The Pirates stand at 14 wins and 18 losses. Talk about a tale of two halves. First 16 games 11-5, the last 16 games 3-13. I will take a look at the offense, defense and pitching. With all the stats and analytics today, it still boils down to three things when it comes to batting and pitching. Batting you have to get on base, score runs and then compare how you are doing with the rest of the league. The comparison stat is OPS+ with 100 being league average. This stat compares a batter with the rest of league based on the ballpark, competition and a variety of other factors. With pitching you have to be good at what you can control, home runs, walks and strikeouts. This is Fielding Independent Pitching known as FIP. As a pitcher you have to prevent runs and the comparison stat here is ERA+, again with 100 being league average. I always use Baseball References Defensive Efficiency to evaluate how a team is fielding. This takes in all aspects of fielding not just errors. Let us see how the Pirates shake out.
The Hitting: They are 15th in on base percentage, 21st in runs scored and 24th in OPS+. Quite frankly I thought they would be worse. All the runs they scored in the beginning of the season must have helped them score more runs than 9 other teams in baseball. These stats show that they are not that bad about getting on base but have not been able to take advantage. Right now, the Pirates have 5 players hitting above league average. A very small sample size Joey Bart (154), Connor Joe (140), the surprising Alika Williams (120) Bryan Reynold (115) and Ke’Bryan Hayes (101). On the opposite side of the spectrum, we have Henry Davis (44) Jack Suwinski (55), Jared Triolo and Rowdy Tellez each at 61. This means they are performing 39 to 56% below the major league average hitter. In my view all of these players are disappointing if not surprising. The biggest surprise here is Triolo. I thought he would have to perform like he did the last 2 months of the season for the Pirates to have success and he has not come close. As a whole the team has lacked power which was supposed to be a plus. There are only 4 teams that have hit less home runs than the Pirates. Ke’Bryan Hayes has been one of the disappointments here. The last 2 months of the season he slugged .501. So far this year it’s .345.
Pitching: The Pirate staff is 17th in FIP, 15th in runs allowed and 12th in ERA+. This time I thought the Pirates might be better. The rotation did get off to a slow start and the hitting bailed them out in the first 10 games or so. The Pirates are right in the middle of the pack with these key pitching stats. This has not been good enough to overcome the horrible hitting over the last 2 weeks. The Pirates have 3 starters that are above average, Martin Perez (144), Jared Jones (126), and Quinn Priester (122). Out of the bullpen, we have small sample size Colin Holderman (317), Josh Fleming (184), Hunter Stratton (136), Luis Ortiz (131), and Roansy Contreras (100). What is amazing that 2 pitchers with ERA+ well above 100 are in the minors, Ryder Ryan and Jose Hernandez. Missing from the list is Mitch Keller, Aroldis Chapman and David Bednar. Despite all the hype about Mitch Keller being the Pirate ace and what a great year he had last year, the truth is 2022 and 2023 were the same. His ERA+ was 104 for both years. This computes to being 4% better than the average starter in baseball. Nice, but not someone you want to pitch in game one of a playoff series. If this team is going to do anything Bednar and Chapman better get their act together even if they start to hit again.
Fielding: The Pirates are 12th in Defensive Efficiency. I thought they would do better, but this is still one of their highest positions. Part of the reason I don’t think they are better is because they have not played Michael Taylor enough. I know this team needs offense, but this is a premier centerfielder, and you need to play him, bat him 9th and take your lumps. He is not really doing that bad at the plate when you compare him to Tellez, Davis and Suwinski and they are either terrible or below average fielders. This is one aspect of the Pirates that needs to get better even though it is tied for the highest ranking of any phase of Pirate baseball at the moment.
What’s Next: I was going to speculate on what some of moves the Pirates might make. Trying to predict what this management team might or might not do is just about impossible. First of all, their bizarre batting orders and line ups are enough to drive you crazy. That could be an entire blog but let me give a couple of examples. When Andrew McCutchen is put in the lineup he should bat in one spot and one spot only, lead off. HE IS NOT A CLEAN UP HITTER. The opening game against the Giants they started Oneil Cruz against a left hander. The next night against a fire balling right hander he is on the bench. WHAT THE HELL IS THAT? Like everybody else I will just wait until later today to see if the Pirates are going to make any personnel changes. Looking ahead there is good news and there is bad news. The bad news is the Cubs, Brewers, and Reds are looking like they are going to make this a 3 team dog fight. That could be the good news too, if they keep knocking each other off. All three, unlike the Pirates, are looking like very good baseball teams. The good news is the Pirates cannot be this offensively inept all season or can they? Can Hayes get his power back? Can the whole team get their power back? Will Triolo start to hit? Will they start to get more both offensively and defensively out of the catcher’s spot. Will management start playing players that are performing and not players who are projected to perform? Will the bullpen mainstays Bednar and Chapman turn it around? Finally, what if any changes are going to come today? Only The Shelton knows. All the preceding questions need to be answered with a yes if this team is going to contend.