Tomorrow night the Tampa Bay Rays will face off against the Milwaukee Brewers to open the World Series. This should be one of the more entertaining Series in recent years. Both teams play solid baseball and keep pressure on the opposing club when they get runners on base. On paper the Brewers seemed to have the solid edge. I looked at all 9 position players, the starting pitchers, the relief pitchers, runs scored per game, runs scored against per game and defensive efficiency, for a total of 15 categories. The Brewers had the better player or the better stat in 11 out of 15 and some by wide margins. They were second in runs per game; the Rays were 12. They have the 4th ranked bullpen; the Rays 17th. Evaluating the position players the Brewers have the better players in 6 out of the 9 positions. The Rays are the best defensive club in baseball, but the Brewers are not all that shabby finishing 6th. So, why do I think the Rays are going to win the Series.
This is going to seem strange, but even though they swept the Dodgers, the Brewers are going to have to play better, if they expect to beat the Rays. The Brewers between walks and some defensive lapses gifted the Dodgers about 6 to 8 runs during the series. The Dodgers could have scored more but simply did not take full advantage of the Brewers walks and miscues. If the Brewers do the same against the Rays, they won’t be so lucky this time. The evaluation of these teams is based on the entire regular season and is not taking into consideration any recent bias. Jacob Misiorowski has not been very “Mis” like during these playoffs. He made two starts and pitched a total of 8 and 1/3 innings. His ERA is 3.24 for the playoffs compared to 1.80 for the regular season. He needs to go deeper into games during this World Series if the Brewers are going to win. I like the top of the rotation for Rays better than the Brewers. Drew Rasmussen has pitched in 3 games going 21 innings with an ERA of 1.29. The emergence of Freddy Peralta has a solid 1A makes the Rays more formidable. He has pitched 4 games, one of those a high leverage relief situation. He has gone 16 and 2/3 innings with an ERA of 1.08. The Rays were the number one defensive team in baseball. They have the number one outfield defensively by a wide margin. In the playoffs they seemed to have taken this superior defense up to another level. If the Rays win the Series, they will have shown just how important defense is to win championships. Then there is the long layoff for the Brewers. The good news is, that it is giving that great bullpen a well needed rest. How will it affect the hitters will be one of the keys to the series. I expect this series to be a low scoring hard fought affair. Both teams are fundamentally sound. I think it will go 7 games. I won’t be shocked if the Brewers win the series of course. That bullpen may carry them to the promise land. I still like the Rays defense carrying them to the promise land instead. It all starts tomorrow night. Stay tuned.
