Tag: Pittsburgh Pirates.

Posted on

Pirates Morning Report: Rotation Redemption

Final Score: Pirates 7 Nationals 4

Why The Pirates Won: They got off to a hot start scoring 4 runs in the 1st and 1 in the 2nd. Martin Perez gave the Pirates their first quality start of the season by going 6 and 2/3 innings giving up just 2 runs on 6 hits, 2 walks, while striking out 6. It was the best start of the year by a Pirate pitcher. The Pirates added to their lead in the 5th when Connor (Maybe This Was A Good Signing) Joe hit a 2-run homer. The bullpen had a little hiccup as Luis Otiz had some control issues giving up 2 runs, 2 hits, and 2 walks in 1 inning of work. Fortunately, Chapman and Bednar shut down the side by striking out 3 of the last 4 National batters of the game. The Pirates head home with a nice 6-1 record. Granted the competition has not been that tough, but you can still lose to bad teams over the season. The bottom line is the Pirates did not look overwhelming winning 6 out of the first 7 games, but who cares. The offense perked up again last night scoring 7 runs on 11 hits and 7 walks. They also had a season low of 7 strikeouts. Hayes had another error and is in a mini slump going 1 for 13 for the series. There is no question the competition will get tougher when the homestand starts today, with the Orioles and Tigers coming to town. If the Pirates go 3-2 in this homestand I will be happy, especially with Falter still scheduled to start on Saturday. I am sure the Pirates will be happy to be home today. Let’s just hope that the momentum continues.

The Key Moments Of The Game: After being shut down for the first time this season, the Pirates started the game quickly, setting the table early by loading the bases with no one out. Jack Suwinski hit a sacrifice fly. Connor Joe walked and Rowdy (I’m Going To Prove You Wrong Too) Tellez hit a ground ball 75 MPH but it was perfectly placed to get into centerfield scoring runs 2 and 3, sending Connor Joe to third base. Henry Davis hit another sacrifice fly and the Pirates scratched out 4 runs in the inning. Reynolds singled in the 5th run in the top of the second and before you could say BEER HERE, the Pirates had a 5-0 lead that was never really threatened. It got a little interesting in the 8th, but Chapman and Bednar quickly shut it down and the Pirates are 6-1.

Next Game: This afternoon, Orioles in Pittsburgh if it doesn’t get snowed out. Jared Jones will make his second start before a fired-up opening day crowd. This will be a good test for these early season Buccos as Baltimore is one of the best teams in the American League, with many people picking them to make the World Series this year. If they can win 3 out of these next 5 home games, then I would say job well done.

Posted on

Pirates Morning Report: You Knew They Weren’t Going To Win Them All.

Final Score: Pirates 3 Nationals 5

Why The Pirates Loss: Another mediocre pitching performance by a Pirate starter, this time by Mitch Keller, led to this defeat. In 5 and 1/3 innings of “work” he gave up 5 runs on 8 hits, walking 2, striking out 5, while throwing 84 pitches. Of the 8 hits 5 were doubles and another one a home run. Not a lot of cheap hits in the bunch. There was catcher interference that made one of the runs unearned, but all in all another forgettable performance by a Pirates starter. This time the Pirates bats could not overcome the rotation ineffectiveness. In fact, they were pretty silent striking out 13 times and getting only 4 hits. There were only 3 players in the starting lineup that got hits. Lots of collars were worn in this game for the Pirate offense. Their last hit was the home run by Jack Suwinski in the top of the 6th, and they were retired in order 4 times during the game. The bullpen did well again, giving up no runs on just 2 hits and striking out 3 in 2 and 2/3 innings. The offense was pretty punchless the last 3 innings and really never threatened to cut into the Nationals 2 run lead. It looks like 162-0 is now just a pipe dream.

Key Moments Of The Game: It was the ability of the Nationals to bounce right back every time the Pirates did do something on offense. The Pirates got 2 runs in the top of the 2nd and the Nationals came right back lighting up Mitch Keller to score 4 runs in the bottom of the 2nd. The Pirates got within one in the top of the 6th and the Nationals got that run right back in the bottom of the 6th. Each time, it allowed the Nationals to either get momentum or maintain momentum.

Next Game: This afternoon, Nationals in D.C. Martin Perez will make his 2nd start of the season and maybe he can give the Pirates their first quality start of the season. It would be nice to see them take the series today because even though they are headed home they are going to go up against one of the best teams in the American League in the Baltimore Orioles, with the Detroit Tigers to follow. Looks like Jared Jones will be starting the home opener, and he certainly had the most dynamic start so far this season, even though it did not count as a quality start. The other reason that a win today would be nice, is believe or not the Pirates have Barry (I am at) Falter penciled in to start on Saturday. I see no guarantee that the Pirates are going to score 10 runs that day, which is what they will need if he really starts that game. Come on management.

Posted on

Pirates Morning Report: Lumber Company Revisited

Final Score: Pirates 8 Nationals 4

Why The Pirates Won: The Pirate offense scored 8 runs yesterday to fall one run short of averaging 8 runs per game over the first 5 games. Not only does that explain why they won yesterday, but why they are 5-0. The offense could “only” manage to score 3 runs when 2 were out yesterday. All the starters got at least one hit except for Olivares. Michael Taylor surprisingly led the way with 3 hits, 2 runs scored and an RBI. Taylor, a lifetime .240 hitter, right now is going at a .471 clip. Andrew McCutchen may have found a new way to come out of a horrendous slump. His first two plate appearances he struck out and did not look good doing it. Then he took a 90 MPH slider right on the knee. It looked like he might even come out of the game. He hung in there, stayed in, and in his next 3 AB’s he went double, single, walk and drove in a run. Five players got 2 hits each. For the game the Pirates scored 8 runs on 15 hits and walked 6 times. It’s a good thing the offense is on fire because for the 5th consecutive game the Pirate starter could not get through the 6th inning. Marco Gonzales did not have a bad line for 5 innings giving up 1 run on 4hits, walking 2, while striking out 2. In the top of the 6th, he could not get an out and a 13 pitch at bat by Lane Thomas seemed to take it out of him. The bullpen did give up the tying runs in the bottom of the 7th when Roansy Contreras gave up a 2-run homer to knot the score 3-3. Then the new Lumber Company took over and scored 3 in the 8th and 2 in the 9th to win going away.

Key Moments Of The Game: The first came in the bottom of the 6th when Marco Gonzales seemed to run out of gas after throwing 77 pitches. He gave up a single and a walk to put runners on first and second with no one out. In came Roansy Contreras to make his 2024 debut. He got out of the jam getting a strike out, ground out, and strike out on 11 pitches. Unfortunately, he gave up the tying runs on a 2-run homer the next inning. The Pirates bounced right back in the top of the 8th to score 3 runs with 2 of those coming with 2 outs. The big hits were a double by Conner Joe, and 2 out hits by Hayes and McCutchen. The bullpen really did not have to face a high leverage situation again and it was 5 in a row for the new Lumber Company.

Next Game: Wednesday, the Nationals in D.C. The rotation starts over with Mitch Keller taking the hill for the 2nd time this season. Maybe he will start a new trend for the rotation, like contributing to a win. We all know that hitting is a sometime thing. The most runs scored in the modern era is 1067 by the 1931 New York Yankees in a 154-game season. That is averaging almost 7 runs per game. The all-time record is 1220 runs by the Boston Beaneaters. I did hear that they stunk in the field or was that they stunk up the field. They set the record in 1894. I have a feeling that both records are safe. If the Pirates kept up their current pace, they would score about 1260 runs. I think Michael Taylor has a better chance of winning the batting title.

Posted on

Pirates Morning Report: OK Rotation, When Are You Going To Contribute.

Final Score: Pirates 9 Marlins 7 in 10 innings.

Why The Pirates Won: Again, it was the 2 out lightening of the offense, this time scoring 8 of their 9 runs after 2 were out. This offense, which is on fire, scored 9 runs on 11 hits and 7 walks. The hits were spread out pretty evenly with only Ke’Bryan Hayes and Jared Triolo getting 2 hits. The only starter to not get a hit was Jason Delay, but he walked and laid down the beautiful bunt that scored the go ahead run in the top of the 8th. It was another offensive win for the Pirates who scored 31 runs in the 4-game sweep. Barry Falter pretty much stunk getting touched up for 5 runs in the 1st inning including a grand slam home run. In his nifty 4 innings of work he gave up 6 runs on 4 hits, including 2 home runs while walking 3. Hopefully this will be the last time we see Falter starting for the Pirates. They should move Luis Ortiz into the starting rotation by the end of the week. I did hear that the Marlins may be interested in acquiring Falter so they can have 5 awful left-hand pitchers in the rotation. The Pirates did announce that Marco Gonzales will start against the Nationals today so he must be ok. The only weak link in this Pirate team has been the starting rotation. Jared Jones had the best start, but it was still not considered a quality start. The rest of the rotation has been pretty much terrible. The bullpen has been lights out, but this cannot go on forever. The team needs a starter to go 6 or 7 innings. The Pirates are miraculously 4-0 when they could easily be 2-2 or even 1-3. The Marlins looked lousy in this series, but it will be interesting to see where these teams are at the All-Star break.

Key Moment Of Game: The Pirates trailed 6-4 going into the top of the 7th and got the first two runners on base. Then Suwinski flied out and Triolo struck out to bring up Rowdy (Please Let Me See A Right-Handed Pitcher) Tellez. He had struck out 3 straight times against left-handed pitching but finally got to bat against a right hander, Vladimir Gutierrez. He battled for 8 pitches working the count to 3 and 2, fouling off the last 3 pitches. On the 9th pitch he lifted a towering drive to centerfield for a 3-run homer to give the Pirates the lead 7-6. A rusty Bednar gave up a tying home run in the bottom of the 9th to send the game into extra innings. The Marlins completely botched up 2 bunts and walked in another run to ensure that the Pirates would sweep the series. Hunter Stratton pitched a solid bottom of the 10th, getting a nice low-ball strike to end the game and seal the win.

Next Game: This afternoon, the Nationals in D. C. Marco Gonzales will pitch for the Pirates. Why he did not pitch yesterday I do not know. Maybe they did not want him to make his Pirate debut with the typical goofy Sunday lineup. Hopefully this does not affect his confidence that they made it look like Falter was the 4th starter over him. Let us hope that Falter can lead Indianapolis to a championship.

Posted on

Pirates Morning Report: Making It Look Easy Despite Misplays.

Final Score: Pirates 7 Marlins 2

Why The Pirates Won: Well, the bullpen did well again. Other than that, I don’t know why the Pirates won. They made enough mistakes to lose this game, but the Marlins managed to not even make this game close. The starting pitcher for the Marlins A. J. Puke, I’m sorry, Puk pitched so bad, that he made his manager puke. In 2 plus innings he gave up 4 runs on 3 hits while walking 6 batters. The Pirates should have scored more runs, but poor base running did them in for the second game in a row. After 3 innings it was 4-0 but you thought the Pirates may have blown it by not taking advantage of all the walks. However, the Marlins perfected the technique for hitting into double plays by hitting into 4 of them. They would have hit into more, but some bad hops tried to save them. Nothing could save the Marlins in this game. The Pirates added single runs in the 6th, 7th, and 8th inning, by getting a few hits, a walk and a sacrifice fly. Ke’Bryan Hayes made 2 errors but again the Marlins could not take advantage. The Pirates got another mediocre start, this time from Martin Perez, who could only go 4 and 1/3 innings giving up 1 run, 6 hits, 3 walks, while throwing 86 pitches. Ryder Ryan went 1 and 2/3 innings giving up no runs and Josh Fleming went the final 3 giving up 1 run on 2 hits and walk. One final note and I don’t know how much this contributed to the win, but the Pirate pitchers got the low-ball strike and the Marlin pitchers do not. Maybe the home plate umpire has some relatives that work at Disney.

Key Moment Of The Game: It came in the bottom of the 5th with score 4 to 1 Pirates. The Marlins had 1st and 3rd with one out when Ryder Ryan came into the game. The Pirates had really let the Marlins off the hook in the 2nd and 3rd by scoring only 4 runs. A big hit here would have gotten the Marlins right back in the game. Ryan shut down the rally by striking out 2 batters on 14 hard fought pitches. The Pirates started adding to their lead one run at a time beginning in the 6th inning to win going away. All Pirate fans should give a big shout out to A. J. Puke, damn it I mean Puk.

Next Game: This Afternoon, the Marlins in Miami. Jared Jones makes his Pirate debut today as the Pirates try to make it 3 in a row over the Marlins. I am not sure if the Marlins really know the regular season has started yet. The Pirates are 2-0 simply because the Marlins have played worse. It had to be challenging to play worse than the Pirates did last night. But hey, we will take it. Hopefully Jones will be able to do something the first two starters could not, give us some innings.

Posted on

Pirates Morning Report: Maybe For The Marlins and The Pirates They Should Start The Runner AT Third.

Final Score: Pirates 6 Marlins 5 in 12 innings

Why The Pirates Won: A very strong performance by the bullpen triggered this win. In 6 and 1/3 innings the bullpen gave up only 1 hit, 2 walks, while striking out 4. Luis Ortiz and Jose Hernandez were particularly impressive in the extra innings holding the Marlins scoreless despite the fact they started each inning with the phantom runner on 2nd. The Pirates never even had to make a play at the plate during those 3 innings. Mitch Keller did not have his best stuff giving up all the runs in just 5 and 2/3rds innings, on 7 hits and 2 walks. The Pirate offense hit 3 home runs that accounted for 4 of the 6 runs. Oneil Cruz’s opposite field dinger in the 8th inning tied the game at 5. Jared Triolo was having a tough day at the plate until he got the game winning single in the top of the 12th. The most important thing the offense did was getting a very effective starting pitcher out of the game after 5 innings. The Marlins bullpen was not up to the task of protecting a 3-run lead. Despite the Pirates making an error that led to a run in the top of the 2nd, their defense was outstanding and helped snuff out numerous scoring opportunities the Marlin had, especially in extra innings. Some players had rough games at the plate as the Pirates struck out 17 times with McCutchen striking out 4 times and Cruz 3. All in all, it was a great opening day win for the mighty Bucco’s.

Key Moments Of The Game: There were many key moments in this game, not the least of which was the jam that Mitch Keller got out of in the bottom of the 2nd. The Marlins had posted 2 runs and had 2nd and 3rd with no one out. Keller bore down and got 2 weak pop outs and a fly ball to end the inning, keeping the score 2-0. The Pirates returned the favor in the top of the 6th by loading the bases with one out but failed to produce one run. At that point in the game, they were trailing 5-2, looking like they were headed for an opening day loss. In the top of the 7th the Pirates made things interesting by getting 2 runs on an Edward Olivares pinch hit home run and a McCutchen ground out which scored Michael Taylor from 3rd base. Then Oneil Cruz went deep in the top of 8th, and we were tied 5-5. The biggest play of the game came in the bottom of the 10th. The Marlins were able to move the runner over to third with one out. The Pirates intentionally walked the next batter. Jake Burger grounded into a 4-6-3 double play, only made possible by the great play by Conner (I know I didn’t like it when they signed him) Joe, when Oneil Cruz threw a low hard one way left of the bag. Joe dove to his right, caught the ball, and managed to stay on the bag. The inning was over, and Joe had saved the game. In the top of the 12th the Pirates finally scratched out a run to win the opening game of the season.

Next Game: Tonight, the Marlins in Miami. Martin Perez will start for the Pirates to see if he can keep the momentum going. This was a real nice gritty win for the Bucs. They made some first game mistakes but were able to overcome them, and pull out the victory in extra innings, thanks to a great performance by the bullpen. They are going to open the season oddly enough by facing 4 straight left-handed pitchers. The Pirates left-handed batters are going to get plenty of practice hitting left-handed pitching. One final off the field question. Are the Pirate announcers really into hair gel or did they just get out of the shower before they went on the air? Enquiring minds want to know. I can wait to see Bob Walk.

Posted on

Pirates Morning Report: Opening Day, Optimism Rampant

The Pirates open the 2024 baseball season tomorrow, visiting the Miami Marlins. There is much optimism for the coming season. This time last year it seemed like I was the only one that felt the Pirates might contend for a playoff spot. They got off to a hot start, but in the middle of that hot start Oneil Cruz suffered a season ending broken ankle. That essentially ended any hope that they would be a contender. This year many are writing that the Pirates will contend for a wild card and might even win the division. Certainly, the Pirates seem stronger this year in every phase of the game. What will determine how the 2024 season unfolds and how successful will the Pirates be? It goes without saying that the Pirates will need to avoid the devasting injury that befell Oneil Cruz last season. Assuming that the Pirates will remain relatively healthy, this is what must happen for the Pirates to make the playoffs or win the division.

I previously wrote that Ke’Bryan Hayes and Jared Triolo must come close to producing the offensive production that they showed the last 2 months of the 2023 season, and nothing has changed my mind. The Pirate management team showed they have a lot of faith in Triolo by making him the starting 2nd baseman. Last fall I thought Triolo would be on the team, but in the role of the super utility man playing 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and possibly shortstop. I also thought that the Pirates would keep both Nick Gonzales and Liover Peguero. Instead, they will both open the season in AAA. They did not show enough in spring training to warrant being kept on the team, once it was decided that Triolo would be the full-time 2nd baseman. Keeping Alika Williams was a surprise, but I imagine that that he will be sent down once Ji Hwan Bae is healthy. That says something about the Pirate offense, where management is comfortable playing a no-hit glove man once in a while. Speaking of Bae, in 16 plate appearances in spring training, he did walk 4 times, so there may be hope for him yet.

Bryan Reynolds must get closer to being the player he was in 2021. He has been in a steady decline since then. Looking at two areas, WAR and OPS+, beginning in 2021 his WAR has gone from 5.9 to 3.0 to 2.4 and his OPS+ has gone from 145 to 127 to 113. In order for this team to win the division Reynold must at least play between his 2021 and 2022 levels. In an earlier blog I mentioned that the Pirates would be fine if Reynolds even played at his 2023 level. Since that time, I have changed my mind especially if they want to win the division. Reynolds has not had a particularly great spring, slashing .196/261/476. I never put a lot of weight on springtime performance. He could be experimenting around a little with his approach and swing. I feel that Reynolds will bounce back because he just seems to be a solid skilled player. How much he bounces back will go a long way to determining how this Pirate season turns out. If he would continue his decline, then this may be the first Pirate problem of 2024. On the other hand, Jack Suwinski is headed in the right direction. Using the same formula, Suwinski has seen his WAR go from 1.2 in 2022 to 2.2 in 2023. His OPS+ went from 99 in 2022 to 115 in 2023. If he can continue this upward trend the Pirates will be able to take another step closer to the division title.

There is no question that once the Pirates acquired Michael Taylor and decided to play Triolo at 2nd base they were going to put their best defensive team on the field in this century. If Carlos Santana was going to be at first base, they might be putting the best defensive team in the league on the field in 2024. Even without Santana this will be a very strong defensive team at least on paper. Will they play to that potential in 2024? In my view it is a very likely occurrence. I have always gone with Baseball’s Reference’s Defensive Efficiency Rating as my main comparison stat when it comes to fielding. Last year the Pirates finished 18th in DER. I expect them to crack the top 5 this year if they are going to win the division.

Then there is the Pirate pitching staff. The Pirates are going to prove or disprove the theory that you cannot have enough pitching. They have 24 pitchers on the 40 man Roster and only 4 are 30 years old or older. The Pirates have 9 pitchers that could easily go into the starting rotation and by mid-season that number should grow to 11. Two mainstays of last year’s bullpen are going to start the season on the IL, Colin Holderman and Carmen Mlodzinski, and it looks like the bullpen will not miss a beat. Dauri Moreta is going to miss the entire season due to elbow surgery, but there is no talk of getting bullpen help. With the high number of arms that is on this squad, hopefully, they will find 13 that will be very good to excellent in run prevention. The Pirates should be better in every phase of the game, hitting, fielding, base running, and pitching. The question will be, will this be good enough and will the players perform to their expected levels.

Can this team win the division? As long as they can avoid the injury bug, I would say they have at least a 50-50 chance. Could the Pirates win the American League East or the National League West, not a chance in hell. Thankfully the Pirates are in the National League Central, where all the teams are in a state of transition. I think it will boil down to how does the core of the Pirates perform, Jack Suwinski, Bryan Reynolds, Oneil Cruz, Ke’Bryan Hayes, Jared Triolo, Henry Davis, and the starting pitcher that day. They will either be the Magnificent 7 or the 7 Little Foys. It should be one of the most interesting and exciting seasons that Pittsburgh has seen in about 10 years, starting tomorrow. The Pirates Morning Report will start on the following day with a concise, no nonsense look, (well maybe a little nonsense, I just can’t help myself) at why the Pirates won or lost each game. I can hardly wait, but I must.

Posted on

Pirates Morning Report: The Boredom Goes On.

We are getting closer to opening day and Pirates are basically standing pat with this team. I am not that upset with the lack of real moves, but it would have been nice to see them make a real upgrade somewhere. I have an idea when it comes to writing about the Pirates. Instead of writing about trade rumors, title the articles wishful thinking trades. There is plenty of time for a trade and a good number of free agents are still available. For now, we must assume that the current roster is what the Pirates are going to put on the field. There are some interesting facts about the position players on this team and I will write about what this team must do to make the playoffs. The pitching is deep but already David Bednar is dealing with an injury that is probably going to jeopardize him being on the opening day roster. Everything discussed today will be mostly about position players.

Here is an interesting fact about this team. During the last 3 seasons, there are very few players on this team that have played more than 130 games in a season or catchers that have played 120 games. This has been due to injuries or being sent down to the minors. There are some surprising names on the list. Ke’Bryan Hayes has done it just once. Grandel has not done it since 2019, although he came close last year at 118. Rowdy Tellez has done it once. Olivares has never done it. Henry Davis has not done it at either the minor or major league level. McCutchen has been durable over his career but last year was the fewest games he has played since 2019. You have to wonder how many of these players are going to continue to be fragile. Right now, the Pirates have 17 players that they acquired by free agency or played a significant role on last year’s team. There are only 13 spots on the roster for position players. The Pirates will have some tough choices to make or will they be saved by the mysterious injury and the 25-day rehab assignment. What has to happen for this team to make the playoffs.

They have to avoid the catastrophic injury. Speaking of which, Oneil Cruz will need to have the big bounce back season that everyone is hoping for. To put it in WAR terms, he needs to have a 5-6 win season. It would be nice to see Bryan Reynolds get to that 4-6 WAR season again. He has had a slight decline every year over the last 3 seasons. I do not look at this as an essential part of the picture, but it would be a nice bonus. As long as we at least get the 2023 version of Reynolds it will benefit this team. One of the biggest keys to this season will be can Hayes and Jared Triolo continue the hitting like they did after the All Star break last year. Both of these players are elite glove men. After the All Star break, they both mashed. Hayes slashed .299/335/539, and Triolo slashed .298/.394/411. If they can continue to put up those numbers during the season, then this team could be an offensive juggernaut. Triolo did this while being a super utility player, playing three infield positions and being a plus defender at all 3. If he can hit like he did after the All Star break, I would love to see him settle in at 2b. That brings us to Liover Peguero and Nick Gonzales. Both were negative WAR players last year. Granted the sample size was not the largest, especially for Gonzales, but one of these players needs to step up and show that he can hit Major League pitching. The so-called fragile players need to have a healthy season, at least 80% of them. If Rowdy Tellez can approach his 2022 season that would be a plus barely. In 6 seasons he has never had a WAR 1 or over. This has to be close to wishful thinking that he will have a career year. Pitching looks like the Pirates strength, but we all know how that can go speaking of fragile. By mid-season the Pirates will have 15 pitchers that can be put into the 5-man rotation. The Pirates should be a team that considers the 6-man rotation. The battle for a spot in the starting rotation should be one of the most interesting things of spring training. The bullpen looks really solid with really no weak links.

I was very optimistic about this team last year and thought they would contend for a playoff spot. Then Oneil Cruz broke his leg and essentially the season was over. Over this winter Endy Rodriguez went down with a season ending injury. His loss is not as big as Cruz’s was, but it is still significant. This teams pitching is so deep that you would think that they have to contend for a playoff spot this year. On the other hand, I have used the phrase wishful thinking twice in this article. One thing for sure is that April, no matter what the Pirates do, will be a bad month. If the Pirates get off to a hot start, the media will say they did that last year and look what happened. If they get off to a bad start, the consensuses will be that they should have made more moves in the offseason, and they are still the same old mediocre or worse Pirates with a tightwad owner. Probably the best thing for them to do is to tread water for those first 30 games right around .500. Last year they were 20-10 at the 30-game mark. I would not mind seeing that again and be damned what anybody thinks. Bring on opening day, I can’t wait to start following.

Posted on

Pirates Morning Report: 2024 Off Season ZZzzzzzzz, Sorry To Wake You Up

To say that the Pirate off season so far has been disappointing would be an understatement. The off season is far from over and things could change, but the Pirates have done almost nothing to improve their team. The re-signing of Connor Joe I took to be a bad sign that the Pirates were not really serious about 2024. It is amazing to me how much of a positive spin that some of the media have put on the Pirate off season so far. My favorite article was titled, A Look into the Bucs’ Talented New Trio. The article was referring to Rowdy Tellez, Billy McKinney, and Edward Olivares. These individuals may have some talent, but I am not too sure that it is playing baseball. The Pirates did a little better in acquiring starting pitching, but not much. For a team that was talking about contending for a divisions title when the season was barely over, they have not shown much of a propensity for trying to obtain talent to accomplish that goal. Let’s look at what they have done so far, and I know this is hard, but try and stay awake. We are going to look at the 6 main players the Pirates have acquired during the off season. Ali Sanchez looked like he was obtained in case the Pirates traded a catcher, may have a bigger role, now that Endy Rodriguez is out for the year. We will do the players in alphabetical order because they are all pretty much mediocre, with none having much of a chance of contributing to a division title. That’s not to say that there is no hope but if history is any indication, then it will be very surprising if any of these players have a WAR of 2 or over, which means they are a major league starter.

Marcos Gonzales left-handed pitcher going into his age 32 season and the last two seasons have not been that great for Marcos. In 2022 he became a below average pitcher with an ERA+ of 90 for the first time in 5 seasons. In 2023 due to some forearm issues had to have for lack of a better description a rare surgery to decompress a nerve. After the Garcia experience of last year, the Pirates thought, sure why not, let’s get him. As in most cases with such a situation, all sides are optimistic that he will be able to pitch a complete and successful season. If he is not on the IL opening day I will be surprised.

Billy McKinney, outfielder AND first baseman going into his age 29 season and for all intent and purposes has played the equivalent of 2 major league seasons. He has a lifetime OBP of 284 and OPS+ of 82, which means he is about 20% worse than the league average hitter. Last year with the Yankees he did manage an OPS+ of 98 and got on base at a 320 clip. He is at least an average fielder which as you will see is good compared to some. There is nothing in this guys DNA to suggest that he is ready for some break out season in 2024.

Edward Olivares, outfielder heading into his age 28 season. In the last 2 years he has 559 plate appearances which is about one season of playing regularly. Just to compare, last year Byan Reynolds had 640 plate appearances with an OPS+ of 113. Olivares over that 2-year period had an OPS+ of 110, close to Bryan Reynolds, so what’s the catch. That’s the key word catch. Olivares is a terrible fielder. In 4 seasons his Defensive Runs Saved is -21. When the Pirates first signed him, I thought that might mean they were not going to sign McCutchen because here was their new DH. Seeing him in right field will be quite the adventure.

Martin Perez, left-handed pitcher going into his age 33 season. The good news about Perez is that he is under 40 and has bullpen experience. He has been at or an above average league pitcher the last 4 seasons. He is the best of this group of six players but that’s not saying much. He can definitely help this rotation and be an asset to the team. His signing has not been made official, so there is always that.

Ali Sanchez, catcher heading into his age 27 season. Sanchez has practically no Major League experience having only 14 plate appearances. He has spent 10 seasons in the minor leagues. He says his favorite movie is Bull Durham. In his four seasons at AAA he doesn’t have too bad of numbers with a batting average of .275 while slugging .402. He should get an opportunity to show something this year with Endy out for the season.

Last but certainly not least, we have good old Rowdy Tellez or should we say David Vogelbach, the Turtle part 2. Both he and Vogelbach are listed at 270 pounds. Tellez has 4 inches of height on Vogelbach to spread those 270 pounds around a little better. He is coming off an injury plaque 2023 and I have not seen or read where he is trying to get into better shape. He had the big year in 2022 with 35 home runs having 599 plate appearances. Of the free agent first basemen out there, he is definitely at the bottom of the barrel. His defense is below average and considering we had one of the best fielding 1st baseman last year in Carlos Santana, this certainly can’t be considered an upgrade.

Well, are you still awake? The Pirates did re-sign Andrew McCutchen and if he can stay healthy may see some time in the field. Right now, the Pirates do not have anybody to competently play right field, unless they use McCutchen. Obviously, the off season is not over. There is plenty of time for moves, trades, and signings to be made. For the present, the Pirates cannot be taken seriously as a franchise that is trying to win a division title in 2024.

Posted on

Pirates Morning Report: What’s Next

The playoffs are in full swing, so we are not officially into the off season quite yet, but it is not too early to speculate and dream. The Pirates usually spend the off season signing low to mid-level free agents to fill in some gaps until prospects come up. The regular season was barely put to bed, when contending for the playoffs was bandied about. Since it is so early, let’s look at two things that are very unlikely to happen. The Pirates make no moves, or they make a big splash free agent signing. What would the 2024 Pirates look like if they went with just the players they have now.

As far as the position players are concerned, which normally number 13, there would be 7 players that would be locks to be on the team next year. Ke’Bryan Hayes, Bryan Reynolds, Jack Suwinski, Oneil Cruz, Henry Davis, Endy Rodriguez, and Jared Triolo. Triolo’s strong finish, where he showed he might have some power potential, and his solid play at first base, easily puts him on this team at the moment. Triolo ended the season with an OPS+ of 116, higher than any other Pirate regular. That leaves 6 spots for the remaining players on the 40-man roster. They are Jason Delay, Ji Hwan Bae, Vinny Capra, Nick Gonzales, Tucupita Marcano, Liover Peguero, Alphonso Rivas, Alika Williams, Miguel Andujar, Connor Joe, Josh Palacios, Canaan Smith-Njigba, and last but certainly not least Andrew McCutchen. Vinny Capra and Alika Williams can be eliminated for obvious reasons which puts us down to 11 players. If the Pirates sign McCutchen, which is not a given, he will be on the team. I always felt they should have signed McCutchen beginning in 2021. I will admit I’m not too sure if it is the best move now, even if he comes on the cheap. I know all the positives of signing him, but they are all on the subjective side. I don’t know how much that is going to win you ball games. If they do sign him to a 1-year deal, I would not be upset or critical. I could say the same thing if they do not sign him. For the sake of argument, I will assume they sign him, and he takes the 8th spot on the roster. Next, we have the trio Gonzales, Marcano, and Peguero. All can play 2nd base, Marcano is the only glove man and the other 2 have some defensive issues but supposedly are better hitters. So far, Peguero and Gonzales have not shown they are major league hitters yet. Gonzales has had a smaller sample size, but it is underwhelming so far. Marcano has shown for sure he cannot hit big league pitching. All three will not be on the roster. I do not know if even 2 should be on the roster, but I am going with Peguero and Gonzales because of more potential and the Pirates need bats. Marcano is a good glove man, but he is not elite. That leaves 3 spots. I do not see Alphonso Rivas or Connor Joe being on this team next year. They are league average hitters, but their defense leaves a lot to be desired. Connor Joe is over 30 and Rivas is going on 28 these are not players that are going to put you in the playoffs. That leaves Jason Delay, Ji Hwan Bae, Miguel Andujar, Josh Palacios, Canaan Smith-Njigba, for the final 3 spots. During the final game of the season, the Pirate broadcast booth said that the Pirates are going to let Henry Davis catch in 2024. Even if this is true, I do not think this eliminates Jason Delay from the team. This can increase the flexibility of the Pirate lineup with 3 potential catchers. I am going to put him on the team. The final two spots go to Ji Hwan Bae and Miguel Andujar. Bae because of his potential. If he can walk like he did in AAA, then he will be an asset. I do not care if he ever bunts. He has got to be able to do the process that he incorporated in AAA to get more walks. If he can’t do this then back to the minors he goes. Even though I picked Andujar, I feel it is a tossup on all 3 players. One of the biggest disappointments in 2023 was Smith-Njigba. He did get hot at the end of 2023 in AAA, but will that ever happen at the next level. He is heading into his age 25 season, so you have to figure it is now or never in 2024. Then there is the curious case of Josh Palacios. Here are the cold hard facts on Palacious. He is heading into his age 29 season. In 264 plate appearances his slash line reads, .239/.279/.413, for an OPS+ of 86. His WAR was -0.2. He is a below average fielder in every defensive metric. However, he always seemed to find himself in big situations and he came through many times to get a lot of big hits. Even though I favored Andujar I am still not sure you can put much stock in his good September. What all this is telling you is that the Pirates need an outfielder.

What better way to fill that need than to make the splash signing of Cory Bellinger. Bellinger had the very nice bounce back year with the Cubs having an OPS+ of 133, way above what any Pirate did this year. Very solid indeed, but he did not approach his MVP season. There is no question he will be a highly sought after free agent, but I do not think he will bring one of those mega deals. I think he is a 200-million-dollar man but not a 300-million-dollar man. The Pirates could certainly pull this off if they wanted to. Not a likely happening but if you’re not going to dream now, you will never have a chance.

The other interesting thing about 2024 will be what will the Pirates do with Oneil Cruz. They have a plethora of middle infielders, so would they consider making him the right fielder, much like the Padres did with Fernando Tatis. Would they move him to 1st base? No matter what, the major factor is that Cruz needs to make a full recovery from his broken leg/ankle.

On the pitching side of the ledger what would the starting rotation and the bullpen look like in 2024 if the Pirates made no moves. The rotation would set up like this. Mitch Keller, Max Kranick, Luis Ortiz, Quinn Priester, and Johann Oviedo. If Roansy Contreras can regain his old form, then he might get back into the rotation. J. T. Brubaker should be ready to pitch sometime in June. First round pick Paul Skenes seems pretty determined to make the club right from spring training. Despite his determination that would be shocking. However, it is not unfathomable that he may be pitching for the Pirates in June. The rotation does not look as bleak as you might have thought, and the bullpen is very solid. Just to list the 8 guys I would put in the bullpen, they are David Bednar, Colin Holderman, Andre Jackson, Carmen Mlodzinski, Dauri Moreta, Kyle Nicolas and rounding out with the left handers Ryan Borucki and Bailey Falter. My pick of Nicolas may surprise some but after that horrible debut he pitched 5 innings gave up 1 run, 4 hits, striking out 7 and his stuff looked awesome. Cody Bolton and Hunter Stratton are good options if any of the above falter or get injured. Will the previous mentioned Jarlin Garcia ever pitch again? Who knows? Only the Shelton knows. There are some big-time pitchers that are becoming free agents, but I do not think the Pirates will try to sign any of them. As much as I would like to see the Pirates sign Bellinger, I am not expecting that either.

Could this be the first off season where the Pirates sign a free agent that will get the fans excited. Like every off season, there will be plenty of names out there, both position players and pitchers. Would the Pirates make a trade to upgrade the team. Right now, they do have this overflow of middle infielders, especially if they decide to leave Cruz at shortstop. I do not see this happening, but it opens up all kinds of possibilities to improve the team. Looking at the team right now, I think there are three things that need to happen if the Pirates are going to jump to 85 to 92 wins which usually gets you in the playoffs. This year it took 84 in the National League and 89 in the American League. Ji Hwan Bae needs to become the AAA hitter he is, in the Major Leagues. If he could post an on base percentage of .360 or better the Pirates would have a great 1-2 punch at the top of the order with him and McCutchen, if he is signed. Oneil Cruz needs to put in a full season and have a 4 WAR year. The pitching has to make a comeback. Despite all the injuries the Pirates have an amazing number of young arms. Even more than what we named earlier. There could be a pitcher in AA and AAA that could be the big surprise in 2024. The offseason is always a fluid situation and right now we have no idea what kind of moves the Pirates will or won’t do. No matter what they do, it will still be one of the most interesting off seasons the Pirates have had in a long long time.