Pirate Morning Report: Phillies, Yankees, Cubs, In Big Trouble.

All the division series are 2 games in. Only one series is tied at a game apiece: the Tigers and the Mariners. The Yankees, Phillies, and Cubs are down 2 games to none. The team in the biggest trouble is the Phillies. They lost both games at home. I am a big believer in team psychology. The Phillies blew the NLCS in 2023. They had a 3 games to 2 lead over the Diamondbacks heading back to Philadelphia. In the last game in Philly, the Phillies had won 10-0. The Diamondbacks shocked the baseball world by taking the last 2 games to go to the World Series. It is like a golfer who blows a big lead in a major tournament. Sometimes he never really recovers from it. Essentially, the Phillies are like that golfer. Two years later, they are practically the same team they were in 2023. They are going up against the big bad Dodgers this time. The numbers for the first two games of this series and the last 2 games of the NLCS are eerily very similar for both the team and individuals. In the first two games against the Dodgers, the Phillies scored 6 runs on 13 hits. They hit no home runs. This from a team that is 9th in home runs, 5th in slugging, and 4th in OPS with .759. That is the OPS average for the team. The Pirates had one player with an OPS over .759, Spencer Horwitz. But keep that hitting coach. I digress. Just can’t help myself when it comes to those Pirates. In the 2023 NLCS, the Phillies scored just 3 runs on 11 hits in the last 2 games. They hit just one home run. They have 8 players that played significant roles in all four games. Kyle Schwarber was 1 for 5 in 23 and 0 for 7 in 25. Trea Turner was 0 for 8 in 23 and 1 for 7 in 25. Bryce Harper was 0 for 7 in 23 and 1 for 7 in 25. J.T. Realmuto was 2 for 8 in 23 and 2 for 8 in 25. Alex Bohm, Nick Castellanos, Brandon Marsh, and Bryson Stott all played in both series. Only Brandon Marsh had one series where he did significantly better. In 23 he went 3 for 7 and in 25 1 for 5. Both years, the Phillies played over .600 at home. I don’t think the Phillies will make the comeback, but going to Los Angeles can’t hurt.

The Blue Jays and the Brewers are on the verge of getting their playoff failures off their backs. That is the key word, verge. I think it is more important for the Blue Jays and the Brewers to win Game 3 than it is for either the Tigers or the Mariners to win. The reason I think that is just how convincing the wins were for both teams. The Brewers outscored the Cubs 16 to 6, and the Blue Jays outscored the Yankees 23 to 8. The Yankees and the Cubs are going to have to find a way to stop the high-flying offenses of both teams. If somehow they can win Game 3, they still might make a series of this yet. My guess is both series will be sweeps. The Tigers and Mariners have played two low-scoring exciting games, with each team winning 3-2. The Tigers won Game 1 in extra innings. The Mariners have to feel pretty good because they won a game that Tarik Skubal started. I still look at this series as a toss-up. Whoever can find their offense first should take the series. I still like the Mariners’ chances. Whatever happens, these playoffs have not disappointed so far. I admit it would be nice to see the Phillies make a special comeback and force Game 5. They by far have the toughest uphill climb.

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