Pirate Morning Report: One Game Wonders

Final Score: Pirates 1 Mets 11

Why the Pirates Lost: After blowing out the Mets on Saturday, the Pirates reverted back to their old ways to lose their sixth series in a row. Jared Jones had a horrible performance, going only 3 plus innings and getting charged with 8 runs. He gave up 6 hits, walked 3, and hit 2 batters. The Mets unloaded on the Pirates for 11 runs on 15 hits and received 7 walks. The Pirate offense scored 1 run on 4 hits. For the entire game, they had one man in scoring position. The last 6 in the batting order went 0 for 19 with 11 strikeouts. Esmerlyn Valdez struck out 4 times in a row. Don Kelly managed poorly again. Jones had loaded the bases on a hit batsman and 2 walks. The fact that he was allowed to walk two was mistake number one. Then, with the bases loaded and the score 5-1, he brought in Mr. Low Leverage Evan Sisk. Of course, he gave up a bases-clearing double. He wound up giving up another run to make the score 9-1, and the game was over. He wound up bringing in most of his high leverage relievers anyway, after the game turned into a blowout. Why did he not bring one of them in when it was still a game. I guess Kelly thought the game was already over when it was just 5-1. Maybe he was right.

Key Moment Of The Game: From the outset, Jared Jones did not look good. Unlike Brewers manager Pat Murphy, the Pirates elected to go with Jones until the game just about got out of hand. Then they brought in a reliever who does not have high-leverage experience, and the game was history. The Pirates are barely out of last place and find themselves 5.5 games out of a wild card spot. More importantly, there are four other teams that are between them and the wild card. The Phillies and Diamondbacks are holding down the last two spots with the same record. If they play one game under .500 the rest of the way, the Pirates will need to have a record of 26 and 16 to just tie them. Baseball Reference gives them a 3.9% chance of making the playoffs. I think that is optimistic.

Next Game: Tuesday night, Marlins in Miami. The Pirates are 2.5 games behind the Marlins who are trying to survive a 12 game losing streak. They have been 8-5 since the streak. Needless to say, the Pirates need nothing short of a sweep to improve their pathetic odds of making the playoffs. Even a series win on the road will not be good enough. After this they come home to face the Red Sox and the Tigers. Winning 8 of the next 9 games is also almost a must, because they go on a brutal 9 game road trip facing the Dodgers, Padres and Cardinals. You can see now why I think 3.9% is optimistic. Stay tuned.

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