 baseball season tomorrow, visiting the Miami Marlins. There is much optimism for the coming season. This time last year it seemed like I was the only one that felt the Pirates might contend for a playoff spot. They got off to a hot start, but in the middle of that hot start Oneil Cruz suffered a season ending broken ankle. That essentially ended any hope that they would be a contender. This year many are writing that the Pirates will contend for a wild card and might even win the division. Certainly, the Pirates seem stronger this year in every phase of the game. What will determine how the 2024 season unfolds and how successful will the Pirates be? It goes without saying that the Pirates will need to avoid the devasting injury that befell Oneil Cruz last season. Assuming that the Pirates will remain relatively healthy, this is what must happen for the Pirates to make the playoffs or win the division.

I previously wrote that Ke’Bryan Hayes and Jared Triolo must come close to producing the offensive production that they showed the last 2 months of the 2023 season, and nothing has changed my mind. The Pirate management team showed they have a lot of faith in Triolo by making him the starting 2nd baseman. Last fall I thought Triolo would be on the team, but in the role of the super utility man playing 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and possibly shortstop. I also thought that the Pirates would keep both Nick Gonzales and Liover Peguero. Instead, they will both open the season in AAA. They did not show enough in spring training to warrant being kept on the team, once it was decided that Triolo would be the full-time 2nd baseman. Keeping Alika Williams was a surprise, but I imagine that that he will be sent down once Ji Hwan Bae is healthy. That says something about the Pirate offense, where management is comfortable playing a no-hit glove man once in a while. Speaking of Bae, in 16 plate appearances in spring training, he did walk 4 times, so there may be hope for him yet.

Bryan Reynolds must get closer to being the player he was in 2021. He has been in a steady decline since then. Looking at two areas, WAR and OPS+, beginning in 2021 his WAR has gone from 5.9 to 3.0 to 2.4 and his OPS+ has gone from 145 to 127 to 113. In order for this team to win the division Reynold must at least play between his 2021 and 2022 levels. In an earlier blog I mentioned that the Pirates would be fine if Reynolds even played at his 2023 level. Since that time, I have changed my mind especially if they want to win the division. Reynolds has not had a particularly great spring, slashing .196/261/476. I never put a lot of weight on springtime performance. He could be experimenting around a little with his approach and swing. I feel that Reynolds will bounce back because he just seems to be a solid skilled player. How much he bounces back will go a long way to determining how this Pirate season turns out. If he would continue his decline, then this may be the first Pirate problem of 2024. On the other hand, Jack Suwinski is headed in the right direction. Using the same formula, Suwinski has seen his WAR go from 1.2 in 2022 to 2.2 in 2023. His OPS+ went from 99 in 2022 to 115 in 2023. If he can continue this upward trend the Pirates will be able to take another step closer to the division title.

There is no question that once the Pirates acquired Michael Taylor and decided to play Triolo at 2nd base they were going to put their best defensive team on the field in this century. If Carlos Santana was going to be at first base, they might be putting the best defensive team in the league on the field in 2024. Even without Santana this will be a very strong defensive team at least on paper. Will they play to that potential in 2024? In my view it is a very likely occurrence. I have always gone with Baseball’s Reference’s Defensive Efficiency Rating as my main comparison stat when it comes to fielding. Last year the Pirates finished 18th in DER. I expect them to crack the top 5 this year if they are going to win the division.

Then there is the Pirate pitching staff. The Pirates are going to prove or disprove the theory that you cannot have enough pitching. They have 24 pitchers on the 40 man Roster and only 4 are 30 years old or older. The Pirates have 9 pitchers that could easily go into the starting rotation and by mid-season that number should grow to 11. Two mainstays of last year’s bullpen are going to start the season on the IL, Colin Holderman and Carmen Mlodzinski, and it looks like the bullpen will not miss a beat. Dauri Moreta is going to miss the entire season due to elbow surgery, but there is no talk of getting bullpen help. With the high number of arms that is on this squad, hopefully, they will find 13 that will be very good to excellent in run prevention. The Pirates should be better in every phase of the game, hitting, fielding, base running, and pitching. The question will be, will this be good enough and will the players perform to their expected levels.

Can this team win the division? As long as they can avoid the injury bug, I would say they have at least a 50-50 chance. Could the Pirates win the American League East or the National League West, not a chance in hell. Thankfully the Pirates are in the National League Central, where all the teams are in a state of transition. I think it will boil down to how does the core of the Pirates perform, Jack Suwinski, Bryan Reynolds, Oneil Cruz, Ke’Bryan Hayes, Jared Triolo, Henry Davis, and the starting pitcher that day. They will either be the Magnificent 7 or the 7 Little Foys. It should be one of the most interesting and exciting seasons that Pittsburgh has seen in about 10 years, starting tomorrow. The Pirates Morning Report will start on the following day with a concise, no nonsense look, (well maybe a little nonsense, I just can’t help myself) at why the Pirates won or lost each game. I can hardly wait, but I must.

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Pirates Morning Report: Opening Day

Today starts the 2023 season for the Pittsburgh Pirates as they face off against the Cincinnati Reds in Cincinnati. As I look at the 26 man roster, I am happy with the 13 position players on the team. The pitching staff is another issue but more on them later. I will still hold to the prediction that this team will contend for the division title. As I have written previously there are some unknowns that will determine just how well the Pirates will do. To summarize the unknowns, just how good a manager is Derick Shelton, will management actually try to win games this year, and if this team gets to August playing meaningful games for the first time, how will the players respond? There is also avoiding the disastrous injury. Already the Pirates have 3 pitchers on the shelf. I think the biggest lost is Jarlin Garcia, the free agent left-handed reliever they signed over the winter. He seemed to be a solid addition, but then he got a strange nerve injury to his left arm, to the point he cannot even pick up a ball. There is no telling when he might be back. J. T. Brubaker is on the shelf, but Johan Oviedo should fill in for him quite nicely. What would be considered a disastrous injury. If Mitch Keller, Roansy Contreras, Bryan Reynolds or Oneil Cruz would miss a significant amount of time due to injury, it would be devastating, and all bets are off. Let’s take a look at the position players that are going to start the season.

I like all the decisions that the Pirates made concerning who they kept on the team. Many thought that Travis Swaggerty should be on the team with the very good spring that he had. He has shown nothing in 3 years in the minors and one good spring is not going to change that. If he shows the same batting skills in the minors during the first month and someone is struggling or injured, I’m sure he would get the call up, but I am not sure he will continue to hit in AAA. I felt Jason Delay was the best choice as backup catcher but let’s face it, sending down Endy Rodriguez is strictly a player control move. A switch hitter who is hitting at every level and is a catcher who plays other positions, sure let’s send him down. Especially since we have the worst hitting catcher in all of baseball in Austin Hedges. He better throw out every runner, never have a passed ball, and pitchers better carry him off the field every game for the way he handled them. The team can be divided into two groups. The young and up and coming group. The old veteran group with a few in between. The young group include Oneil Cruz, Bryan Reynolds, Jack Suwinski, Ke’Bryan Hayes, Rudolfo Castro, Ji Hwan Bae, and Canaan Smith-Njigba. Many have stated that this group played a lot last year and the Pirates still did not win many games. The fact remains that this group, particularly the first 5, were rarely in the line up at the same time. The Pirate management team continued to put on the field, way below major league level players, just to ensure losing games. These 5 should be together almost every game with Bae and Smith-Njigba being key bench players. The old group is Andrew McCutchen 36, Carlos Santana, who will be 37 in April, Ji-Man Choi 32 in May, Conner Joe and Austin Hedges who both will be turning 31 during the season. The man in the middle is the backup catcher Jason Delay who is 28. This group needs to stay healthy and improve their play just a touch to make this team a contender. Nobody needs to have a career year. They just have to be a nice 2 WAR player and the Pirates will make a solid move forward. The good news here is that there are plenty of good young players down on the farm, if any of this group gets hurt or really falters. This group should be the steadying influence, if there are meaningful games to be played in August and September. They know what it is like to play in the heat of a pennant race. With the exception of Rodriguez, the Pirates are taking the 13 best players up North. They could not come close to saying that last year. Now for the pitchers, where I do not have the same warm fuzzy feeling.

Back in the fall I wrote that one of the prerequisites for the Pirates to be a contender would be that certain players should not be on the team. They have fulfilled that, except for good old Dwayne Underwood Junior, who will be referred to as DUJ, from this moment on. Now, maybe he is on the team because of other pitchers going down with problems, but this just points to the fact that the Pirates really did not do that much to shore up the bullpen during the offseason. The acquisition of Vince Velasquez is still one that has me scratching my head. There is nothing in his pedigree that suggests he is going to be an average Major League pitcher. He has a career ERA of 4.93 and ERA+ of 85. What I find interesting about him, and Rich Hill is that both have a lot of bullpen experience. Velasquez has relieved 47 times in his career and Hill has come out of the bullpen 129 times. That versatility may make them have a different role than expected as the season moves forward. More on Rich Hill later, but the fact remains that the Pirates are not famous for revitalizing anyone’s career, but maybe Velasquez will be the first. Despite these misgivings I think the bullpen will do alright. The Pirates have to make some 40-man roster moves even as I write this, but it appears that they are going to go with 2 lefties and the core from last year. I think the performances of Will Crow, Colin Holderman, and Chase De Jong will be a big key to the overall success of this bullpen. The starting rotation should do fine and if they don’t, then a lot of young arms are ready to be called up. This pitching staff is the real wild card on this team. They could really stink or be the real strength of this team.

It is very easy to see what the key to success for this team will be. First, the young players have to show some progress. It would be nice to see an upgrade in their play of around 10 to 20%. Second, the old group just needs to be themselves. The perfect example is Rich Hill. His 162 game average stats are 10 wins 7 losses an ERA of 3.85 and an ERA+ 111. Even if he does what he did last year, 8-7 with an ERA+ 98 the Pirates will be just fine. The same could be said of the rest of the veteran group. Carlos Santana has averaged about 19 homers the last 3 seasons. If he only has 2 during the first 60 games then the Pirates are in trouble. Andrew McCutchen’s on base percentage over the last 3 years has been .325. If at the 60 game mark his OBP is under 300 then the things are not going well. You get the picture. It is not a big ask but the veterans need to be themselves if the team is going to have success. Today is one of the great days in sport and I love the fact that it is just called Opening Day. Everyone knows what sport you are talking about without saying any more. The 162-game journey begins today.

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Opening Day 2022 and Another Pirate Season is Underway

Opening day is tomorrow and without a doubt it is my favorite day of the year. The start of baseball season is the official start of spring and summer is on the way. The 162-game grind is about to begin. Every team in baseball is going to have its ups and downs, with exception of the Pirates who will be down all year. The idea of starting to watch baseball, even pathetic Pirate baseball, for the next 7 months, just makes me smile and feel really good. It is the American pastime. Baseball will be going through some changes that will hopefully get the game moving along a little better and provide more action. With the exception of the Pirates, the other 31 teams in the league, all have a legitimate shot at making the playoffs, even the Baltimore Orioles. There is probably more balance in the league than ever before. You do have the one super team, the Los Angeles Dodgers, but they did not win the pennant last year, let alone the World Series. The young talent in the league is at an all-time high. The left side of the infield in MLB, has the best players on that side of the field, in the history of the game. I am in Western Pennsylvania and the team I will be watching every day is the Pittsburgh Pirates. This year could be the worse year in their franchise history.

Last year at this time I gave a fairly optimistic view of the upcoming 2021 season, based on the fact that the Pirates had some quality Major League players on the roster. The pitching seemed a little thin, but I thought there was some potential for the staff to put a good season together. I thought that the Pirates would have a chance to surprise people with a little luck and things breaking the right way. Luck went out the window on opening day when Ke’Bryan Hayes injured his wrist on opening day, wound up only playing 96 games and became a below average hitter with a lot of soft contact. Speaking of soft contact, Kevin Newman struck out very few times last year but unfortunately probably set some kind of record for soft contact, becoming the worst hitter in all of baseball last season. He now has a new stance. Big whoop. Last year Cole Tucker did not make the team that lost 100 games last year. This year is on the opening day roster. That in a nutshell says how bad this team is going to be. The pitching staff has a few new faces but certainly not enough to make much difference for one of the worst pitching staffs of 2021. They were in the bottom 5 of every significant pitching stat. in 2021. They were 7th from the bottom in total strikeouts. The thing that was scary about this staff is that they seemed to digress as the season wore on. The Pirates fired their hitting coach last year, but I think they should have considered firing the pitching coach also. The Pirates have one Major League outfielder in Bryan Reynolds. One thing that will make the season interesting is how much ground he can cover in left center and right field, since he will be the only one out there capable of catching a ball. I think over 120 losses can be a possibility.

Is there anything that could happen that might keep the 2021 season from becoming a total disaster? Yes, there are always things that can happen, that might make this team play close to .500 ball. Ke’Bryan Hayes could come back and be the hitter he was in 2020 or come close. To say that Hayes’s drop off in offensive production was immense is an understatement. The wrist injury was devastating. If he can get close to the numbers of 2020, the Pirates will win a few more games. Mitch Keller had a very good spring training until his last outing. I have always maintained that spring training performance is meaningless, but it does get the media people excited. He touched 100 MPH with his fast ball and pitched 8 scoreless innings in spring training until he got roughed up the last time. There are some who are touting him to make the All-Star team this year. WOW! If he can develop into a mid-rotation starter, I would be thrilled and surprised. Kevin Newman could become an average Major League hitter, but I doubt it. Then there is Diego Castillo the spring training home run machine, who fought his way onto the team. One thing the Pirates need is the long ball, as again, they were the worst in baseball on knocking the ball out of the park and trailed the 29th place Arizona Diamondbacks by 20 home runs. The final factor will be how good and how much the Pirate prospects will see Major League action. There are at least a handful of them that are better than what is on this team right now. The excuse that is used by management for holding a prospect back from the big leagues is that they are afraid it may affect his confidence if gets off to a bad start, and he seems overmatched. Here are some slash lines Bat Ave./ On Base%/ Slugging. 243/290/428, 255/284/389, 267/317/351, 256/352/333, 223/330/416. Who put these numbers up. Willie Stargell, Roberto Clemente, Dick Groat, Bobby Bonilla, and Barry Bonds their first year in the majors. Those slow starts or less that stellar performances, did not seem to affect their careers negatively. The only way to really learn your trade is to play with the best as soon as possible. The only reason these younger Pirates are not on the opening day roster is simply greed and thinking that the Pirate fan base is just plain stupid. Tomorrow will begin the new season and I can hardly wait. I always enjoy a good laugh. If I am wrong and believe me I hope that I am, the crow will go down as smooth as can be.

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Sports: Opening Day, The Best Day Of The Year

That’s all you have to say is opening day, and everybody knows that means the first day of the regular season in baseball. This opening day, is even more significant, as baseball tries to have the first normal regular season in sports, since the pandemic began. It all begins on Thursday, and for me, this is the best day of the year. I know that pro football has supplanted baseball, as the most popular sport, in America, but there is only one sport, that is called our National Past Time. There is still nothing like it. It should be declared a national holiday, and kids should be off school, to either see the games in person or watch them on TV. This year many kids are off, thanks to the Easter break. This year baseball is doing it right, with all 30 teams starting on the same day. Even though around here, it will be far from a spring day, you know the good weather is about to begin. The days will be getting longer, and the wonderful days of summer are just around the corner. There will be that nice secure feeling, that you are about to settle in, to that long, and beautiful 162 game season, that was so missed last year. Yes, the 60 game season was better than nothing, but just barely. Sixty games of regular season baseball, well, it’s just not right. It seemed it was over in an instant, and baseball was very fortunate, that the best two teams made it through the expanded playoffs. This year with the exception of the 7 inning doubleheader, we are totally back to the way things use to be in baseball. The playoffs are the same this year, as they were before Covid, with 5 teams getting in, from each league. As of now, there will be no DH in the National League. Hopefully baseball will be able to maneuver through this long regular season, with no major Covid problems.

I have been following baseball, and the Pittsburgh Pirates since 1958. I will write about the 2021 version of the Pirates on Wednesday. With all those statistics, baseball helped hone my math skills, which in turn, helped me to get into veterinary school. I played the game right through the 60’s until I became obsessed with golf. Baseball to me, is still the best sport to watch, and follow, and by far the most interesting. The most unique thing about the game, is that there is no clock. In order to win a baseball game, a team has to accomplish getting the last out of the game. There have been many times, where teams have never been able to do that. There is no running the clock out in baseball. Baseball is by far the most historic game we have, beginning organized play in 1876, with the birth of the National League. The game has had its ups and downs, through out history, just as America has. It was the No. 1 game in America for almost 100 years, until football took over in the late 1960’s. It is the sport that has it all. Even though there is the team concept, you have that mano a mano confrontation between the batter and the pitcher. Baseball has more strategy in one game than football does in an entire season. Baseball is the only sport whose head man is called a manager. The game and the team needs to be managed, not coached. This week, we will feel as close to normal as we have been in over a year, when opening day arrives. Let’s hope that America’s Pastime, is just the beginning of those normal feelings, as we push past this pandemic.