The Pirates made it to .500, 48-48 thanks to a finishing 4 game winning streak. The Pirates are 7-0 against the Marlins and the White Sox. I will never belittle those wins. The Marlins beat the Reds in the last game before the break. This does beg the question, did the Pirates really improve, or did they take advantage of poor competition. In the 3 phases of the game, hitting, pitching, and defense, let’s see what happened. They got a lot better pitching, stayed the same hitting, and surprisingly got worse on defense since we last took a look at the Pirates, 31 games ago. Let us look at the team numbers first. The offense continues to stink but at least they did not get worse. If you listen to the broadcast booth you would think this team is ready to become the 27′ Yankees. Dream away child. In runs scored they are still at 20th in the league at 4.19 runs per game. In on base percentage they have fallen to 27th from their lofty perch of 24th. In the comparison stat OPS+ there are now only 2 teams in all of baseball that hit worse than they do. There is no question their pitching has gotten them to .500. They showed vast improvement in every category. In runs allowed they went up to 14th from 19th. In fielding independent pitching, they had a huge improvement going up to 7th in baseball from 19th. In the comparison stat of ERA+ they went up two places to 12th. Going through each position and area according to WAR the Pirate rotation is hitting elite status as they are ranked 3rd in all of baseball. Too bad the rest of the team can’t even come close to that. The next highest ranked position is left field where Bryan Reynolds has played the most at 12th. Where the Pirates stink the most is centerfield (30th), pinch hitting (26th), catcher (25th), right field (22th), and the bullpen (22nd). Then we come to what I feel is the most disappointing part of this Pirate team the defense. In defense efficiency which takes in all aspects of a team’s defense not just errors, the Pirates now are 25th, falling 8 places. Essentially, they are one of the worst fielding teams in the league.
Looking at the individual players here are the culprits that are having horrible offensive seasons up to this point. OPS+ is the comparison stat on how a player compares with his constituents. It takes into consideration the run scoring environment, the competition and the ballpark the player plays in. It comes out simply a whole number with 100 being league average. Being a league average hitter is absolutely fine and if the Pirates had about 8-9 hitters at league average or above, they would probably be in first place. Here are the Pirate players that probably could not get a hit even if there were only 5 players on the field. Their OPS+ is in parenthesis. Yasmani Grandal (42), Ke’Bryan Hayes (74), Michael Taylor (53), Jared Triolo (59), Jack Suwinski (63), Henry Davis (45), and Alika Williams (48). With the exception of Hayes, these players are hitting at a rate of 37 to 48% worse than the league average. Even though I know this won’t happen, there is not one single reason that I can think of for these players to be on the team when play resumes after the break. More on that in part 2. Even with his hot 6 to 7 weeks Rawhide Rowdy Tellez sits at 92. What Rowdy are we going to see after the break. The April May Rowdy or the June July Rowdy. The other aspect of the Pirate game that will have to improve is the bullpen. You cannot be the 22nd best bullpen and make the playoffs. Hopefully the defense will improve just by the normal course of events.
Finally let’s set the record straight. This is not the second half of the season. The season is 60% over. The Pirates have played 96 games and there are 66 games to go. With the expanded playoffs the last two years, 87 and 84 wins have made the final playoff spot. Both years that final playoff spot made it to the World Series. Let’s compromise here and say it will take 86 wins to make the playoffs. The Pirates would need to go 38-28 to get to that point. I do not see that happening in the team’s current state. In my view the Pirates need 2 outfielders, a catcher, and at least on more bullpen arm. How they will go about that or even if they will go about that will dictate how this season will go. Part 2 on Friday.
The Goofy Game of Golf/Life Searching for the Answer 