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Pirates Morning Report: What An Opening Day

Final Score: Pirates 4, Marlins 5

Why The Pirates Lost: The Pirates did not shine defensively, they only got 4 hits, Paul Skenes only pitched 5 and 1/3 innings, and the bullpen imploded. The Pirates were 1 for 9 with runners in scoring position. They left 9 men on base. They struck out 11 times, with 7 of them being called 3rd strikes. They did not take advantage of 7 walks. The Pirate pitchers weren’t much better walking 7, although one was intentional. Skenes walked the last 2 batters he faced. The bullpen did implode, but it was not helped by the defense. Colin Holderman ran into some really bad luck not getting a called 3rd strike that would have ended the inning. In the bottom of the 9th, Oneil Cruz misplayed a line drive into a triple. He made a bad decision in the bottom of the 8th. He threw home, allowing a runner to get into scoring position. The runner scored on a game-tying single. It was not a good opening day for Cruz, topping in off by looking bad at the plate.

Key Moments Of The Game: Colin Holderman took over in the bottom of the 8th with the Pirates leading 4-2. He committed the cardinal sin by walking the first batter. It seemed that Holderman would escape his own mess. He got the next two batters out. A runner moved to second on the first out. Then, on a 1-2 count, Otto Lopez looped one into centerfield to score the 3rd run. Cruz made an ill-advised throw to home, and Lopez went to second base. The next batter, Dane Myers, took a 98 MPH fastball high and outside, well within the strike zone on a 1-2 count. The umpire called it a ball. The next pitch, Myers singled to centerfield to tie the score. Neither ball was hit over 86 MPH. The bottom of the ninth was another defensive disaster. The Marlins walked it off on David Bednar without making an out.

Next Game: Tonight, Marlins in Miami. The Pirates did not have a lot of luck going for them yesterday. For the last two years, they have won on opening day. Maybe this will be a good omen that they didn’t. The Marlins sure didn’t beat them; the Pirates gave it away. Their weaknesses were exposed in the very first game of the year: shaky defense and a weak bullpen. Tonight, Mitch Keller will go for the Pirates, facing Connor Gillispie. Gillispie has thrown only 8 innings in the Major Leagues. The Pirates will have to do better tonight. Can they get more than 4 hits. Let’s hope for win No. 1 tonight.

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Pirates Morning Report: Today Begins The Journey

Today just has to be every baseball fan’s favorite day, Opening Day. The Pirates open 2025 just as they did in 2024 with a 4-game series in Miami. The Marlins had made the playoffs in 2023, and when the Pirates swept the 4-game series, I was pleasantly surprised. Little did we know that the Marlins would become one of the worst teams in the National League. They lost 100 games. This year, there are some who are expecting the Pirates to sweep the Marlins again. I am not one of them. As I have written before, this is the most pessimistic I have gone into a season for a long time. I will admit this Opening Day roster is not giving me a bad vibe. It’s better than I thought it would be. Except for Nick Yorke, the Pirates kept who I thought they would for the Opening Day roster. The Pirates did not do as good a job when it came to selecting pitchers. They sent 4 solid young arms down to AAA: two starters and two relievers. With the Jared Jones injury, the starting rotation reads Skenes and pray for 4 days of rain. I do not think all is lost for the Pirates, and a contending season is still a possibility. So, why all the pessimism?

Even before the Jared Jones injury, I thought the Pirate rotation was being overrated. There is no question that Paul Skenes is one of the best pitchers in the game. He never had a truly bad start last year, and he may not have one this year. The rest of the pitchers are just average starters, with some a little below. Mitch Keller may break out this year, but there is no sign that he will. Andrew Heaney has a lifetime OPS+ of 94, and last year it was 92. Bailey Falter had an ERA+ of 95. This means that both of these pitchers are slightly below league average. That is not bad, by the way. The problem here is they are pitching on a very poor offensive team. Can three pitchers who are league average or slightly below manage to win? They are most likely going to be in low-scoring games. The Pirates are interesting offensively. Several players had some very good runs, even with other teams. However, they have not been able to recapture that performance. We all know who these players are. It will boil down to whether you think they could get back to their top performance. Obviously, my feeling is no. Even though I feel that way, it could happen. That leaves us with the bullpen and defense, both of which were way below average last year. One of the few moves the Pirates made in the offseason was to hire Brent Strom as assistant pitching coach. He succeeded greatly with the Astros. He also saw early success with the Diamondbacks. He helped their staff to the 2023 World Series. Things went sour for him and the Diamondbacks’ pitchers in 2024, and they let Strom go. Hopefully, he may have a real positive effect on the pitchers. The same thing could be said of new hitting coach Matt Hague. Both coaches may be the wild card for the Pirates.

That brings us to manager Derek (The Shadow Knows) Shelton. He is the biggest reason to feel that this season has the potential for disaster. I have given him the benefit of the doubt every season. What is mind-blowing about Shelton is his rise through the ranks with two of the better organizations in baseball. These are the Tampa Bay Rays and the Minnesota Twins. For whatever reason, he seems to have learned nothing. Maybe he is the proof of the Peter principle. The Peter principle is a concept in management developed by Laurence P. Peter. It observes that people in a hierarchy rise to “a level of respective incompetence.” Employees are promoted based on their success in previous jobs. Eventually, they reach a level at which they are no longer competent. Skills in one job do not necessarily translate to another. Last year Shelton’s strictly poor judgment and bad managerial decisions cost the Pirates 7 to 8 ballgames. That would have been enough to get them over .500. This was a significant non-move by the Pirates. They allowed him to continue managing this club in 2025. It will be interesting to see if he makes it through the season. It’s play ball later this afternoon with Paul Skenes starting a Cy Young winning year. Let’s hope that he is not the only bright spot that happens this year. Only time will tell. See you tomorrow with the opening game Pirates Morning Report.

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Pirates Morning Report: Planning For Failure

The Pirates made some roster moves over the weekend and proved once again that they have no interest in winning. As I predicted, the 13 best players will not be on the opening day roster. Not all of the moves were bad; they designated for assignment Josh Palacios and optioned Henry Davis to AAA. Unfortunately, they did the same thing with Billy Cook and Nick Yorke. Now, you could make an argument that Cook was not ready, but Yorke should be on the team. Is Yorke better than Adam Frazier? Is Yorke better than some non-roster player that they are going to put on first base? Is Yorke better than Jack Suwinski and Ji Hwan Bae? Yes, to all three questions. They put Hunter Stratton on the 40-man roster. That does not mean that he definitely will make the team. The Pirates have already done a great job of putting their better pitchers in AAA. All of this is done to keep players from getting their major league service to become arbitration eligible. The Pirates are the masters of this. I would love to see the Indianapolis Indians play the Pirates in a three-game series with something on the line. I am sure the Indians would sweep them. Stratton’s stats at first glance look really good. Consider this: in his last 33 appearances of 2024, the Pirates lost 24 of those games. This guy only performed well in low-leverage situations. If he makes the roster, he will replace another young arm. That young arm should make the team. The final 26-man roster of the Pirates will securely entrench them in mediocrity. I just read that the young arm is most likely Kyle Nicolas. Hunter Stratton the king of blow out games is most likely going to make the team. It just keeps getting worse.

You can tell that the Pirate players are pretty much fed up with the organization. They will do anything to try and get off the team. The perfect example of this is the horrible spring that Liovar Peguero had. He routinely booted ground balls in the field, batted .133, and swung at just about every pitch. You could tell he had no interest in making this team. I am sure he would love to go to another team or be DFA’d. Who wants to play for Derek Shelton? He routinely throws his players under the bus to hide his managerial blunders. When he fails to make an obvious managerial move, he will say that the player that was incorrectly left in the game should have executed better. The first sign that this organization is serious about winning is when they show Shelton the door. This is a team that finished last in their division. They will most likely open the season with the same team that finished in last place and somehow be weaker defensively. All of this when you have the best pitcher in baseball. As I have written before, this could all change in a heartbeat if a trade is made. The chance of this happening seems to get less and less with every passing day. I really do hope that I am all wet about this and that they will contend this year. I will gladly eat crow for a playoff run.

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Pirates Morning Report: One Week To Go

In seven days the Pirates will open the 2025 Major League Baseball season in Miami. This is the most pessimistic I have been in a long time heading into a season. I stirred things up on X. I said the Pirates would lose 100 games. They would come close to having a season like the White Sox of 2024. Do I really think the Pirates are going to lose 100 games? No. I will say this, there is more of a chance of them losing 100 games than winning 80+ games. Is it possible for this team as it presently sits, to play meaningful games in September? For me, the season would be a rousing success if the Pirates played meaningful games in September. Missing the playoffs by about 3 or 4 games would mean they would be in it until the last week of the season. What must happen if the Pirates are going to do this. Maybe not as much as you might think. However, they will need to show a lot of improvement in certain areas.

None more so than the anemic offense, which was not improved at all by any moves in the off season. The Pirates obviously are hoping that a lot of players are going to get better at the plate. This team was 24th in runs scored last year. The Pirates need to make a 20 point improvement on OPS+. I am not interested in who brings the number up. This has to be a team effort. The Pirates do not have a player capable of putting a team on his back. No one can carry it for 2 months. Oneil Cruz comes close to such a player. However, it is way too hopeful to expect him to have an MVP type of season. The Pirates have a new hitting coach. I am not too sure he will improve this club’s offense by 20%. If September baseball is going to have any meaning this has got to happen.

The bullpen must perform better than it did last year. The Pirates added pitching guru Brent Strom as assistant pitching coach. I assume he is going to be out in the bullpen. The Pirates did nothing to really bolster the bullpen. They added two lefthanders via free agency. Both of them are above average relievers and certainly better than any lefty they had last year. Ryan Borucki is another lefty option. When healthy, he pitches well. However, he rarely makes it through a season without something going wrong. The bullpen overall last year ranked 21st in baseball. If the Pirates are going to have any chance, the team will need to improve to a top 10. No matter who winds up being the closer this year, the Pirates must do better than having 29 blown saves. That put them 3rd worst in baseball.

They need to improve defensively. Seems like we say that every year when discussing the Pirates. Except for 3rd base and when Jared Triolo plays, every position player is an average or below average fielder. There is hope that Oneil Cruz can become an average fielding center fielder. I believe that can happen. The rest of the position players are set in their roles. I do not see much of a way for them to improve. Jack Suwinski is a horrible fielder. The same can be said of Henry Davis. Both have a chance of being on the opening day roster. If that is the case, there is no way the defense is going to improve.

That brings us to the strength of this team the starting rotation. I will not question this statement for the moment. If this team is going to contend, the rotation must perform better than the hype has generated. This means the starters need to pitch more innings. They must go deeper into games than just 6 innings. Seven to eight inning starts are going to have to be commonplace. This will ease some of the pressure for the bullpen and give Derek Shelton less chance to mismanage the bullpen. Hopefully some young arms not starting the season on the roster can come up quickly. They will aid the cause. Already bad news for the Pirates as I write this. Jarred Jones has elbow discomfort. Nothing more needs to be said. Next start June 2026.

This is what the Pirates will have to do if they are going to be relevant in September. That is if they stay in their current state. It is still not a given on who will make the 26-man roster. The Pirates already do not have their best pitchers on the team. It is unlikely that the best 13 position players will be on the team. Is it possible that the aforementioned elements for a successful season will happen. As the old saying goes anything is possible. In the next blog I will discuss what could happen in a disastrous season for the Pirates. I will also talk about one intangible that would be the biggest factor in such a season. Even though I think that this is the most likely thing to happen, I still cannot wait until opening day.

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Pirates Morning Report: Spring Training Update.

We are a little less than three weeks until the start of the regular season. The Pirates, of course, have made no big moves. They made another waiver signing. Johan Oviedo probably won’t pitch until after the All Star break. Speculation continues about who will be on the 26 man roster. I am a little surprised that when you see most people’s list, Endy Rodriguez is left off. I am no Pirate insider. Seeing that so much makes me think they might be starting him off in AAA. The other two names that keep popping up are Jack Suwinski and Henry Davis. They are having pretty good springs. I see Suwinski making the team before Davis. The one thing that people seem to keep forgetting is that they both stink defensively. The outfield is so thin that taking a last chance early flier on Suwinski is probably ok. If putting Davis on the roster means taking Rodriguez off, that can be nothing but a bad move. This also means that Nick Yorke, Billy Cook, and Ji Hwan Bae will not be on the opening day roster. Bae is having a good spring at the plate. I would rather take a flier on him than on Suwinski. According to the Pirate Broadcast Booth, Adam Frazier might be slightly injured. He has not played in over a week. If he opens on the IL, that may clear a spot on the roster. There is only one sure thing when it comes to the Pirates. The best 13 players will not be on the opening day roster.

The Pirates did another waiver deal. I wonder what the record is for waiver deals over a 12 month period. The Pirates have probably set it. This time they picked up reliever Justin Thomas from the Colorado Rockies. It is surprising, despite Thomas’s raw numbers, how positive the opinions have been on this pick up. Some have gone as far to say that he is the best pick up of the off season. Pitching for Colorado always will skew a pitchers numbers. Lawrence had his best year in 2023 and his worst season in 2024. On the positive side he has stayed healthy in these two seasons appearing in 125 games. Last year he appeared in 56 games. Thirty of those were in Colorado. In 39 appearances he gave up no runs. In two appearances he gave up 5 runs. He struggled in one bad stretch in late July and early August. During this time, he gave up runs in 7 of 10 appearances. All of this led to some pretty bad numbers in 2024. In 2023 he appeared in 69 games and with an ERA of 3.72 and an ERA+ of 134. He finished strong giving up only 1 run in his last 12 games. Still, last year he seemed to lose his strikeout pitch. He also lost his control. This resulted in the worst Strike Out to Walk ratio of his career. The Pirates are hoping he regains his 2023 form. Just add him to the list of players that the Pirates hope regain their 2023 form. Ke’Bryan Hayes, Jared Triolo, Jack Suwinski, David Bednar, Colin Holderman, and Mitch Keller.

The Pirates finished last in their division. They continue to do very little to improve their team. They seem to be giving jobs to the players who contributed mightily to their last-place finish. There is still time to make moves and clean house, but it is growing short. It is possible that this could change in the blink of an eye, but I am not holding my breath. The Pirates have lots of decisions to make in these remaining 3 weeks of spring training. I am betting they won’t make very good ones.

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Pirates Morning Report: Did The Pirates Win The Division Last Year?

The Pirates finished last in the Central Division in 2024. You would never know by the way competition is for the 26 roster spots. With 27 days until the season starts, the Pirate roster is pretty well set. There are only 2 spots up for grabs. There would be only one spot open if Spencer Horwitz did not have to have wrist surgery. We will go through the list of 24 players that are a lock to make the team, with a few exceptions. This situation could change if the Pirates make a trade. Alternatively, it could change if they decide to eat a contract. The Pirate broadcast booth even tried to put a positive spin on the lack of competition in pitching. They believed it was beneficial for Bubba Chandler. He will pitch spring games without the pressure of trying to make the team. That thought process sums up better than anything why the Pirates are permanently pathetic. Here are your 2025 Pirates.

Position Players: Endy Rodriguez, Joey Bart, Nick Gonzales, Ke’Bryan Hayes, IKF, Tommy Pham, Oneil Cruz, Bryan Reynolds, Jared Triolo, Andrew McCutchen and Adam Frazier. This leaves two spots open. I will look at who is battling for those 2 coveted spots on such a powerful Major League lineup.

Pitching Staff: This is even worse because the staff is already set. There will be one who may be on the bubble but only time will tell. I will look at who this leaves out. The rotation is Paul Skenes, Jared Jones, Mitch Keller, Barry Falter, and his clone Andrew Heaney. The bullpen will have David Bednar, Colin Holderman, Carmen Mlodzinski, Caleb Ferguson, Dennis Santana, Tim Mayza, Kyle Nicolas, and Johan Oviedo. The last two are the only ones that have a slight question about them. They might decide to stretch out Oviedo in AAA. Nicolas might be knocked off by competition.

Here are the position players that are fighting for the two spots, with what I think their chances of making the team. Jack Suwinski, maybe, Josh Palacios, hope not, Ji-Hwan Bae, unlikely but could surprise, Nick Yorke, should but won’t, Emmanuel Valdez, hope not, Matt Gorski, making noise, Liover Peguero, maybe because he can play shortstop, Billy Cook, should but won’t, Tsung Cheng, no chance because of experience, Henry Davis, maybe but where is he going to play, Jason Delay, no room at the position. Who knows what the Pirates are going to do? They might try to make up fake injuries to make the decision easier. My two choices are Nick Yorke and, if he continues to impress, Matt Gorski. To me, this is the perfect time to give Gorski a shot with really no one to play first base. If Gorski seems to cool off, then I would go with Ji-Hwan Bae because of his speed and versatility. If it were me, I would not have Adam Frazier or Tommy Pham on the team. Let the young guys play for God’s sake. On the pitching side of the equation, things are even worse. Barring any foreseen injuries, there are a lot of mediocre old guys that are keeping Bubba Chandler, Thomas Harrington, and Mike Burrows off the team. The only player that could be in jeopardy of losing his job would be Kyle Nicolas. Burrows or even Hunter Stratton could unseat him. As I wrote earlier, they may decide to send Oviedo down to AAA. This move would stretch him out and open up a spot.

As you can see, the talent laden Pittsburgh Pirates 26 man roster is pretty well set. The problem is the most talented players are not going to make the team. A trade could change all of that. There has not even been a hint of that happening. The Pirates could make a surprise cut and eat a contract. Yeah, right. We are stuck with who we have for a least the year. Here are the sobering facts, Jack. On the Pirate 40 man roster there are only 4 players that are lifetime above average hitters. They are Oneil Cruz and Bryan Reynolds who can possibly improve. Tommy Pham and Andrew McCutchen whose better days are behind them. The Pirates have one elite fielder in Ke’Bryan Hayes. The rest are barely average or way below average. What are the chances that Hayes will play over 130 games. Certainly, less than 50%. The bullpen will need to prove itself to start the season. Things could change but right now things look mighty mighty bleak for a team that is coming off a division title. Wait, that’s right they finished last in 2024. Well, you could have fooled me and Greg Brown.

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Pirate Morning Report: The Andrew Hearney Signing, What Does It Mean

This week the Pirates signed Andrew Heaney to a one year contract. This added to the strongest part of the team. What this boils down to is that it creates three possibilities. Let’s take a look at those possibilities, starting from what I consider the least desirable to the most desirable scenario. Knowing the Pirates like we do, they will probably do the first one.

If the Pirates follow traditional lines, they will use a 5-man rotation. In that case, Bubba Chandler will not be on the opening day roster, a decision that many fans and analysts may find perplexing. This will be yet another tactic by the Pirates. Their intention is to delay a player from becoming arbitration eligible. Such a practice can have long-term implications for both the player and the organization. Chandler is only 22 years old. He has shown immense potential. He deserves to be on the team at the start of the season. He pitched 26 games in the minors last year, posting impressive numbers that caught the attention of scouts and coaches alike. His merged AA and AAA stats were 10-7, which is commendable for a young pitcher facing various levels of competition. His ERA was 3.08 with a WHIP of 1.02, indicating that he was efficient and effective on the mound. In an impressive feat, he struck out 148 batters in just 119 innings. This showcases his ability to get hitters out. It demonstrates his capacity to dominate games. What makes his performance even more remarkable is his improvement. He was better in AAA than in AA. This is a clear sign of his ability to adapt and improve. If anybody needs to be in the rotation, it is Chandler, as his skills and performance significantly contribute to the team’s success.

The Pirates decide that they will go with a 6-man starting rotation, a strategic approach that is gaining traction in the league. With 3 young arms under the age of 25, it would be a great way to limit their innings for the year, ensuring that these promising talents are developed carefully without overexerting them. Each of the 6 pitchers has proven they can start and be effective. The only negative would be that this decision only leaves 7 in the bullpen, which poses certain challenges as the season progresses. With the way that The Shadow manages a bullpen, that could be a real problem, especially during high-stakes games when fatigue and injuries can easily arise. One thing that can help offset that would be to allow the starters to go deeper into games, counteracting the reliance on a short bullpen. The Pirates would consider letting the pitchers routinely throw around 110 pitches per game. The extra day of rest would help. This approach maximizes their contributions and provides more stability to the team’s overall pitching strategy. This would not only enhance the performance of the starters but also preserve the strength of the bullpen over the long haul, fostering a more resilient team throughout the grueling season.

The final scenario would be for the Pirates to trade somebody in the rotation. You would have to figure the young starters would be untouchable. Yet, depending on the return, I could see Chandler being dealt, as his performance might attract some interest from other teams. The three most likely trade candidates would be Mitch Keller, Barry Falter, and even though just acquired, Heaney. I mean, Heaney and Falter are practically clones in terms of their pitching style and capabilities, making them highly valuable assets if the right offers come along. It has been done in the past that a team signs a player and then trades him shortly after, often as part of a larger strategy to boost the team’s competitiveness. The Pirates still need bullpen help and shortstop depth or an upgrade, which could influence their decisions as they navigate potential trades. Ke’Bryan Hayes and IKF would be tradable as far as I am concerned, especially if the front office wants to shake things up and infuse fresh talent into the roster. I feel that the likelihood of a trade is small, yet you never know. The Pirates may finally try and really improve this team in a significant way. Certainly, starting pitching is the only real strength of this team, and any changes made will need to preserve that foundation. Everyone knows the baseball axiom that you can’t have enough starting pitching, and with what they have in the minors and their 40-man roster, the Pirates will put that statement to the test if they stand pat. Right now, this is an offense that does not have a lot of power or speed, and addressing this deficiency should be a priority in the coming weeks. Does anybody know the record for the longest stretch without scoring a run? I just looked it up. It is 48 innings, set by two teams. The Philadelphia A’s did it in 1906. The Chicago Cubs accomplished the same feat in 1968, the year of the pitcher. This Pirate team as it now stands, has a real chance of breaking that record. See Pirate fans, you thought you had nothing to look forward to.

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Pirates Morning Report: Tommy Pham

When the Pirates signed Tommy Pham, I reacted like most fans and media. I pretty much ridiculed the signing. This was another mediocre signing. The player is going to turn 37 in a couple of weeks. He looks to be on the downside of an average baseball career. When I thought of doing this blog, I could not wait to get to baseball reference. I wanted to crunch the numbers. I aimed to shoot holes in Ben Cherington’s statement that this would be a big upgrade for the Pirates. After reviewing the numbers of Pham’s 11 year career, I am about to change my mind. I also read about some of his off the field experiences. At least I am going to give this signing the benefit of the doubt. Even Cherington’s statement has some merit, only because the corner outfield position for the Pirates has been so terrible. As you will see Pham is pretty much an average major league player. In the case of the Pirates, this is a huge upgrade. I admit, I did not think the Pirates signed Pham to turn him into an everyday player. At the very least Pham is an interesting signing on many fronts. Let’s dig in on Tommy Pham.

The biggest negative about Tommy Pham is his age as he heads into his age 37 season. Andrew McCutchen is 38 years old. The Pirates are asking Pham to be their everyday left fielder, which is something they never required of McCutchen. He doesn’t have a history of playing many games in a season. In his 11-year career, he has only played over 140 games 3 times. One of these occasions was as recent as 2022. Yet, he did not have a great year, as he finished with a slash line of .236/.312/.374 for an 89 OPS+. Still a lot better than any corner outfielder the Pirates had last year. You have to question his durability at this stage of his career. Last year he had a 91 OPS+ over 116 games with 3 different teams. What makes Pham interesting is that despite his overall numbers, he has had some good stretches. He has also seen a lot of action in the postseason and performed well on the big stage. Last year with the Chicago White Sox he had a 104 OPS+ over 70 games. The Sox then traded him to the Cardinals where he had some history. He did not do well with them. They released him. He was then picked up by the Kansas City Royals. He continued to struggle but in the post season he batted .455 in the division series against the Yankees. In his career, he has played in 37 postseason games with a slash line of .315/.351./.492. The Pirates will be his 9th team that he will have played for. He was a late bloomer not having a full MLB season until he was 29 years old. He had a great year that year with the Cardinals. The next year he got into a contract dispute with them. The issue never really resolved, and it caused the Cardinals to trade him to the Tampa Bay Rays. He gave Tampa Bay a solid year and a half. As Tampa often does, they traded him to the Padres. While with the Padres he was stabbed on October 11, 2020, while leaving a strip club. The wound was serious enough to need surgery. When the Padres tried to downplay the incident, Pham decided to take legal action. He sued the club for various damages resulting from the stabbing. Despite all of this, he had a pretty decent year for the Padres in 2021. He played in 155 games and wound up with a 103 OPS+. He had another strange incident at the start of 2022. Before a game with the Giants, he slapped Joc Peterson over a fantasy league dispute. He was suspended for 3 games. Since then, he has had his ups and downs. He struggled during 22 and 24. Still, in 23, he had an OPS+ of 111. He greatly helped the Diamondbacks in the playoffs, helping them reach the World Series. He is an average fielder in left field. Still, for whatever reason, he is horrible in right field. This is the obvious reason the Pirates are moving him to left.

Certainly, Tommy Pham is not anywhere close to being considered a splash free agent signing. Still, he is not as bad of a signing, in my view, as it first appeared to be. The big question will be: can he stand up to being an everyday left fielder at the age of 37? If he can, there is no question that he can execute at the average big league level. The Pirates only have four other position players with similar performance. One of these players, Ke’Bryan Hayes, is more fragile than Pham. Certainly, until they acquired Pham, they did not have anybody even close to approaching that as a third outfielder. So, Cherrington is right when he says that Pham is a big upgrade. What he neglected to mention is that Pham is only a big upgrade because the Pirates are so pathetic. Pham has a certain amount of feistiness that is lacking on the Pirates. For whatever reason, Pham seems to help get teams into the playoffs. If he can just help the Pirates play meaningful games in September, he will be worth the signing. I think there is a better chance of that happening now, after taking a closer look at Tommy Pham.

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Pirates Morning Report: Dodgers, Yankees, and Mets, They May Have More Problems Than You Think

Everyone has just about conceded another championship to the Los Angeles Dodgers with all the free agent and spending moves they have made. This despite the fact that the Mets continue to spend wild amounts of money and got the no.1 free agent Juan Soto. The Yankees have just about been named the other sure-fire participant in this upcoming World Series with all the moves they have made, particularly when it comes to pitching. Even though these teams especially the Dodgers, have made the most noise and spent the most money this off season, they all have some potential problems that could derail their trip to the playoffs and the World Series. Let’s look at the team that everyone thinks is going to have no problem repeating as World Series champions, even though no one has done that in baseball this century. More on that later.

Even though the Dodgers have spent a ton of money this off season, they do have 2 things that could be cause for concern. The Dodger position players are starting to get baseball old. Max Muncy 34, Teoscar Hernadez 32, Miguel Rojas 36, Will Smith 30, Freddie Freeman 35, Mookie Betts 32, Shohei Ohtani 30, turning 31 in midseason, Jason Heyward 35, Tommy Edman 30, and Chris Taylor 34. It would be ridiculous to think that all of these players are going to have age related down years. It would not be surprising to see 2 or 3 of them not repeat their 2024 season. My prime candidates would be Rojas who had a 3.5 WAR season with a 113 OPS+, Freddie Freeman with a 143 OPS+ and Teoscar Hernandez with a 4.3 WAR and 137 OPS+. It could happen to any of the 30 something Dodger position players. The thing about age decline it comes quickly and without warning. The 30 something group can become more injury prone also. The second issue is, that even though the Dodger starting rotation is deep, they may to have to be deep, in order to survive. This has to be most the injury prone starting rotation in baseball, and they haven’t even signed Kershaw yet. Tyler Glasnow in 9yrs. has only throw over 120 innings once and that was last year but was not available for the post season. Tony Gonsolin has only thrown more than 120 innings once in 5 years. Blake Snell has only thrown over 130 innings twice in 9 seasons. Yoshinobu Yamamoto threw only 90 innings last year. Roki Sasaki has never thrown over 130 innings in his Japanese career. Then you have Ohtani wanting to pitch again. You have to wonder how that might affect his overall play. Even the Dodger bullpen is gray in the beard with 2 members over 35. As far as I am concerned the Dodgers are far from a lead pipe cinch with the issues they have. The team that is supposed to give them their biggest competition the New York Mets have problems of their own.

The Mets starting rotation seems to be mediocre at best. As soon as they acquired Clay Holmes, they put him in the rotation. He has only started 4 games in his 7 year career. He has had his ups and downs but overall was a very solid reliever for the Yankees. He had 74 saves and a 146 ERA+ for the last 3 years. With the importance of bullpens, you have to wonder what the Mets are thinking? With the exception of Sean Manaea, the rest of the rotation looks like either they have not pitched much in 2024 or when they have pitched, have not been very good. It certainly seems they need to make a trade. Edwin Diaz is coming off a so so year and the rest of the bullpen is below average. The did pick up lefty A. J. Minter who has been solid for the Braves over the years, but he only pitched 34 innings last year. Of course, the Mets picked up the free agent prize in Juan Soto. Soto was built for Yankee Stadium. I am not so sure about Citi Field. He is going to a park that is 7% less friendly to hitters. His fielding is ok, but he is a horrible baserunner. With the Yankees he had a 178 OPS+. I am not too sure he will approach this with the Mets. He may have to if the Mets are going to make the playoffs. The Mets did resign Pete Alonso, and they have one of the best players in the game in Francisco Lindor. The rest of their starters have an average WAR of about 2 which is just barely a Major League starter. This team made the playoffs on the last day of the season. I do not think they will be that lucky this year.

Then we have the Yankees, the team that could not keep the man that was built for Yankee Stadium. This may go down as their biggest failing as a franchise. They essentially replaced him with Cody Bellinger. Bellinger’s is considered an excellent fielder but the numbers do not support that. The last 3 years he has just been average. Like the rest of his game, it has declined also. He still is a good baserunner, but he will turn 30 this mid-season and for whatever reason he seems like an old 30. It will be interesting how he holds up playing in New York City. They haven’t done much else to fill the huge void left by Soto but maybe they feel they do not have to because they may have the best rotation in baseball, to go along with a very strong bullpen thanks to acquiring Max Fried and Devin Williams. Their pitching staff may be able to carry them to the playoffs but but even that is doubtful. The health of any pitching staff is always tenuous especially when they are showing a bit of age like the Yankee staff with most of their pitchers over 30. Even though he has come to the post often 3 out of the last 4 years Aaron Judge’s health can always be a little tenuous also. He is going into his age 33 season which could mean less than 120 games which would be disastrous for the Yankees. The Yankees have two X factors that are going against them, also. First they play in the toughest division in baseball and none of their competition have been standing pat. The Blue Jays, Rays, Red Sox and Orioles are all getting stronger. No one is getting ready to concede the division title to the Yankees. Second they have the Derek Shelton of the American League in Aaron Boone. He is one of the worst managers in baseball. You have to wonder what the Yankees do in spring training as their fundamentals are the worst in baseball. Boone’s in game decisions with the exception of Derek The Shadow Shelton are some of the worst I have ever seen. In case you have not figured it out I do not believe the Mets or the Yankees will be in the post season this year. The big spenders are going to have a short season.

This brings us back to the salary cap. Baseball is the only professional sport that does not have one. It has been quoted in the media that the Dodgers are ruining baseball by spending so much money. Despite all this crap about how a salary cap is needed baseball has shown that it is the most competitive of the four sports. There has not been a repeat champion in baseball since 2000. The other 3 sports cannot say that. Basketball has had two threepeats and in one stretch the Golden State Warriors and Cleveland Cavaliers played in four straight NBA finals. Baseball has had the greatest number of teams to win a championship with 16 different teams winning a World Series since 2000. Hockey is next with 14, Football with 13, and Basketball 12. This is not a huge difference, but if the salary cap was so good for a sport and allowed more teams to have a chance at winning, then baseball should be at the bottom of the list not at the top of a 24 year sample. Last year the two big spenders made it to the World Series for the first time. The way things look for those big spenders right now, I don’t see it happening again for a long time.

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Pirates Morning Report: Looking At The Young Inexperienced Pirates

With the addition of Adam Frazier, the Pirates have 7 players on their 40 man roster that have over 1000 Major League plate appearances. In the last blog I discussed what I called 4 intriguing players that might help the Pirates. That leaves 11 players that have little or no experience in the Major Leagues. I will list them in the order I think that they will have the best chance of making a positive impact on the season. To show what dour straits the Pirates are in, Jack Suwinski comes in 5th on this list. At the end I will mention a couple of other players, one who better not be given the opportunity to have an impact on the season and another who needs to find himself this year.

  1. Joey Bart, 28 years old. Bart was the most pleasant surprise of the season. In 2024 he slashed .265/.337/.446 which was a big improvement over his previous numbers. His defensive metrics were just slightly below average but he established himself behind the plate as the Pirates starting catcher for 2025. It would be great to see him continue to improve but if he can just maintain those numbers it would be a huge boon for the Pirates at the catching position.
  2. Nick Gonzales, 26 years old in May. Gonzales may not have been great, but he had a decent year at the plate, raising his OPS+ from 66 to 96 in 2024 with 100 being league average. Gonzales is a below average fielder at the moment but that can always improve. Right now, he is essentially the Pirates starting 2nd baseman and they could do a lot worse. His other positive is that he may bring something of value in a trade. There are not many Pirates on this team that can say that.
  3. Spencer Horwitz, 27 years old. The new first baseman. In 425 plate appearances he slashed .264/355/428 for an OPS+ 123 which is better than any Pirate did last year. He is an average glove at first base which is ok. He will have an opportunity to play an entire season this year and if he can just maintain those numbers, he will be another huge upgrade at the position.
  4. Jarod Triolo, 27 years old. Triolo after showing promise in 2023 had a very disappointing 2024. His OPS+ plummeted from 114 in 23 to 71 in 24. He did not have a bad last 30 games but overall his offense was horrendous. He is by far the best glove man of the group with a +8 in DRS over all positions. It would be nice to see him settle in at 3rd base if the Pirates trade Hayes and IKF.
  5. Jack Suwinski, 27 years old in July. Yes, there he is with still a chance to start in right field. As bad as he looked last year, his career stat line is not bad for a Pirate. In 1183 plate appearances his slash line is .207/309/409 for a 97 OPS+. His first two years were better, with last year being a disaster. I think the Pirates messed him up by trying to turn him into Kyle Schwarber by having him lead off for an extended period in 2023. He seemed to never recover from that. On top of all that he is a horrible fielder with a defensive runs saved of -15. I bet you can’ wait for the final 6.
  6. Emanuel Valdez, 26 years old. In 372 plate appearances his slash line is .235/.286/400 for an OPS+ 86. Another below average fielder with a DRS of -5. Why they acquired him I have no idea other than to continue the pattern of having below average hitters and fielders.
  7. Liovar Peguero, 24 years old. He has 227 plate appearances with a slash line of .237/.280/.370 for a 75 OPS+. He has been an average fielder. Expected to contend for a roster spot in 2024 he took a step backward in AAA, where he put up mediocre numbers. He will need to find something this year to stay in the organization.
  8. Jason Delay, 30 years old in March. Delay is a bit of a mystery man. The Pirates have not given him much opportunity and he has not really lit it up, but at times as shown some promise. I would assume somebody needs a backup catcher that they would be able to give a mid level prospect for. Delay is average behind the plate and in 373 plate appearances has a 70 OPS+
  9. Alika Williams, 26 years old in March. Williams has the rep of being a very good glove, but the metrics don’t support that with his DRS being 0 which is average. If he was an average hitter that would be great, but he is not close with a horrible OPS+ of 46. If he is on the opening day roster again, say goodbye to the season.
  10. Henry Davis, 26 years old. Maybe the new hitting coach will perform a miracle with Davis. His AAA numbers have been good to excellent. His Major League numbers have been awful. They are too embarrassing to print. I will be rooting for the guy but I think it is pretty much hopeless
  11. Tsung Che Cheng, 23 years old. He has not played in the majors yet and hasn’t done a whole lot at the minor league level, but for whatever reason the Pirates have him on the 40 man roster. I assume he will spend the season at AAA.

That leaves us two players that are at opposite ends of the spectrum. Josh Palacios who will turn 29 years old in July. He did not see a lot of action last year but did not disappoint. He continued to hit at below league average. If he sees any action this year the Pirates are in big trouble. Finally, we have former no.1 pick Termarr Johnson who will be 21 years old in June. This fall, when you looked at the Pirate prospects, it was projected that he would be brought up most likely in 2025. Now it looks like 2026. He had a good spring training last year but got off to a slow start in the minors, recovered somewhat, but did not really make any strong impressions. With a small sample size, he had a pretty good fall league experience. In 54 plate appearances he slashed .250/.444/.475. Hopefully he won’t become Henry Davis Jr. He will have to take a big step forward if he is going to make the Pirates this year. When you think about trades at the present moment, the two names that are at the top of the list are Ke’Bryan Hayes, who supposedly requested to be traded and Isiah Kiner-Falefa. Possibly Nick Gonzales and/or Jason Delay could be thrown into the mix. When the season ended and for most of the winter, there was talk of the Pirates trading for a right fielder. However, when you look at this 40 man roster, the position players are so weak that the Pirates are in desperate need of high level prospects that are very close to being ready to play at the major league level. This has never been made clearer by the fact if you just go on past performance, then the opening day right fielder should be Jack Suwinski. That is how sad of a state the Pirates are in at the present moment, unless you think that Adam Frazier is going to come to the rescue.