Category: sports

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Pirates Morning Report: Making It Look Easy Despite Misplays.

Final Score: Pirates 7 Marlins 2

Why The Pirates Won: Well, the bullpen did well again. Other than that, I don’t know why the Pirates won. They made enough mistakes to lose this game, but the Marlins managed to not even make this game close. The starting pitcher for the Marlins A. J. Puke, I’m sorry, Puk pitched so bad, that he made his manager puke. In 2 plus innings he gave up 4 runs on 3 hits while walking 6 batters. The Pirates should have scored more runs, but poor base running did them in for the second game in a row. After 3 innings it was 4-0 but you thought the Pirates may have blown it by not taking advantage of all the walks. However, the Marlins perfected the technique for hitting into double plays by hitting into 4 of them. They would have hit into more, but some bad hops tried to save them. Nothing could save the Marlins in this game. The Pirates added single runs in the 6th, 7th, and 8th inning, by getting a few hits, a walk and a sacrifice fly. Ke’Bryan Hayes made 2 errors but again the Marlins could not take advantage. The Pirates got another mediocre start, this time from Martin Perez, who could only go 4 and 1/3 innings giving up 1 run, 6 hits, 3 walks, while throwing 86 pitches. Ryder Ryan went 1 and 2/3 innings giving up no runs and Josh Fleming went the final 3 giving up 1 run on 2 hits and walk. One final note and I don’t know how much this contributed to the win, but the Pirate pitchers got the low-ball strike and the Marlin pitchers do not. Maybe the home plate umpire has some relatives that work at Disney.

Key Moment Of The Game: It came in the bottom of the 5th with score 4 to 1 Pirates. The Marlins had 1st and 3rd with one out when Ryder Ryan came into the game. The Pirates had really let the Marlins off the hook in the 2nd and 3rd by scoring only 4 runs. A big hit here would have gotten the Marlins right back in the game. Ryan shut down the rally by striking out 2 batters on 14 hard fought pitches. The Pirates started adding to their lead one run at a time beginning in the 6th inning to win going away. All Pirate fans should give a big shout out to A. J. Puke, damn it I mean Puk.

Next Game: This Afternoon, the Marlins in Miami. Jared Jones makes his Pirate debut today as the Pirates try to make it 3 in a row over the Marlins. I am not sure if the Marlins really know the regular season has started yet. The Pirates are 2-0 simply because the Marlins have played worse. It had to be challenging to play worse than the Pirates did last night. But hey, we will take it. Hopefully Jones will be able to do something the first two starters could not, give us some innings.

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Pirates Morning Report: Maybe For The Marlins and The Pirates They Should Start The Runner AT Third.

Final Score: Pirates 6 Marlins 5 in 12 innings

Why The Pirates Won: A very strong performance by the bullpen triggered this win. In 6 and 1/3 innings the bullpen gave up only 1 hit, 2 walks, while striking out 4. Luis Ortiz and Jose Hernandez were particularly impressive in the extra innings holding the Marlins scoreless despite the fact they started each inning with the phantom runner on 2nd. The Pirates never even had to make a play at the plate during those 3 innings. Mitch Keller did not have his best stuff giving up all the runs in just 5 and 2/3rds innings, on 7 hits and 2 walks. The Pirate offense hit 3 home runs that accounted for 4 of the 6 runs. Oneil Cruz’s opposite field dinger in the 8th inning tied the game at 5. Jared Triolo was having a tough day at the plate until he got the game winning single in the top of the 12th. The most important thing the offense did was getting a very effective starting pitcher out of the game after 5 innings. The Marlins bullpen was not up to the task of protecting a 3-run lead. Despite the Pirates making an error that led to a run in the top of the 2nd, their defense was outstanding and helped snuff out numerous scoring opportunities the Marlin had, especially in extra innings. Some players had rough games at the plate as the Pirates struck out 17 times with McCutchen striking out 4 times and Cruz 3. All in all, it was a great opening day win for the mighty Bucco’s.

Key Moments Of The Game: There were many key moments in this game, not the least of which was the jam that Mitch Keller got out of in the bottom of the 2nd. The Marlins had posted 2 runs and had 2nd and 3rd with no one out. Keller bore down and got 2 weak pop outs and a fly ball to end the inning, keeping the score 2-0. The Pirates returned the favor in the top of the 6th by loading the bases with one out but failed to produce one run. At that point in the game, they were trailing 5-2, looking like they were headed for an opening day loss. In the top of the 7th the Pirates made things interesting by getting 2 runs on an Edward Olivares pinch hit home run and a McCutchen ground out which scored Michael Taylor from 3rd base. Then Oneil Cruz went deep in the top of 8th, and we were tied 5-5. The biggest play of the game came in the bottom of the 10th. The Marlins were able to move the runner over to third with one out. The Pirates intentionally walked the next batter. Jake Burger grounded into a 4-6-3 double play, only made possible by the great play by Conner (I know I didn’t like it when they signed him) Joe, when Oneil Cruz threw a low hard one way left of the bag. Joe dove to his right, caught the ball, and managed to stay on the bag. The inning was over, and Joe had saved the game. In the top of the 12th the Pirates finally scratched out a run to win the opening game of the season.

Next Game: Tonight, the Marlins in Miami. Martin Perez will start for the Pirates to see if he can keep the momentum going. This was a real nice gritty win for the Bucs. They made some first game mistakes but were able to overcome them, and pull out the victory in extra innings, thanks to a great performance by the bullpen. They are going to open the season oddly enough by facing 4 straight left-handed pitchers. The Pirates left-handed batters are going to get plenty of practice hitting left-handed pitching. One final off the field question. Are the Pirate announcers really into hair gel or did they just get out of the shower before they went on the air? Enquiring minds want to know. I can wait to see Bob Walk.

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Pirates Morning Report: Opening Day, Optimism Rampant

The Pirates open the 2024 baseball season tomorrow, visiting the Miami Marlins. There is much optimism for the coming season. This time last year it seemed like I was the only one that felt the Pirates might contend for a playoff spot. They got off to a hot start, but in the middle of that hot start Oneil Cruz suffered a season ending broken ankle. That essentially ended any hope that they would be a contender. This year many are writing that the Pirates will contend for a wild card and might even win the division. Certainly, the Pirates seem stronger this year in every phase of the game. What will determine how the 2024 season unfolds and how successful will the Pirates be? It goes without saying that the Pirates will need to avoid the devasting injury that befell Oneil Cruz last season. Assuming that the Pirates will remain relatively healthy, this is what must happen for the Pirates to make the playoffs or win the division.

I previously wrote that Ke’Bryan Hayes and Jared Triolo must come close to producing the offensive production that they showed the last 2 months of the 2023 season, and nothing has changed my mind. The Pirate management team showed they have a lot of faith in Triolo by making him the starting 2nd baseman. Last fall I thought Triolo would be on the team, but in the role of the super utility man playing 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and possibly shortstop. I also thought that the Pirates would keep both Nick Gonzales and Liover Peguero. Instead, they will both open the season in AAA. They did not show enough in spring training to warrant being kept on the team, once it was decided that Triolo would be the full-time 2nd baseman. Keeping Alika Williams was a surprise, but I imagine that that he will be sent down once Ji Hwan Bae is healthy. That says something about the Pirate offense, where management is comfortable playing a no-hit glove man once in a while. Speaking of Bae, in 16 plate appearances in spring training, he did walk 4 times, so there may be hope for him yet.

Bryan Reynolds must get closer to being the player he was in 2021. He has been in a steady decline since then. Looking at two areas, WAR and OPS+, beginning in 2021 his WAR has gone from 5.9 to 3.0 to 2.4 and his OPS+ has gone from 145 to 127 to 113. In order for this team to win the division Reynold must at least play between his 2021 and 2022 levels. In an earlier blog I mentioned that the Pirates would be fine if Reynolds even played at his 2023 level. Since that time, I have changed my mind especially if they want to win the division. Reynolds has not had a particularly great spring, slashing .196/261/476. I never put a lot of weight on springtime performance. He could be experimenting around a little with his approach and swing. I feel that Reynolds will bounce back because he just seems to be a solid skilled player. How much he bounces back will go a long way to determining how this Pirate season turns out. If he would continue his decline, then this may be the first Pirate problem of 2024. On the other hand, Jack Suwinski is headed in the right direction. Using the same formula, Suwinski has seen his WAR go from 1.2 in 2022 to 2.2 in 2023. His OPS+ went from 99 in 2022 to 115 in 2023. If he can continue this upward trend the Pirates will be able to take another step closer to the division title.

There is no question that once the Pirates acquired Michael Taylor and decided to play Triolo at 2nd base they were going to put their best defensive team on the field in this century. If Carlos Santana was going to be at first base, they might be putting the best defensive team in the league on the field in 2024. Even without Santana this will be a very strong defensive team at least on paper. Will they play to that potential in 2024? In my view it is a very likely occurrence. I have always gone with Baseball’s Reference’s Defensive Efficiency Rating as my main comparison stat when it comes to fielding. Last year the Pirates finished 18th in DER. I expect them to crack the top 5 this year if they are going to win the division.

Then there is the Pirate pitching staff. The Pirates are going to prove or disprove the theory that you cannot have enough pitching. They have 24 pitchers on the 40 man Roster and only 4 are 30 years old or older. The Pirates have 9 pitchers that could easily go into the starting rotation and by mid-season that number should grow to 11. Two mainstays of last year’s bullpen are going to start the season on the IL, Colin Holderman and Carmen Mlodzinski, and it looks like the bullpen will not miss a beat. Dauri Moreta is going to miss the entire season due to elbow surgery, but there is no talk of getting bullpen help. With the high number of arms that is on this squad, hopefully, they will find 13 that will be very good to excellent in run prevention. The Pirates should be better in every phase of the game, hitting, fielding, base running, and pitching. The question will be, will this be good enough and will the players perform to their expected levels.

Can this team win the division? As long as they can avoid the injury bug, I would say they have at least a 50-50 chance. Could the Pirates win the American League East or the National League West, not a chance in hell. Thankfully the Pirates are in the National League Central, where all the teams are in a state of transition. I think it will boil down to how does the core of the Pirates perform, Jack Suwinski, Bryan Reynolds, Oneil Cruz, Ke’Bryan Hayes, Jared Triolo, Henry Davis, and the starting pitcher that day. They will either be the Magnificent 7 or the 7 Little Foys. It should be one of the most interesting and exciting seasons that Pittsburgh has seen in about 10 years, starting tomorrow. The Pirates Morning Report will start on the following day with a concise, no nonsense look, (well maybe a little nonsense, I just can’t help myself) at why the Pirates won or lost each game. I can hardly wait, but I must.

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Pirates Morning Report: Heading To Spring Training

The month of January did see the Pirates make one significant free agency signing. That is saying something considering how slow the free agent market is moving. We are about 7 to 10 days from the opening of spring training and there are many top and middle free agents still out there and unsigned. The Pirates can still make a big move especially in the outfield but will they? Everyone wants to talk about their starting rotation and signing one more guy, but I am comfortable with what they have. I was surprised they released Max Kranick. I thought he might be given a chance at being in the rotation after his Tommy John surgery. As thin as the Pirates appear to be in starting pitching, they obviously felt that Kranick was not the answer, releasing him to be picked up by the Mets. Nothing against Kranick but hopefully the Pirates are right.

Right now, the Pirates have 9 starting pitchers on the 40 man roster. From most likely to least likely to make the rotation they are, Mitch Keller, Martin Perez, Marco Gonzalas, Quinn Priester, Luis Ortiz, Bailey Falter, Roansy Contreras, Jackson Wolf, and Braxton Ashcroft. The top 4 non roster pitchers are Paul Skenes, Anthony Solometo Jarred Jones and Bubba Chandler. It would be shocking if the last 3 made the rotation this year but Skenes is expected to make his debut this year but unlikely at the start of the season. This count does not include J T Brubaker and Mike Burrows both expected to return from what else, Tommy John surgery, during 2024 but who knows? The Pirates do have 15 bodies for the 5 spots. I am not too sure a free agent starter is necessary. The two most interesting pitchers in this group are Roansy Contreras and Jackson Wolf. There has not been much of a word about Contreras, so you have to wonder if his career is shot. Jackson Wolf was acquired from San Diego when the Pirates sent Rich Hill and Ji Man Choi to the Padres. If nothing else this competition will make for some good discussion. You cannot really say that about the outfield. Suwinski and Reynolds are solid but that is about it. I have discussed the pathetic options in right field before and am not going to waste any more time on this. If the Pirates go into the season with this group, you can kiss this season goodbye. There are many competent outfielders on the market right now that are very reasonable. The only other move I would like to see the Pirates make would be to bring back Carlos Santana. I do not think it is critical, but it would be nice to see that glove back at first base especially in the late innings.

The Pirates did sign Aroldis Chapman to a 1 year deal. This signing does give me some optimism for the season. Hopefully he has one more year in the tank and can stay healthy. It gives great depth to a bullpen that looked pretty solid before they signed him. He has great experience in meaningful games down the stretch. The one knock on him is he has lost some of his command. That can work to his advantage with batters being antsy in the box with him still wielding that 100 MPH fastball. He was one of the premier closers but seems to have settle in well as a setup man. Again, if everybody can stay healthy this bullpen looks scary good. This may be an oversimplification but just get a goddamn outfielder please to make this team complete. I do not care if it is a centerfielder, moving Suwinski to right, or a solid fielding right fielder with a good bat. There should be some great infield competition and will there be a big-time bat immerge from that battle. The Pirates are getting ready to head to spring training.

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Pirates Morning Report: 2024 Off Season ZZzzzzzzz, Sorry To Wake You Up

To say that the Pirate off season so far has been disappointing would be an understatement. The off season is far from over and things could change, but the Pirates have done almost nothing to improve their team. The re-signing of Connor Joe I took to be a bad sign that the Pirates were not really serious about 2024. It is amazing to me how much of a positive spin that some of the media have put on the Pirate off season so far. My favorite article was titled, A Look into the Bucs’ Talented New Trio. The article was referring to Rowdy Tellez, Billy McKinney, and Edward Olivares. These individuals may have some talent, but I am not too sure that it is playing baseball. The Pirates did a little better in acquiring starting pitching, but not much. For a team that was talking about contending for a divisions title when the season was barely over, they have not shown much of a propensity for trying to obtain talent to accomplish that goal. Let’s look at what they have done so far, and I know this is hard, but try and stay awake. We are going to look at the 6 main players the Pirates have acquired during the off season. Ali Sanchez looked like he was obtained in case the Pirates traded a catcher, may have a bigger role, now that Endy Rodriguez is out for the year. We will do the players in alphabetical order because they are all pretty much mediocre, with none having much of a chance of contributing to a division title. That’s not to say that there is no hope but if history is any indication, then it will be very surprising if any of these players have a WAR of 2 or over, which means they are a major league starter.

Marcos Gonzales left-handed pitcher going into his age 32 season and the last two seasons have not been that great for Marcos. In 2022 he became a below average pitcher with an ERA+ of 90 for the first time in 5 seasons. In 2023 due to some forearm issues had to have for lack of a better description a rare surgery to decompress a nerve. After the Garcia experience of last year, the Pirates thought, sure why not, let’s get him. As in most cases with such a situation, all sides are optimistic that he will be able to pitch a complete and successful season. If he is not on the IL opening day I will be surprised.

Billy McKinney, outfielder AND first baseman going into his age 29 season and for all intent and purposes has played the equivalent of 2 major league seasons. He has a lifetime OBP of 284 and OPS+ of 82, which means he is about 20% worse than the league average hitter. Last year with the Yankees he did manage an OPS+ of 98 and got on base at a 320 clip. He is at least an average fielder which as you will see is good compared to some. There is nothing in this guys DNA to suggest that he is ready for some break out season in 2024.

Edward Olivares, outfielder heading into his age 28 season. In the last 2 years he has 559 plate appearances which is about one season of playing regularly. Just to compare, last year Byan Reynolds had 640 plate appearances with an OPS+ of 113. Olivares over that 2-year period had an OPS+ of 110, close to Bryan Reynolds, so what’s the catch. That’s the key word catch. Olivares is a terrible fielder. In 4 seasons his Defensive Runs Saved is -21. When the Pirates first signed him, I thought that might mean they were not going to sign McCutchen because here was their new DH. Seeing him in right field will be quite the adventure.

Martin Perez, left-handed pitcher going into his age 33 season. The good news about Perez is that he is under 40 and has bullpen experience. He has been at or an above average league pitcher the last 4 seasons. He is the best of this group of six players but that’s not saying much. He can definitely help this rotation and be an asset to the team. His signing has not been made official, so there is always that.

Ali Sanchez, catcher heading into his age 27 season. Sanchez has practically no Major League experience having only 14 plate appearances. He has spent 10 seasons in the minor leagues. He says his favorite movie is Bull Durham. In his four seasons at AAA he doesn’t have too bad of numbers with a batting average of .275 while slugging .402. He should get an opportunity to show something this year with Endy out for the season.

Last but certainly not least, we have good old Rowdy Tellez or should we say David Vogelbach, the Turtle part 2. Both he and Vogelbach are listed at 270 pounds. Tellez has 4 inches of height on Vogelbach to spread those 270 pounds around a little better. He is coming off an injury plaque 2023 and I have not seen or read where he is trying to get into better shape. He had the big year in 2022 with 35 home runs having 599 plate appearances. Of the free agent first basemen out there, he is definitely at the bottom of the barrel. His defense is below average and considering we had one of the best fielding 1st baseman last year in Carlos Santana, this certainly can’t be considered an upgrade.

Well, are you still awake? The Pirates did re-sign Andrew McCutchen and if he can stay healthy may see some time in the field. Right now, the Pirates do not have anybody to competently play right field, unless they use McCutchen. Obviously, the off season is not over. There is plenty of time for moves, trades, and signings to be made. For the present, the Pirates cannot be taken seriously as a franchise that is trying to win a division title in 2024.

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Pirates Morning Report: Baseball Season Over, Rangers Win World Series.

The Texas Rangers win the World Series 4 games to 1 over the Arizona Diamondbacks. The Rangers had an amazing playoff run not losing one game on the road. In a nutshell, they were the only team where their offense did not disappear for an extended period of time. The Rangers were 13-4 in the playoffs. They scored 3 runs or less 5 times and were able to win 3 of those games. In the 3 games in Arizona, the Diamondbacks scored 1 run in game 3 and 0 runs in game 5. They fell behind 10-0 in game 4 and were able to score 4 in the 8th and 2 in the bottom of the 9th to make the score respectable, but this was against the B squad of the Rangers bullpen. The Rangers deserved this title, and it was nice to see Bruce Bochy win another series. The Rangers fans get to celebrate the franchise’s first World Series title. For whatever reason, when the Diamondbacks got home, they became their own worst enemies.

It started in the 3rd game when Christian Walker led off with a double in the top of the 2nd inning. Tommy Pham hit a sharp single to right field. Walker went right through a stop sign and was thrown out at the plate. Many people were on the 3rd base coach for waving him on as he was heading to 3rd, and then putting up the stop sign, when he hit the bag. The argument was that the 3rd base coach should have anticipated that if the ball was hit to right field sharply, that he should have automatically held up the runner, because of the strong arm of Ardolis Garcia. I guess this is true when the runner on second puts his head down about 30 feet from 3rd base and never looks up again. In my view this bonehead baserunning play was all on the runner. I do not think it has been proven that you run faster with your head down compared with your head up and looking straight ahead. The Diamondbacks continued to pitch to Corey Seager even after Garcia was scratched from the rest of series. He made them pay and he made them pay big. In the final game the Diamondbacks could not get the big hit. They had 6 walks and 5 hits but could not score because they went 0 for 9 with runners in scoring position and leaving 11 runners on base. It was just like watching the Pirates and I thought I was done with that. For the second straight year, the 6th seed of the National League, screwed up the playoffs but could not pull out a championship.

The season ends and now the off season begins, with the Pirates most likely just sitting on their hands watching other teams improve their teams. This was a new era for baseball with all the rule changes and I must say they worked out marvelously. I liked all the rule changes, but I was skeptical of how much not allowing shifts would have an impact. It had a huge impact. There were many balls hit just to the left and right of 2nd base that would have been outs if the shift had still been allowed. Baseball was a much more entertaining product thanks to the rule changes, including the ghost runner on 2nd to start the extra innings. It will be interesting to see if there is any tweaking of the playoffs. I not too sure what they can do but I am sure there is going to be some talking going on to see if they can give the lower seeds more of an advantage. The only thing that I think might help is to start the wild card series the very next day after the regular season. Then start the division series the very next day after the Wild Card series ends, even if it is a sweep. This way there would not be such a down time period for the teams that have a first round bye. I don’t know if there really is anything that can be done. This is just what happens in playoff sports. However, because the baseball season is so long, people just want the regular season to have a greater significance when deciding who will make it to the World Series. My next blog will be about what baseball really should do to crown a champion, but I know they won’t. Of course, I will blog when the Pirates do something significant between now and opening day. That means my next blog about them will probably be in March.

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Pirates Morning Report: Series Tied Heading To Arizona

After 2 games the World Series between the Diamondbacks and the Rangers is all tied up at a game apiece. The first game was about as exciting as it gets with the Rangers walking it off in the bottom of the 11th on an Adolis Garcia home run. Game 2 was tight through the first 6 innings with the Diamondbacks clinging to a 2-1 lead. The Diamondbacks broke it open in the last 3 innings, scoring 2 in the 7th, 3 in the 8th, and 2 more in the 9th to win going away 9-1. Winning the 2nd game was almost a must for Arizona after the heartbreaking loss on Friday. Playing a solid game and carrying a 5-3 lead into the bottom of the 9th, Diamondbacks seemed poised to win the opener. With Paul Seward having been so solid in these playoffs, you had to figure that the Diamondbacks would pull it off. The dreaded walk came back to haunt Seward, as it just looked like Corey Seager guessed right smashing an up and in fastball that could have been just a hair more up and in, to tie the game. So far, the series has not disappointed with each team playing their kind of baseball. Now we head back to Arizona tonight for games 3 through 5.

The Diamondbacks did what they had to do in getting a split in the first 2 games. I think the most significant thing in game 2, was that the Diamondbacks held the Rangers to just 4 hits. This post season has been highlighted by team’s offenses just disappearing for a fatal 2 to 3 games. This could be the start of such occurrence for the Rangers. It will not be so much, if the Rangers win or lose tonight, but how they win or lose. If they score 5 or more runs, then I think they are back on track and will go on and take the series. If they are held in check again by the Diamondbacks pitching, even with a low scoring 2-1 win, then I think they might be in trouble. The Diamondbacks have been playing their game. In game one they had 4 stolen bases and one sacrifice bunt. In game 2 they had 1 stolen base and 3 sacrifice bunts They sacrifice bunt more than any team in baseball. Even though the Diamondbacks seem to be firing on all cylinders I do expect the series to make it back to Arlington. However, for that to happen, the Ranger offense must resurface sooner than later.

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Pirates Morning Report: World Series, Rangers vs. Diamondbacks

The World Series is set to begin tonight and for the second year in a row the National League is sending the 6th seeded team to the fall classic. Last year it was the Phillies and this year the Diamondbacks. Unlike last year when the American League sent the No. 1 seed, the 4th seeded Texas Rangers will represent the junior circuit. I usually write about the playoffs, but due to travel commitments I really ran into a time crunch and failed to do so. I am glad now that I did not, because I would have wasted all this finger energy typing what I thought would happen. I was so wrong. Essentially, I thought the playoffs would go pretty much according to the seeding with the Orioles playing the Astros in the ALCS and the Dodgers facing off against the Braves in the NLCS. I thought if any teams would be the fly in the ointment, it would be the Phillies in the National League and the Rays in the American League. The Phillies were the only thing I was even close to being right about. Let’s look at some of the surprises and oddities of this 2023 playoff season.

The wild card series were all 2-game sweeps. The home team was swept 3 out of the 4 series with only the Phillies winning at home. With the exception of the Brewers, the losing teams simply could not hit. In the two games, the Blue Jays scored 1 run, the Rays 1 run, and the Marlins 2 runs. With that kind of offense, you are not going to beat anybody, even the Pirates. What I found most interesting was that the losing managers did not seem to have any sense of urgency in these short series. I felt they let their starting pitchers in too long and it cost them mightily. For all of their pitching prowess, the Brewers staff got lit up for 11 runs in the 2 games. The Brewers offense could not compete with that.

In the division series, the surprises continued with Orioles and Dodgers getting swept 3-0. The Orioles, although a surprise to me, was not a surprise to a lot of people. Fan Graphs had them has the team with the least chance of getting to the World Series. They turned out to be correct, but I was still mystified because they had the best record in the American League. The Rangers had no problem blowing them out of the playoffs outscoring them 21-11 in the three games. The Eastern Division of the American League, touted all year as the toughest division in baseball did not win a playoff game, let alone a series. Even more shocking was the Diamondbacks sweep of the Dodgers. From Clayton Kershaw only getting 1 out in the first inning in Game 1, to Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman getting just one hit between them in all three games, it was a total disaster for the Dodgers. The Dodgers could only score 2 runs in each game. You may be ablet to beat the Pirates doing that, but not too many other teams. Another hitting machine the Atlanta Braves could not muster an attack against the Phillies, as they scored only a total of 3 runs in the 3 games they lost. The Minnesota Twins held their own with the Astros splitting the first two games in Houston. When they came home their offense went to sleep scoring only 1 and 2 runs losing games 3 and 4. In 8 playoff series there was not an elimination game.

That changed in each leagues Championship Series. The ALCS saw Houston for the second time in the last 5 post seasons participate in a 7-game series where the visitors won every game. The Astros were on the losing end of both series, and this was only the 1st and 2nd time in the history of baseball that the this has ever happened. Going into the 6th game of NLCS the Phillies held a 3-2 lead, heading home where they had been unbeatable. Again, the home team went into a hitting funk scoring only 1 run in game 6 and 2 runs in game 7 to be sent reeling out of the playoffs. At one point, it looked like we would have a rematch of the 2022 World Series. The Diamondbacks and Rangers changed that scenario by winning games 6 and 7 on the road to top off a very surprising post season.

We have the Diamondbacks vs Rangers in the 2023 World Series. The tale of the tape shows the Rangers leading the Diamondbacks in most offensive and defensive categories. Stolen Bases is the only area where the Diamondbacks have a decided edge. The Rangers scored more runs and prevented run scoring better than the Diamondbacks during the regular season. Alas, we are in the playoffs now and in my view the Diamondbacks are no fluke. In the playoffs, both the Rangers and Diamondbacks went through the 3 rounds with a record of 9-3. The Rangers scored 71 runs and the Diamondbacks 51 runs. The Rangers gave up 45 runs and the Diamondbacks 41 runs. The rule changes in baseball this year were meant to speed up the game and have the game return to the look and feel of the 1980’s. The Diamondbacks are the epitome of these rule changes. They steal bases, pitch well, play solid defense and do not hit a lot of home runs. The Rangers were the best hitting team in the American League. Only the Braves and Dodgers hit better than them. In the year of the playoff home runs, the Rangers led the American League in the long ball. Overall, the Rangers look very solid except in one very important area, the bullpen. With my track record, I am not even going to begin and try and make a prediction for this World Series. This will be a contrast in styles to say the least. The new rule Diamondbacks against the long ball Rangers. Being a National League guy, I will be rooting for the Diamondbacks. The way this playoff season has gone about the only thing I am sure of is that there will be plenty of surprises.

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Pirates Morning Report: What’s Next

The playoffs are in full swing, so we are not officially into the off season quite yet, but it is not too early to speculate and dream. The Pirates usually spend the off season signing low to mid-level free agents to fill in some gaps until prospects come up. The regular season was barely put to bed, when contending for the playoffs was bandied about. Since it is so early, let’s look at two things that are very unlikely to happen. The Pirates make no moves, or they make a big splash free agent signing. What would the 2024 Pirates look like if they went with just the players they have now.

As far as the position players are concerned, which normally number 13, there would be 7 players that would be locks to be on the team next year. Ke’Bryan Hayes, Bryan Reynolds, Jack Suwinski, Oneil Cruz, Henry Davis, Endy Rodriguez, and Jared Triolo. Triolo’s strong finish, where he showed he might have some power potential, and his solid play at first base, easily puts him on this team at the moment. Triolo ended the season with an OPS+ of 116, higher than any other Pirate regular. That leaves 6 spots for the remaining players on the 40-man roster. They are Jason Delay, Ji Hwan Bae, Vinny Capra, Nick Gonzales, Tucupita Marcano, Liover Peguero, Alphonso Rivas, Alika Williams, Miguel Andujar, Connor Joe, Josh Palacios, Canaan Smith-Njigba, and last but certainly not least Andrew McCutchen. Vinny Capra and Alika Williams can be eliminated for obvious reasons which puts us down to 11 players. If the Pirates sign McCutchen, which is not a given, he will be on the team. I always felt they should have signed McCutchen beginning in 2021. I will admit I’m not too sure if it is the best move now, even if he comes on the cheap. I know all the positives of signing him, but they are all on the subjective side. I don’t know how much that is going to win you ball games. If they do sign him to a 1-year deal, I would not be upset or critical. I could say the same thing if they do not sign him. For the sake of argument, I will assume they sign him, and he takes the 8th spot on the roster. Next, we have the trio Gonzales, Marcano, and Peguero. All can play 2nd base, Marcano is the only glove man and the other 2 have some defensive issues but supposedly are better hitters. So far, Peguero and Gonzales have not shown they are major league hitters yet. Gonzales has had a smaller sample size, but it is underwhelming so far. Marcano has shown for sure he cannot hit big league pitching. All three will not be on the roster. I do not know if even 2 should be on the roster, but I am going with Peguero and Gonzales because of more potential and the Pirates need bats. Marcano is a good glove man, but he is not elite. That leaves 3 spots. I do not see Alphonso Rivas or Connor Joe being on this team next year. They are league average hitters, but their defense leaves a lot to be desired. Connor Joe is over 30 and Rivas is going on 28 these are not players that are going to put you in the playoffs. That leaves Jason Delay, Ji Hwan Bae, Miguel Andujar, Josh Palacios, Canaan Smith-Njigba, for the final 3 spots. During the final game of the season, the Pirate broadcast booth said that the Pirates are going to let Henry Davis catch in 2024. Even if this is true, I do not think this eliminates Jason Delay from the team. This can increase the flexibility of the Pirate lineup with 3 potential catchers. I am going to put him on the team. The final two spots go to Ji Hwan Bae and Miguel Andujar. Bae because of his potential. If he can walk like he did in AAA, then he will be an asset. I do not care if he ever bunts. He has got to be able to do the process that he incorporated in AAA to get more walks. If he can’t do this then back to the minors he goes. Even though I picked Andujar, I feel it is a tossup on all 3 players. One of the biggest disappointments in 2023 was Smith-Njigba. He did get hot at the end of 2023 in AAA, but will that ever happen at the next level. He is heading into his age 25 season, so you have to figure it is now or never in 2024. Then there is the curious case of Josh Palacios. Here are the cold hard facts on Palacious. He is heading into his age 29 season. In 264 plate appearances his slash line reads, .239/.279/.413, for an OPS+ of 86. His WAR was -0.2. He is a below average fielder in every defensive metric. However, he always seemed to find himself in big situations and he came through many times to get a lot of big hits. Even though I favored Andujar I am still not sure you can put much stock in his good September. What all this is telling you is that the Pirates need an outfielder.

What better way to fill that need than to make the splash signing of Cory Bellinger. Bellinger had the very nice bounce back year with the Cubs having an OPS+ of 133, way above what any Pirate did this year. Very solid indeed, but he did not approach his MVP season. There is no question he will be a highly sought after free agent, but I do not think he will bring one of those mega deals. I think he is a 200-million-dollar man but not a 300-million-dollar man. The Pirates could certainly pull this off if they wanted to. Not a likely happening but if you’re not going to dream now, you will never have a chance.

The other interesting thing about 2024 will be what will the Pirates do with Oneil Cruz. They have a plethora of middle infielders, so would they consider making him the right fielder, much like the Padres did with Fernando Tatis. Would they move him to 1st base? No matter what, the major factor is that Cruz needs to make a full recovery from his broken leg/ankle.

On the pitching side of the ledger what would the starting rotation and the bullpen look like in 2024 if the Pirates made no moves. The rotation would set up like this. Mitch Keller, Max Kranick, Luis Ortiz, Quinn Priester, and Johann Oviedo. If Roansy Contreras can regain his old form, then he might get back into the rotation. J. T. Brubaker should be ready to pitch sometime in June. First round pick Paul Skenes seems pretty determined to make the club right from spring training. Despite his determination that would be shocking. However, it is not unfathomable that he may be pitching for the Pirates in June. The rotation does not look as bleak as you might have thought, and the bullpen is very solid. Just to list the 8 guys I would put in the bullpen, they are David Bednar, Colin Holderman, Andre Jackson, Carmen Mlodzinski, Dauri Moreta, Kyle Nicolas and rounding out with the left handers Ryan Borucki and Bailey Falter. My pick of Nicolas may surprise some but after that horrible debut he pitched 5 innings gave up 1 run, 4 hits, striking out 7 and his stuff looked awesome. Cody Bolton and Hunter Stratton are good options if any of the above falter or get injured. Will the previous mentioned Jarlin Garcia ever pitch again? Who knows? Only the Shelton knows. There are some big-time pitchers that are becoming free agents, but I do not think the Pirates will try to sign any of them. As much as I would like to see the Pirates sign Bellinger, I am not expecting that either.

Could this be the first off season where the Pirates sign a free agent that will get the fans excited. Like every off season, there will be plenty of names out there, both position players and pitchers. Would the Pirates make a trade to upgrade the team. Right now, they do have this overflow of middle infielders, especially if they decide to leave Cruz at shortstop. I do not see this happening, but it opens up all kinds of possibilities to improve the team. Looking at the team right now, I think there are three things that need to happen if the Pirates are going to jump to 85 to 92 wins which usually gets you in the playoffs. This year it took 84 in the National League and 89 in the American League. Ji Hwan Bae needs to become the AAA hitter he is, in the Major Leagues. If he could post an on base percentage of .360 or better the Pirates would have a great 1-2 punch at the top of the order with him and McCutchen, if he is signed. Oneil Cruz needs to put in a full season and have a 4 WAR year. The pitching has to make a comeback. Despite all the injuries the Pirates have an amazing number of young arms. Even more than what we named earlier. There could be a pitcher in AA and AAA that could be the big surprise in 2024. The offseason is always a fluid situation and right now we have no idea what kind of moves the Pirates will or won’t do. No matter what they do, it will still be one of the most interesting off seasons the Pirates have had in a long long time.

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Pirates Morning Report: 2023 Season Wrap Up

The Pirates won 76 games in 2023, a 14-game improvement over 2022. They wound up being tied for 21st place in a 30-team league. What is rather remarkable, is that they are about in the same place, in what I believe are the most important categories. In other words, all phases of their game need to improve equally. Looking on the offensive side, they are 22nd in runs per game with 4.27, 21st in On Base Percentage with .315, and 23rd in the comparison stat OPS+ with 92, where 100 is league average. Pitching, the Pirates are 22nd in preventing runs, giving up 4.88 per game, Fielding Independent Pitching 21st, with 4.40, and 22nd in the comparison stat, ERA+ at 97, with 100 league average. Nothing surprising here, with the both the batting and pitching being below league average. The Pirates did improve their fielding, finishing 18th in the Baseball Reference stat, Defensive Efficiency, compared to 27th last year. According to Wins Above Replacement (WAR) the Pirates worst 2 positions were catching and right field both ranking 29th. It is obvious that catching should improve overall next year. Coming in at 28th were 2nd and shortstop, somewhat surprising in my mind but those positions have a lot of elite players. Coming in at 24th were the starting pitchers and centerfield. Jack Suwinski and Ji Hwan Bae were the 2 who played that position the most. The Pirates were the 23rd best pinch-hitting club in baseball. The bullpen came in 18th in WAR. The first position to be in the upper half of the league Bryan Reynolds in left field at 14th. DH was next at 13th, where Andrew McCutchen had the most plate appearances by a wide margin over Bryan Reynolds. Thanks to Carlos Santana, who is no longer a Pirate, 1st base came in 12th. According to WAR Ke’Bryan Hayes was the big factor in putting 3rd base in the number 2 position. It certainly looks like Hayes will pick up his first Gold Glove. It is obvious where the Pirates need help, and I will get into that when we look at what the Pirates may or may not do going forward to the 2024 season.

I wrote about a week ago, that despite the Pirates winning 14 more games, the season was a disappointment. Losing Oneil Cruz for the season in mid April was a huge loss. The other injury, that was more or less swept under the rug, was the strange nerve problem of left hand reliever Jarlin Garcia, who the Pirates signed as a free agent over the previous winter. He had pitched in 285 games over the past 6 seasons with an ERA+ of 112. He would have helped the bullpen immensely, but instead never threw one pitch. I thought the Pirates would win around 80 to 85 games with the pitching being the main strength of the team. That’s where I was wrong. The pitching took a major step backward in 2023 and none more so than Roansy Contreras and Luis Ortiz. Let’s just look at the run prevention stat of ERA+, from one year to the next. Contreras’s ERA+ in 2022, 107 and in 2023, 67. He goes from being solidly above league average to way below league average with no physical problems. Luis Ortiz had an ERA+ essentially the same for both years at 92 and 93 respectively but he had one horrendous start at the end of 2022 that brought this number down. Both he and Contreras had huge drops in velocity at around 3 MPH less than they were throwing in 2023. Mitch Keller even though he did not regress never really made any big improvement. In 2022, he had an ERA+ of 104, 2023 ERA+ 105. Johan Oviedo in 2022 with both the Cardinals and the Pirates had an ERA+ of 126 in 21 games. This year, in 32 games his ERA+ was 103. Colin Holderman has digressed since coming from the Mets. They had better find a new coaching philosophy if this type of regression is going to stop. Then there is Robert Stephenson who the Pirates traded to Tampa Bay. With the Pirates, 111 batters faced, ERA+ 102. With the Rays, 140 batters faced, ERA+ 179. Are the Pirates really looking at these guys? The pitching which looked so good going into 2023 now looks like it could be a major concern.

With the stats, it is obvious where the Pirates need help. They need a right fielder. They need some stability at short and 2nd base. They now need some starting pitching because of injury and poor performances. What will the Pirates do in the coming off season? Who knows? What should they do in the coming off season? The subject of the next blog.